Just before lunchtime on Tuesday, the 3rd of March, four words were uttered which had the Stats Insider office buzzing.

"AFL Futures are ready."

Our data team puts a serious amount of labour into our futures tools, with this year’s projections more anticipated than ever before.

Not only is the testing even more rigorous in 2020 - with more than 20,000 simulations conducted - but we’re incorporating our own in-house player rating metrics for the first time ever (more to come on this later).

This season, Stats Insider is using an 'ensemble' model for our AFL season projections, which essentially functions as an amalgam of models incorporating both player and team ratings, as well accommodating the intricacies of the AFL fixture. In fact, each and every game has been simulated along with the projected Finals matchups, ultimately producing an even more robust set of numbers.

RELATED: Complete 2020 AFL Season Probabilities

So, without further ado, let's go inside our 20,000+ simulations of the 2020 AFL premiership season.

PREMIER PROBABILITIES

After two premierships in three seasons, it’s no surprise to see Richmond out on top as premiership favourites in 2020. The Tigers win the premiership in 20.1% of our simulations, a whopping 7.9% higherthan the next popular team...

The Western Bulldogs. 

They might be the 6^th or 7^th favourite at most bookmakers for the 2020 AFL Premiership, but our algorithms adore the 'Dogs - and everything presently happening at Whitten Oval. Their 2016 premiership hangover appears to be over; their offence really kicked into gear in that latter part of 2019, while they added a couple of seriously talented bookends during the trade period, with Alex Keath coming over from Adelaide and Josh Bruce joining from St Kilda.

The Brisbane Lions and their significantly more difficult 2020 fixture have been met with a note of caution by our analysts. Despite missing out on the Minor Premiership by percentage only in 2019, they are receiving just a 4.2% premiership chance ahead of the 2020 season, while it’s a similar story with the GWS Giants, who - even though they broke through to their inaugural Grand Final in 2019 - are considered just the 8^th favourites, slotting in with a 23.1% chance of making the top four. This incidentally is a number which has already factored in the Tim Taranto injury news which will keep the talented midfielder out of action for the next five months.

RELATED: AFL 2020 Schedule Difficulty Ratings

Geelong, winners of the 2019 Minor Premiership - and who've finished top-three in ten of the last 13 seasons - have had a hard time convincing the model that life without Tim Kelly, coupled with a headache of a fixture, will be straightforward. In fact, the Cats win the Minor Premiership again this season in just 10.3% of our simulations, while sporting just a 19.1% chance of returning to it's first Grand Final appearance since 2011.

READ: Predicting the AFL Clubs Most Likely to Fall Out of the Eight in 2020

Essendon fans have endured season after season of hell in recent years, though our analysis so far has them firmly encased in a warm pre-season glow, giving the Tullamarine-based Bombers a 47.0% chance of making the finals - along with a 6.2% chance of winning the whole thing.

SO, YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?

At the other end of the spectrum, we're not at all optimistic about an immediate reversal of fortunes for the beleaguered Gold Coast Suns. If their current 18-game losing streak and the Jack Martin defection to fellow cellar-dwellers, Carlton, wasn't enough, we've come in with another punch to the guts of the Suns faithful, with a maiden Suns September appearance taking place in just 4.1% of our simulations.

Adelaide hasn't seen September action since their 2017 Grand Final implosion, and have been given just a 13.7% chance of returning to the AFL Finals. It's a similar story with Fremantle and their four-season Finals drought, with the Ross Lyon-to-Justin Longmuir coaching change failing to embolden the projections, with the Dockers making the Finals in just 10.7% of our simulations.

Carlton made great strides when Brendon Bolton's four-season, 21-win tenure was ended and replaced with David Teague mid-season, and, while the bookies remain buoyant about a Blues' leap in 2020, we do remain somewhat sceptical, with the Blues making the Finals in just 19.4% of simulations.

Be sure to check out all of our projections for the 2020 AFL Premiership season. The Stats Insider AFL premiership prediction modelwill update regularly following each round, and upon confirmation of significant player personnel changes.

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