AFL Expert Tips for Finals Week 1, 2022

Last updated: Aug 31, 2022, 10:42AM | Published: Aug 31, 2022, 7:48AM

Stats Insider's AFL expert tips are here for everyone looking for AFL finals tips for this weekend.

Our AFL expert tips 2022 are based on 10,000 simulations of every AFL finals game this week, thanks to advanced machine learning and data.

AFL tipsters have had success all season due to Stats Insider's AFL expert tips 2022, with our AFL tips for this week being displayed below, thanks to BlueBet.

There are four games scheduled for Week 1 of the 2022 AFL finals, including Brisbane vs Richmond and Geelong vs Collingwood.

We finished the season with our AFL Round 23 tips 2022 correctly tipping eight out of nine games.

AFL Finals Tips, Week 1 2022

Brisbane vs Richmond

In the tightest projected game of the week, we are tipping Richmond with a 57% win probability. The home team Brisbane have a 43% projected win chance.

Brisbane vs Richmond is at the Gabba on Thursday, September 1 at 7:20pm AEST.

Melbourne vs Sydney

Finals footy returns to the MCG for the first time since 2019 and, after simulating the game 10,000 times, Melbourne has a 67% win likelihood. The Demons' opponents in Sydney have a 33% chance of winning.

MORE: 2022 Brownlow Medal Predictions

Melbourne vs Sydney is at the MCG on Friday, September 2 at 7:50pm AEST.

Geelong vs Collingwood

We're tipping the Cats in Saturday afternoon's clash, with Geelong's projected win chance at 71%. The underdogs in Collingwood have a 29% chance of pulling off the upset.

Geelong vs Collingwood is at the MCG on Saturday, September 3 at 4:35pm AEST.

Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs

The final game of the weekend sees our model favouring the home team, with Fremantle expected to win 65% of the time. On the other hand, the Western Bulldogs have a 35% win probability.

Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs is at Optus Stadium on Saturday, September 3 at 8:10pm AEST.

Expert AFL Finals Tips, Week 1 2022

Richmond
Melbourne
Geelong
Fremantle

A multi of these four tips is paying $5.19 at BlueBet, with a $10 stake returning $51.93 if our model goes 4/4 this week.

RELATED: Tips for Every AFL Game

All expert tips AFL and probabilities in this article are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.