AFL Round 1 Identity Check: Are the Cats back on track in 2019?
Last updated: Mar 26, 2019, 6:44AM | Published: Mar 25, 2019, 5:18AM
A weekly statistical check-up for six patients, I mean AFL clubs.
In the waiting room today we have…
GEELONG CATS
The Cats have been excellent for some time now, though that excellence comes with an asterisk when we consider their performances in AFL Finals since winning the 2011 flag.
Despite having a brilliant upper echelon of players - think: Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Hawkins and their budding superstar, Tim Kelly - the Cats have definitely underperformed over the past few seasons with regular season finishes of 2nd, 2nd and 8th resulting in just two wins in September from their six post-season matches.
Credit to the Cats, though, for identifying their biggest weakness, which has most clearly centred on the team's inability to consistently compete at the coalface, in particular generating clearances, and tackling.
AFL CLEARANCE DIFFERENTIAL RANKING: GEELONG
2016: 4th
2017: 10th
2018: 13th
AFL TACKLE DIFFERENTIAL RANKING: GEELONG
2016: 6th
2017: 11th
2018: 16th
This is now what makes both Geelong’s work from a list management perspective - and Friday night’s result - so impressive.
The Cats had six new faces in their Round 1 lineup against Collingwood, four of which were AFL debutants. And, it was the new faces that provided so much grit to the reliable polish of the Cats’ stars, contributing 19 of the teams 63 total tackles, and helping the Cats prevail in the tackle count 63-49. Geelong also won the clearance count, despite ceding a large differential in hit-outs, always an excellent sign of the excellent work being done at ground level.
Geelong have some outrageously good players on their playing list, however if their foot soldiers can contribute to the scrap and claw, and ensure the brilliance of Patty Dangerfield and co. doesn’t go to waste, then a deeper September run for Geelong could most definitely be on the cards.
ADELAIDE CROWS
When the Crows made - and started favourites in - the 2017 AFL Grand Final, they did so off the back of a scintillating attack which saw them post 247 points more than the next best home and away season offense.
It was an attack that thrived on speed, space and drive. They boasted (and still do) an excellent mix of inside/outside midfielders which was able to deliver to their talented forwards, while the likes of Talia and Lever ensured that a good deal of incoming packages invariantly failed to reach their destination. The Crows were second in the AFL in 2017 for marks inside 50 differential, and second in the league for meters gained.
Since that Grand Final appearance, however, the Crows have looked a shadow of themselves. Many excused their 2018 inability to make the AFL Finals on quite a lengthy injury list, however 2019 however was supposed to see a sharp return to form with many nominating the Crows as a prime bounce-back prospect.
Adelaide started Round 1 four goal favorites at home against the Hawks on Saturday, yet failed to win a single quarter en-route to a 32 point loss, scoring just 55 points - their lowest output since round 12, 2014.
What seems to have disappeared from the Crows is that free-flowing attack. Watching this Adelaide team is a vastly different experience than their Grand Final season. They're completely lacking in flow and drive, evidenced in last season falling to a 13th league rank in terms of inside 50 differential, and 10th for meters gained.
This squeeze continued in the Crows' loss to Hawthorn on Saturday, tallying up 400 less total meters despite having more than 80 extra possessions. Again though, that healthy possession advantage was mainly limited to handballs which prevented any drive for the Crows. Their kick-to-handball ratio was easily the lowest of the opening round, while their lack of penetrative disposal meant that they generated a scoring shot every 22 possessions, which - outside of the Kangaroos - was the least efficient of the week.
We're just one game into the season but the most alarming sign for Adelaide will be that the problems that plagued them in 2018 are the exact same ones staring them in the face so far this year.
BRISBANE LIONS
Of all the teams who generated pre-season buzz, it's hard to think of a team who delivered more on their offseason promise than the Brisbane Lions.
It’s been a decade since their last AFL Finals appearance, let alone a winning season for the club, yet there’s a genuine sense that things are finally starting to turn around.
A quarter in against the reigning AFL Premiers on Saturday night, things weren’t looking great, though. That the Lions were able to withstand a five goal to one first quarter deficit, and kick 14 of the game's last 16 goals to ultimately maul the West Coast Eagles was one of the more refreshing stories of the round.
One of just three teams to breach 100 points scored in Round One, and in the hot, slimy and humid conditions of the Gabba it was incredibly impressive that all 15 of their goals came from midfielders and small forwards, without much contribution from their emerging star forward, Eric Hipwood.
The humid conditions also didn’t prevent the Lions posting the third best disposal efficiency of the weekend (74.9%), which allowed Brisbane to break the game apart on the outside generating an extra 60 uncontested possessions which also contributed to an 847 metre edge over their opponents.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Yes, the Dogs were one of quite a few underdogs to have either won or covered their handicap on the weekend, but there were few teams whose overall performance was in sharper contrast to what they’ve been serving up over the last couple of seasons.
And don’t be fooled by the final margin of just 17 points. The 'expected score' for this match indicated a much larger Bulldogs' win, with many of the statistical indicators supporting as much. The Dogs had +21 inside 50s and a complete dominance around the stoppages, with Bulldog fans' memories being taken back to the midfield mania of 2016, with many hoping that perhaps Luke Beveridge indeed has a few more tricks up his sleeve.
PORT ADELAIDE POWER
On the road and three goals down to AFL Premiership fancy Melbourne, Port fans could have been forgiven for thinking season 2019 was headed for yet more disappointment.
What followed was one of the more impressive wins of the weekend, turning around the early deficit, taking a half time lead and keeping Melbourne to just three second half goals en-route to a 26 point victory.
The Power have confounded many on the outside with their zigzag approach to list management: one year bringing in a host of experienced big fish, only to seemingly reject that path, instead focussing on the draft the next year.
And though the dynamics of Port’s list are perhaps best left for another time, it is worth pointing out that, like Geelong, the Power gave debuts to four players on the weekend, all of whom made brilliant contributions.
While the football world has understandably scratched its collective heads at just what direction the Power have in mind, what was on offer in Round 1 was an intriguing blend of youth mixed in with solid contributions from their more seasoned stars.
A definite team to keep an eye on throughout the season.
ESSENDON BOMBERS
Outside of perhaps North Melbourne, it’s hard to think of a fan base who would have been more disappointed with their team’s Round 1 performance, than the Bomber faithful.
The 72 point humiliation of an apparently Finals-worthy team with AFL Premiership pretensions was as humiliating as it could get for the Bombers.
Essendon was just one of three teams who failed to win a single quarter of football over the weekend, while no team conceded more acreage to their opponent, with a massive 916 metre differential between them and the GWS Giants.
Weird stat of the weekend - courtesy of the fantasy sports world - concerns the fact Essendon had seven players who scored 50 or less Supercoach points. Even North Melbourne - themselves victims of an interstate demolition - only had three players with such a minimal statistical impact.
That number might also call into question, just how deep this Essendon list bats.
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