AFL Preliminary Finals: Key Factors
Last updated: Sep 20, 2018, 4:50AM | Published: Sep 20, 2018, 1:51AM
AFL Preliminary Final weekend.
Melbourne is abuzz with excitement and hype, as Richmond and Collingwood go head-to-head in a Final for the first time since the 1980 Grand Final. Meanwhile, Melbourne head west across the Nullarbor to take on the hometown Eagles in the Optus Stadium cauldron.
RICHMOND vs COLLINGWOOD
It could be a six-figure crowd on Friday night at the MCG, as the Pies try to knock off the reigning Premier Tigers and the strong favourite for this year's Premiership.
This clash will see two of the AFL's best manic pressure sides go head-to-head, and the contested possession battle in midfield will go a long way to deciding who will seal a Grand Final berth.
Key Factor: the all-important final quarters
Fourth quarters have defined the rivalry between these two sides in 2018, with Richmond dominant in the final term in both clashes. The Tigers have outscored the Pies 13.6.84 to 4.4.28 in the two fourth quarters between the teams this year, an astounding differential.
In round 6, Richmond led by 11 points at three-quarter time and in round 19, the Tigers' advantage was just four points at the final change, with the Pies still clearly in contention both times. If Collingwood can close that fourth quarter gap, they can give themselves a real chance of beating Richmond.
They clearly learned from their mistakes of round 6, where they were smashed in key statistical categories:
- Clearances: Richmond won 36-24
- Inside 50s: Richmond won 67-51
- Contested Possessions: Richmond won 171-140
By round 19, they were clearly a different and better side:
- Clearances: Collingwood won 45-34
- Inside 50s: Richmond won 57-47
- Contested Possessions: Collingwood won 163-154
If Collingwood can withstand Richmond's incredible pressure and learn the lessons from their previous defeats they have a real chance to dethrone the Premiers - but, that's a BIG if.
Go to our Match Page to view predictions.
WEST COAST vs MELBOURNE
Melbourne will try to keep their fairytale September story alive on Saturday afternoon, as they take on a rested West Coast after the Eagles won their first final against the Pies to earn themselves a week off.
The Demons chaotic midfield pressure game style will go head-to-head with the pinpoint disposal of the Eagles, not to mention the two-headed forward beast of Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling: the Eagles are 11-0 this season when both forwards play.
Key Factor: the contested possession count
The Finals have seen increased congestion, and therefore increased contested possessions, and they'll be the most important factor going into Saturday's clash.
The Demons outscore teams by 18 contested possessions per game in 2018 and are the leading contested outfit in the AFL. Melbourne's 2018 H&A ranking has them as the 2nd best contested possession team in recorded AFL history, per AFL media.
West Coast meanwhile are defined by their ability to use the contested ball to impact games. According to AFL data:
- West Coast are 17-0 when their contested possession count is -11 or better
- West Coast are 0-6 when their contested possession count is -12 or worse
If Melbourne can overcome the pressure-cooker environment Optus Stadium will create, and do what they do best - control the midfield - they might very well continue their fairytale on to Grand Final day.
Go to our Match Page to view predictions.
