Can the Rabbitohs Win the NRL Premiership?

The South Sydney Rabbitohs have become perennial finalists, having finished in the top eight every season since 2018. Despite this, they haven’t been able to go all the way in that, going as far as losing to the Panthers in the 2021 Grand Final.

But after a last-minute win in an all-time thriller against the same opposition, Souths are daring to dream.

The Rabbitohs defeated the Panthers in Round 8, with a try in the final two minutes securing the win.

Souths had a 0.1% win probability with our #NRL in-play model at the 78:19 mark, before Isaiah Tass crossed the try line, which saw the Bunnies take the lead and the victory. pic.twitter.com/whWwO58rmP

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) April 26, 2023

It was a true demon-slaying moment over the side that has tormented the Rabbitohs for the past four seasons. The Panthers had gotten the better of them in 10 of the last 11 encounters, also including the 2020 and 2022 preliminary finals.

So was the dramatic comeback a sign that the Rabbitohs can win the 2023 NRL premiership?

RELATED: NRL Tips for This Weekend - Round 9, 2023

Are the Rabbitohs Just A Finals Threat or True Premiership Contender?

After Round 8, the Rabbitohs now sit fourth with a 5-3 record. While they have dropped a couple of winnable games, including to the Roosters by two points and the Storm at home, they’ve bounced back to win three straight, which is the current best form in the NRL.

While the Panthers still sit atop our NRL Futures predictions, the Rabbitohs are now right behind in second. It was only a month and a half ago that the Panthers got the better of them, but it’s clear that in just six short weeks, they’ve improved dramatically.

As of now, the Souths  sit second in our premiership predictions, with an 20.7% chance of going all the way. This is compounded by a 91.7% chance of the Rabbitohs making finals, and a 67.6% chance of making the top four.

Watching Latrell Mitchell guide his team to victory with back-to-back tries and a staggering 12 tackle breaks in the most dire of circumstances, he showed just why he earned Kangaroos selection in 2022. And it’s no surprise that the Rabbitohs’ run has coincided with his brilliant form.

Mitchell has scored all six of his tries for the 2023 season in the past three weeks, which included a hat-trick and two try assists in the massive win over the Bulldogs.

TOO STRONG. TOO GOOD 😤#NRLRabbitohsPanthers pic.twitter.com/4uBoC4fDFP

— NRL (@NRL) April 20, 2023

Just about the only knock on his game at the moment are his goal conversions. Mitchell currently sits at a score of -0.1 in our True Kicker Ratings in the 2023 season, converting just 71.1% of his kicks at goal.

But regardless of this, he has been easily the Rabbitohs’ best on two of their past three matches. Combine this with the leadership of captain Cam Murray and veteran Alex Johnston (who recorded three linebreaks and 166 run metres this weekend), and there’s plenty of reason to like their premiership chances.

MORE: 2023 NRL Futures

Adapting Their Game

So far across 2023, the Rabbitohs are a side that have found most of their success through attacking the right side. Before this weekend’s match, 57% of their tries had come down the right hand side this season.

But on Thursday against the Panthers, coach Jason Demetriou identified a need for a change of style after the first loss. They had conceded just 15% of their tries down the left, and especially late in the game, the Rabbitohs were intent on shifting the play across to the left.

This eventually saw Isaiah Tass break through the Penrith line for the 78th minute try, with both of Mitchell’s tries also coming down the left.

Conversely though, the Rabbitohs left their own right side fairly exposed, with Stephen Crichton scoring two of his three tries on the right edge. Before this, the Rabbitohs had only conceded seven tries for the season on the right.

They’ll have to be particularly wary of this deficiency in the coming weeks. The top of the ladder Broncos, who they clash with on Friday night, have scored 45% of their tries in 2023 on the right, with multiple avenues to do so.

With five wins under the belt against a number of tough opponents and the second easiest remaining fixture according to our Strength of Schedule simulations, the Rabbitohs are very well placed to give themselves the double chance in 2023.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)