AFL | Stats That Matter - Defence Wins Premierships

Most team-sports the world over have adopted some form of the ‘defence wins championships’ mantra. 

And it’s understandable too, considering that if you can’t consistently stop what the other team is doing, then any kind of success, short or long term, is virtually impossible. 

However at the same time, few consciously care about defence. 

Fans and broadcasters want action-packed games with big numbers and plenty of ad-breaks.

As for the players themselves, it’s the goal scorers who get mobbed by their teammates, while it’s the midfielders who garner the big paycheques and win all the awards.

Which leaves the defenders as the AFL’s perpetually unsung heroes. 

It’s the defenders who exist as the ‘invisible hand’ of success in the AFL, continually keeping the wolves at the door, prevailing as the most indispensable part of most premiership teams. 

Today, we’ll take a look at what defence has traditionally meant for our sport, what role it assumes in the modern game, while also speculating upon its function going forward.

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WHERE HAVE WE BEEN? 

It’s true. Great defence has invariably been the backbone of premierships teams. In fact, there’s been an overwhelmingly strong relationship between outstanding defence and premierships over the years.

Of the last 40 flag winners, all but 2 have been ranked within the league’s top-6 from a defensive point of view, while a staggering 30 of those 40 have housed top-4 ranked defences.

While indeed only 2 premierships have been won without the services of a top 6 defence, 8 have been won without a top-six attack, further indicating just how entrenched the defensive stranglehold is on our sport.

While we’ve ofcourse seen exceptions to the rule, with the likes of the revolutionary North teams of the 1990s prevailing without memorable defences, the reality is if your club hasn’t packed an elite defence in their suitcase, it’s unlikely they’ve returned from their holiday with any particularly wonderful memories.

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WHERE ARE WE NOW?

We are still making sense of a world where scores are plummeting. 

What’s noteworthy however is that amid the obvious offensive decline, brilliant defence remains paramount, with only the league’s very best lining up to collect silverware. 

In fact, it seemingly appears more difficult than ever to win a flag without being complimented by a top-tier defence, while we are at least still seeing periodic examples of clubs achieving glory without an equivalently excellent attack.

It was the Sydney Swans Grand Final triumph of 2005 which further solidified the primacy of defence in the modern game, especially considering the four previous flags had been won by teams more associated with attack than prevention.

Those ’05 Swans were a club whose offence ranked just 14th in the league, who averaged just 89.7 points per game and who only needed 58 points on Grand Final day to break its 72-year drought.

However, the Swan’s calling card was intense pressure in midfield, backed by strong numbers and an unyielding defence. It was a game-plan which continues to have a massive effect on the stylings of the modern game.

In many respects, the Western Bulldog’s famous 2016 flag, ironically achieved by toppling the Swans, very much borrowed from that Sydney template. 

The ‘16 Bulldogs ranked just 12th from an attack point of view, averaging just 84.4 points, yet like Swans, applied enormous pressure in midfield, and were backed by an incredibly stout defence which formed the bedrock of their team.

The 2016 Dogs were ranked 3rd defensively, conceding just 73.1 points per game, and stepped it up even further throughout September, conceding just 71.5 ppg against the league’s best.

While the league's modern standard bearer, Richmond, is certainly a team that can score, with the likes of Jack Riewoldt, and 2019 recruit Tom Lynch, gelling brilliantly as the 2019 season progressed, it’s been the Tigers’s airtight defence that's propelled its success, helping it claim two of the league’s last three flags.

While sure, the Tigers have been ranked top 4 defensively in both their premiership years (8th and 6th from an attack point of view), it's been their ability to bunker down even further come Finals, with the Tigers famously keeping the Giants to just 25 points on Grand Final day last year - the lowest Grand Final tally in 59 years.

Yes, we might be living in a universe where scores are falling, however it seems that no matter how sharply the numbers drop, teams that are able to defend best are continuing to come up trumps.

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WHERE ARE WE GOING? 

Well quite possibly into a ‘Brave New World’?

It’s no secret that the AFL is immensely concerned about the increasing drop in scores, with the current administration implementing a range of rule changes while flagging further game modifications to promote better flow, and potentially, higher scores. 

Whether these changes are appropriate for the sport is an issue best debated elsewhere, however any change will doubtlessly affect the kind of tattoo modern defences can continue to imprint on games.

Like any variation within the sport, be it tactical or by league-design, it’ll be coaching staffs who take the lead, with those best equipped and capable to think a number of steps ahead at an advantage. Alternatively, teams and coaches who can’t grasp the changing world will continue to find themeless on the conveyor belt of regime change.

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