The Stats Insider 2019 Brownlow Medal Report is the single greatest betting tool in Brownlow Medal history and that is a scientific fact!

Well, it's my opinion, but I think it's a solid one.

For those of you who are either too busy to read the entire report or lack the required attention span, I thought I’d whip up a yarn that has some of the more obvious value plays and/or best bets that the report highlights.

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If you do have the time (and I strongly suggest you make the time!) then you are in for a real treat - chill the six-pack, ship the kids off to nans, light some candles, sit back and enjoy your special night in with the ultimate in Brownlow data dalliances.  

Fair Odds

'Fair odds' are the price our probabilities indicate the player or market should be, to provide 100% value, by turning our percentage probability into decimal odds. 

Outright 2019 Brownlow Medal Winner

Patrick Dangerfield: He is the short favourite with almost all the bookmakers, and far too short for anyone who thinks Tim Kelly spent the season taking votes off him, but the Stats Insider Brownlow Model REALLY loves 'Danger.' 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the model, Dangerfield walks out of the Crown Palladium with the Brownlow Medal around his neck in 55.7% of them. Yes, he is short, but with ‘fair odds’ of $2.05 (remember that includes possible ties) 'Danger' becomes a compelling favourite to back, given some markets have him much closer to $3.

Outright Exotics (Quinella/Exacta/Trifecta)

Dangerfield/Fyfe/Bontempelli: Knowing that the model loves Dangerfield so much, it is easy to plug him straight into any multiples. Looking down the list, the model has Nat Fyfe (22.9%) and Marcus Bontempelli (18.1%) clearly 2nd and 3rd in the Outright Winner market, with a big drop down to 7.5% for Lachie Neale and 4.4% for big Brodie Grundy.

If we’re trusting the model here at the business end of the Brownlow (and we absolutely are), then we can get a bit of value by locking in Danger into #1 in all our exotics and taking a Fyfe/Bontempelli, and Bontempelli/Fyfe approach to the podium spots. I’ve seen the Quinella’s hovering around the $6 mark, the Exacta’s are roughly double that, while the Trifecta I’ve seen over $40’s!

For those of you who love to chase the 'First Four' good luck to you, the model clearly sees multiple people in the game after Bontempelli, with Patrick Cripps, Jack Macrae, Josh Kelly, Grundy and Neale all within five percentage points of each other.

2019 Brownlow Medal Team Bets

Adelaide Crows

Matt Crouch: This market is a race in two between the brothers' Crouch, and whilst markets have Brad Crouch installed as a pretty firm favourite, the model loves Matt, who is winning the Crows vote count in 60.6% of the 10,000 simulations (Brad wins 43.1% of the time). 

It is not often you see this kind of discrepancy between the model and markets.

Collingwood

Brodie Grundy: He is MY best player of the season and should win the Brownlow Medal, but he won’t - and we should all just come to terms with this now, lest we add to the Max Gawn losses we wasted last year. What Grundy can do, comfortably, according to the Stats Insider Brownlow Model, is top the Magpies' medal count quite easily. Grundy wins this in a whopping 81.5% of simulations with Adam Treloar second, winning 14.6% of simulations. 

There is not much separating these two in the betting (some markets even have Treloar favourite) so I’ll #TrustTheModel and back the big man.

READ: Can a Ruckman Actually Win the 2019 Brownlow Medal?

GWS Giants

Tim Taranto: Finally, some juice! The GWS market is one of the most open of any club, both with bookmakers and with the Stats Insider model. The big discrepancy that I've spied was that Taranto - who has had an absolute breakout season - is actually predicted more likely to win the GWS count than his high-profile teammates (according to the model). It’s close, don't get me wrong, but for the odds some books are offering, I’ll take Taranto (36.1%) over the likes of Stephen Coniglio (30.9%), Jeremy Cameron (28.4%) and Josh Kelly (13.7%) every day of the week. 

I love when the model aligns to my own feelings, which also align with market value – let’s hope this one comes in!

North Melbourne

Ben Cunnington: This is one of those teams that I think is a crapshoot bordering on Gold Coast Suns proportions, but what struck me here was the sheer percentage probability that the Stats Insider Brownlow Model has identified in Cunnington. From the 10,000 simulations, the combative inside midfielder is winning the Shinboner's medal count 66.3% of the time. Shaun Higgins comes in second at 31.2%. 

That is some difference, especially given the price about Cunnington relative to Higgins.

St Kilda

Jade Gresham: We finish this little value summary with one that’s a little racier, but Gresham’s odds relative to his Stats Insider probability jump off the page. Bookmakers have installed Jack Billings as a heavy favourite for the Saints count, and for good reason - he has had a great season - but the model has him at 49% with Gresham not that far behind at 34.4%. Sebastian Ross is the second favourite at both markets and model (34.5%) but the value for Gresham on some books (up to and past $20’s) puts him into consideration for those looking to take a flyer in these teams markets.

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