AFL Rising Star Odds, Tips and 2022 Update

It feels like a yearly statement, but 2022’s AFL Rising Star crop is producing some of the best, most consistent performances we’ve seen from the competition’s youth in some time.

We’ve discussed the AFL Rising Star award and its value to the AFL overall, but there’s little doubt that as a title, it’s a nice addition to the growing resume of a young player.

Round 12 of the 2022 AFL season saw some brilliant individual performances that have generated plenty of discussion, so it’s worth exploring the contenders that will vie for this year’s NAB AFL Rising Star award.

AFL Rising Star 2022 Favourites

Sam De Koning ($5.50 at TAB)

The argument for Sam De Koning among popular media has rapidly grown in recent times to the point where he is most certainly the flavour of the month. Rightfully so too, as De Koning has taken over as Geelong’s dominant key defender and has performed exceptionally well against top-eight teams this season.

In the last three weeks, against Port Adelaide, Adelaide and the Bulldogs, De Koning has defended 10 one-on-one contests and lost just once. In those games alone, he has taken 9 intercept marks, 6 contested marks and has misplaced just 1 of 25 kicks.

Standing at a massive height of 204cm, Sam De Koning is ranked 7th for contested marks and 18th for intercepts in the AFL in 2022 and has established himself as one of the Cats' leading defenders. 

Nick Daicos ($3.00 at Sportsbet)

There’s some truth to the notion that hype is a major driving force behind Nick Daicos’ claim for the 2022 Rising Star award, but it would be a disservice to ignore his influence on Collingwood that extends beyond raw data.

Of course, he has been extremely, yet predictably prolific to start his career. Daicos, at a height of 183cm, is averaging 24.8 disposals and 4.7 marks, and is ranked 10th in the AFL for uncontested possessions and has been ever-present on the fringes of the Magpies' quick ball movement for the entire season.

What often goes unnoticed though, is the fact that his poise and calmness under pressure has allowed for other positional shifts at Collingwood. Coach Craig McRae has been able to use Scott Pendlebury in the midfield and attacking contests off the half-forward flank more in recent weeks, as Daicos has provided great stability on the defensive side of contests.

Jai Newcombe ($3.25 at Pointsbet)

The Round 5 Rising Star nominee, Jai Newcombe has emerged strongly as Hawthorn’s main midfielder after being selected in the mid-season draft in 2021. Clearly working well with Sam Mitchell, his coach at Box Hill last season, Newcombe has had a significant influence on the Hawks in multiple facets of the game to become the king of centre-bounce attendances at the club.

The 20-year-old Newcombe has committed the second-most clangers in the AFL in 2022, yet is also ranked 14th for tackles and 15th for both goal assists and metres gained. It’s a simplified style, but Newcombe attacks the opposition hard and looks to send the ball forward at all costs, a perfect approach for a team seeking as many opportunities inside 50 as possible.

In 2022 so far, Newcombe is averaging 21.8 disposals, 5.1 tackles, 4.7 marks and has 10 goal assists in 12 matches. His consistency has been refreshing for a player without much experience, dropping below 21 disposals just once in his last 9 games. 

Looking to the other side of the ground, Newcombe also has more defensive half pressure acts per game than the likes of Touk Miller, Andrew Brayshaw, Callum Mills and Jack Macrae, some of the AFL’s hardest working midfielders.

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AFL Rising Star 2022 Chances

Nic Martin ($4.50 at TopSport)

AFL Players don’t get added to senior lists much later than Nic Martin was on the eve of the AFL season, but it didn’t stop him from having 27 disposals, 10 marks and 5 goals in Round 1 against Geelong and going from strength to strength since then.

What’s more incredible is his statistical progression from 2021. Last year, Martin averaged 14.5 disposals, 5.2 marks and kicked 24.15 in 17 games for Subiaco in the WAFL. Now in 2022 at AFL level, Martin is averaging 21.4 disposals, 6.4 marks and kicking 12.8.

The 21-year-old has certainly been consistent, not yet dropping below 15 disposals in game, whilst also only being held scoreless just three times as a wingman. All this while rating above average for intercept possessions and elite for score involvements. 

With Essendon struggling for the entirety of the 2022 season thus far, Martin has been a beacon of light and a revelation with a long-term future.

Jason Horne-Francis ($13.00 at Ladbrokes)

More for what he could produce than what he has necessarily done so far, North Melbourne's Jason Horne-Francis will have every chance possible to put together some big numbers with the license he has in one of the AFL’s worst midfields.

Currently, Horne-Francis is averaging 17.8 disposals and 4.5 clearances per game for the Kangaroos, with a centre-bounce attendance rate of around 40% overall and his time-on-ground attendance sitting at 77.4%. 

We’re yet to see scoreboard impact that the 18-year-old has been known for throughout his juniors, and while he hasn’t had the one dominant display as yet, the explosivity and hunger to defend his teammates will keep catching the eyes going forward.

Jake Bowey ($26 at Pointsbet)

Being a regular in the best team in the AFL certainly doesn’t hurt your chances, but when we’re talking about one of the most level-headed young players in the competition, Jake Bowey's poise really stands out.

Bowey is no longer undefeated in his career, but he’s still an important part of the back half for the Demons, with his role that of a tidy user that marks the high half-forward of the opposition, rarely getting caught out defensively while providing adequate rebound with his 18.2 disposals a game.

Given he is well liked across media circles, Bowey will likely be a common choice amongst 2022 Rising Star voters.

AFL Rising Star 2022 Smokey

Josh Gibcus ($67 at TopSport)

To think that the AFL’s most recent generational team is only a season and a half removed from their last Premiership and have decided that a 19-year-old, first-round pick would be their most consistently picked key defender speaks volumes both Josh Gibcus and the Richmond program.

Gibcus has lost just 16.7% of his one-on-one contests in 2022, ranked well above average for even the most experienced of key defenders, while his kicking efficiency of 83.1% is even more impressive when considering the difficulty of kicks Gibcus tries to pull off.

The intercepting hasn’t been as prevalent with the number of Tigers who thrive aerially, but if Richmond ends up making finals, it’ll be on the back of Gibcus excelling defensively with spurts in attack. We can expect the hype to build as the season goes on.

AFL Rising Star Honourable Mentions

Finally, we can’t ignore other players who have been excellent in 2022, so early in their careers. 

Collingwood's Jack Ginnivan has kicked 21.12 in 10 AFL games, having at least two scoring shots in every match he has played this season, being held goalless just once. Magpies teammate Ollie Henry has re-emerged superbly after being dropped a couple of times, kicking 17 goals in 9 games and ranked top 20 in the league for marks inside 50.

Fremantle's Heath Chapman would be a genuine NAB AFL Rising Star contender had injury not interrupted his 2022 season, with a couple more weeks still to be missed. His strength at ground-level and ability to pick out targets under pressure has been extremely important to the Dockers' decisive slingshot-style counter-attack.

Adelaide's Josh Rachele started the season superbly but clearly began to tire after a few weeks, while Logan McDonald’s three-goal tallies for Sydney against Carlton and Melbourne have caught the eye.

To wrap it up, watch for Ben Hobbs to excel post-bye for Essendon with more midfield time on offer potentially. With 22 disposals and 6 inside 50s against Port Adelaide, the Bombers will want to get their prized recruit higher up the ground and in more familiar positions.

Best 2022 AFL Rising Star Odds

We've gone through all of the major bookies to find the best odds for all of the AFL Rising Star chances:

• Nick Daicos: $3 at Sportsbet
• Jai Newcombe: $3.25 at Pointsbet
• Nic Martin: $4.50 at TopSport
• Sam De Koning: $5.50 at TAB
• Jason Horne-Francis: $13 at Ladbrokes
• Jack Ginnivan: $19 at Neds
• Jake Bowey: $26 at Pointsbet
• Heath Chapman: $41 at Neds
• Josh Rachele: $51 at Sportsbet
• Oliver Henry: $67 at Ladbrokes
• Logan McDonald: $67 at Neds
• Josh Gibcus: $67 at TopSport