AFL Expert Tips for Round 21, 2022
Last updated: Aug 5, 2022, 4:27AM | Published: Aug 4, 2022, 11:10AMTo give you an advantage with your AFL tips for Round 21, Stats Insider has AFL expert tips for every game this weekend.
Gain the edge in AFL tipping competitions with the help of our data-driven AFL predictions for Round 21 of the 2022 AFL season, the result of simulating every AFL game over 10,000 times.
For reference, AFL tipsters that followed our Round 20 AFL tips 2022 article correctly tipped seven out of nine games.
AFL Expert Tips for Round 21
Melbourne vs Collingwood
In this week's opening AFL game, we are tipping second-placed Melbourne with a 71% win probability, according to our industry-leading predictive analytics model, while Collingwood has a 29% chance of recording its 11th win in a row.
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Melbourne vs Collingwood is at the MCG on Friday, August 5 at 8:10pm AEST.
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast
Despite the Suns being betting favourites, our tip for this game is Hawthorn, which has a 55% chance of winning. We predict that Gold Coast has a 45% chance of winning.
Hawthorn vs Gold Coast is at the University of Tasmania Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 1:45pm AEST.
GWS vs Essendon
After simulating this weekend's Giants-Bombers game 10,000 times, our tip is GWS, which has a 53% chance of winning. The Giants' opposition in Essendon has a 47% chance of winning.
GWS vs Essendon is at Giants Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 2:10pm AEST.
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle
According to our model, the Western Bulldogs have a 73% chance of winning, while Fremantle has a 27% chance.
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 4:35pm AEST.
Geelong vs St Kilda
One of this week's biggest favourites is Geelong, who we are tipping with a high level of confidence. On the other hand, St Kilda is predicted to have a slim chance of causing an upset.
RELATED: Geelong Is Now the AFL Flag Favourite
Geelong vs St Kilda is at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 7:25pm AEST.
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
Port Adelaide is projected to have a 55% chance of winning by our model, while Richmond is projected to have a 45% chance of winning.
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Port Adelaide vs Richmond is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, August 6 at 7:30pm AEST.
North Melbourne vs Sydney
The tip here is Sydney, which has a 95% chance of winning, against North Melbourne, which is predicted to have a 5% win chance.
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North Melbourne vs Sydney is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, August 7 at 1:10pm AEST.
Brisbane vs Carlton
In Sunday's marquee AFL game, our model projects Brisbane as a 76% chance of winning, while Carlton has a projected win probability of 24%.
Brisbane vs Carlton is at the Gabba on Sunday, August 7 at 3:20pm AEST.
West Coast vs Adelaide
In one of the weekend's tightest games, Adelaide has a 52% win probability against West Coast, which is projected to have a 48% chance of winning.
West Coast vs Adelaide is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, August 7 at 4:40pm AEST.
AFL Tips For This Weekend - Round 21 2022
- Melbourne
- Hawthorn
- GWS
- Western Bulldogs
- Geelong
- Port Adelaide
- Sydney
- Brisbane
- Adelaide
RELATED: Tips for Every AFL Game
All AFL tips this week and probabilities in this article are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.