Ok, so let’s try this again.

When we first launched our AFL Futures back on March 2, the Coronavirus pandemic threatened to derail the season.

While we did squeeze in one round of matches, the league was understandably quickly packed away, with most of Australia entering an almost three-month lockdown.

Yet here we are at the start of June, and while we’d ordinarily be nearing the half-way mark of the season, we’ll instead be resuming from where we left off- only with an amended, truncated 2020 fixture.

Rest assured, the Stats Insider Futures Model has updated to reflect not just the opening round of matches, but also a schedule which now bears no resemblance to its original design. 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the updated ‘lay of the land’ ahead of Round Two. 

RELATED: AFL FUTURES 2020

ADELAIDE

It’s back to business for first-year head coach Matthew Nicks as he tries to restore the fortunes of a club who’ve nosedived since qualifying for the 2017 Grand Final. 

After this weekend’s ‘Showdown’ against Port Adelaide, the Crows will be off to Queensland where they’ll get shots at both Gold Coast and Fremantle, with a game against the Lions at the Gabba wedged in between.

By early July we’ll have an excellent gauge on just how much progress the Crows have made under Nicks. For now though, our model has them at just a 13.4% chance of playing Finals which is the lowest number in the league outside of the Gold Coast Suns.

BRISBANE

One of Round One’s biggest disappointments, Brisbane’s gains of 2019 seemed to have gone to their heads, obliterated by a more focused Hawks at the MCG in Round One. 

The Lions chance at redemption is solid with their next four matches all at the Gabba, while our model remains optimistic too, giving them a 72.4% chance of playing Finals- the 6th healthiest figure in the league. 

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CARLTON

Another Round One, another demoralising beatdown at the hands of Richmond. In fact, that’s ten straight losses to the reigning champs, with Carlton’s loss compounded by long-term injuries to Matthew Kreuzer and Charlie Curnow, while defender Caleb Marchbank is also set to miss a few weeks. The return of emerging star Harry McKay however gives the Blues a massive boost against a Demons team equally desperate to register its first win.

As for our model? Well it remains unconvinced, giving Carlton just a 13.7% chance of playing Finals for the first time since 2013. 

COLLINGWOOD

Few teams were as impressive in Round One, with the premiership-hungry Magpies completely smashing the Bulldogs at the Docklands.

As it stands, Collingwood is both the bookies’ and our model’s second favourite for the flag, behind only Richmond, who’ll they’ll square up against this Thursday night at the MCG. 

While the Tigers have had the better of Collingwood in 5 of their last 7 encounters, it’ll be interesting to see how our model reacts should the Pies salute. We’re currently pegging them as an 11.5% chance of winning what would be the cub’s 16th flag.  

ESSENDON

The Bombers barely snuck home agains the Dockers in Round One, but would have been immensely glad to have got the four points, particularly considering their injury list.

With the return of captain, Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker as well as Irish speedster Connor McKenna, the Bombers could be capable of taking advantage of a generous fixture with immediately pits them against three clubs who didn’t make the Finals in 2019.

We’ve currently got the Bombers as a 16.4% chance of making the Top-4 for the first time in 19 years.

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FREMANTLE

Neither the market, nor our model, is particularly buoyant about the Dockers in 2020, with first-year coach Justin Longmuir faced with a huge task of lifting Fremantle up off the mat.

They’ll be based in Queensland for the next month, by which time we’ll have a far better idea of whether their current 15.5% chance of making the Finals is harsh or fair.

GEELONG

You can usually set your watch to regular season excellence with Geelong, however they served up an absolute stinker in Round One, blown apart by a ruthless GWS.

The Cats are at a still healthy 15.7% chance of breaking through to their first Grand Final in 9 years thanks largely to a generous fixture which has 3 of their next 4 scheduled at Kardinia Park, with a Round 4 clash against the Demons at the MCG thrown in for good measure.

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GOLD COAST SUNS

The Suns extended their losing streak to 19 curtesy of a pitiful first-up performance against Port Adelaide which only entrenched their cellar-dweller status.

The bookies have them as an odds-on favourites for a second straight Wooden Spoon, while our model is equally brutal, gifting them just a 1.1% chance of a maiden Finals appearance.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY

The 2019 Runners-Up started the season in strong fashion, smashing the Cats and establishing their premiership credentials. 

They’ll resume season 2020 at home against North Melbourne while regaining the services of Callan Ward who missed most of last year’s breakthrough season. 

After the Kangaroos, the Giants have a trio of massive games against the Bulldogs, Collingwood and Hawthorn.

We currently have them at a 41.2% chance of securing an all-important Top-4 spot. 

HAWTHORN

Alistair Clarkson had his charges well prepared for their opener agent the Lions, with the Hawks stepping up with a convincing 28-point win. 

Most satisfying was the return of 2018 Brownlow medalist Tom Mitchell who led the Hawks with 25 touches along with 9 clearances, while Chad Wingard’s 20 possession, 3-goal performance was good enough to earn a place in Stats’s Insider’s ‘Team of the Week.’

The Hawks are now a 54.4% chance of returning to September according to our model, despite a tricky next month with games scheduled against the likes of Geelong at Kardinia Park, Richmond at the MCG and GWS at Giants Stadium. 

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MELBOURNE

The Demons had plenty of off-season soul-searching to do, and instead returned with a brutal 27-point first-up loss to the Eagles.

Inspirational, 286-game veteran Nathan Jones will return against the Blues this week, as will Christian Salem in what shapes as a massive game for both clubs with the Demons presently pegged as just a 21.2% chance of playing Finals this season.

NORTH MELBOURNE

The Kangaroos made out like bandits in Round One, trailing at every break, yet somehow slipping by a desperately unlucky St Kilda outfit.

They’ll resume their season against GWS at Giants Stadium on Saturday, with Rhyce Shaw’s chargers returning to Victoria to face Sydney, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs to round out the first section of their season.

Our model is currently giving the Roos a 55% chance of returning to the Finals for the first time since 2016.

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PORT ADELAIDE

On the one hand, they were only playing Gold Coast, on the other, the Power’s first up performance was impressive as anyone’s in Round One, helped along by their intriguing mix of establish veterans and tantalising youth.

Not only did Travis Boak and Connor Rozee both make our Round One ‘Team of the Week’ but the Power will also be bolstered by the return of Ollie Wines and Charlie Dixon ahead of the 2020 resumption again bitter rival Adelaide. 

The Power presently have a 56.1% chance of playing Finals according to our model and have a strong chance to get out to a 3-0 start with Fremantle to follow. 

RICHMOND

The Tigers are clear favourites to win a 3rd premiership in 4 seasons and will re-start their dynasty-seeking campaign with a massive clash against Collingwood this Thursday night. 

According to our model, the Tigers are 73.1% chance of making the Top-4 for what would be a 4th straight year, a task benefitted by a completely clean bill of health. 

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ST KILDA

Under Brett Ratten, the Saints are capable of anything in 2020, however they started the season in devastating fashion blowing their Round One assignment against North Melbourne despite leading all game. 

To compound St Kilda’s frustrations, the schedule-makers have delivered them a brutal first 4 games with matches against the Bulldogs, Collingwood and Richmond, with a Round 5 match scheduled against Carlton. 

At the moment, our model is giving the Saints a 36.5% chance of making the Finals for the first time since 2011.

SYDNEY

The Swans went back to their blue collar ways in their first-up win against Adelaide, smashing the Crows in the clinches with reliable veterans Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker leading the way.

While the long-term loss of Lance Franklin is a bitter blow for Sydney, it's somewhat softened by an incredibly gentle early season fixture that provides them with a solid path to 5-0. 

Sydney will have to leave NSW just once, while they get to host Essendon, the Bulldogs and Melbourne and all on the friendly confines of the SCG. 

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WEST COAST

The Eagles premiership bid will resume in Queensland where the schedule-makers have delivered them a ‘lucky dip’ of opponents ranging from the lowly Gold Coast Suns to the all-conquering Richmond.

Heading into Round Two, the Eagles have a clean bill of health, slotted in as third favourites according to our model and boasting a 9% chance of winning the club its fifth premiership.

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WESTERN BULLDOGS

The Doggies ought to be desperate to make amends for Round One’s horror show, pitted against the Saints at Docklands to resume their season.

Not only did the Dogs have to endure three months stewing over their tepid opening Round performance, but they also had their gentle fixture ripped away- two factors which have plunged the Dog’s premiership probability into just 4% according to our model. 

While the Bulldogs will be grateful to have Tom Liberatore return to their team this week, they’ll be without Lachie Hunter who the club have imposed an internal suspension upon owing to an unsavoury drink-driving incident.

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