Betting Ahead: The Search For Coleman Medal Value

We’re five games into the 2022 season and the league’s three leading goal scorers and the group of six tied in 28th place are split by a grand total of just 7 majors. 

The field of Coleman Medal contenders is as clustered as we’ve ever seen, as yet containing no clear-cut standout. Thankfully for punters, that means there’s still plenty of value to be found. 

In the pre-season we examined why the Coleman medal is the standout individual medal to wager on, at the time identifying a couple of decent betting options. Today we’ll use the five rounds of data we have available, coupled with a completely altered betting market to see if we can pick out another two who represent possible action. 

All odds referenced in this piece are available at TopSport. 

Let's get to it. 

Taylor Walker- $16-$20

It’s taken just two games for Tex Walker to remind the football world of his on-field prowess. After completing his suspension for unacceptable racist remarks, the Crow forward has returned and immediately put himself in the Coleman medal frame, even though his generous $16 price mightn’t quite suggest that. 

In two games he’s booted 9 goals while his 7 shots on goal per contest is already a league-best figure and a jump on the 5.3 he registered in 2021, and which placed him 3rd in the entire league.

If there’s a query on Walker (again, we’re focusing on the on-field stuff here) it’s that he’ll continually be weighed down by one of the competition’s worst midfields, the likes of which won’t provide him the kind of high-volume opportunities many of the favourites are able to count on.

If you are contemplating a Walker-Coleman medal bet it’s worth remembering that Adelaide’s next three games are against the Bulldogs, Giants and Carlton. All three rank bottom 8 in the competition in regards to allowing opposition inside 50’s to be converted into goals while the Bulldogs, their most immediate foe, has a 35% loss rate in one on one defensive contests, the league’s second worst figure. 

Before you know it, Tex might be at the very top of the goal-kicking charts. 

RELATED: The Changing Face of the AFL Forward

Aaron Naughton $10-$12

We quite liked Naughton in the pre-season, and when his price was a little more lofty than what it currently is. With that said, we still think there’s decent value at around the $10-$12 mark. 

While the Doggie’s start to the season has been a bit wobbly, Naughton has remained the club’s absolute go-to option up forward, already slotting 13 goals while his 24 total scoring shots is the 3rd best mark in the league. As we cautioned against in the pre-season, Naughton’s accuracy remains a massive concern and could well be the difference between you cashing this bet, or punching a wall. 

Regardless, Naughton’s ridiculously talented midfield provides the young star with plenty of opportunities. The Dogs are top 5 in the AFL for total disposals and inside 50s, while they also rank 5th for play on % which is indicative of how aggressive they are with their ball movement. This style of play has already resulted in Naughton ranking top 10 for total marks inside 50 in the AFL while leading the Dogs for total marks on the lead. 

If you’re still weighing up a Naughton wager do keep in mind that he could be about to explode. The Dogs’ next six games are all scheduled against teams not currently occupying a top-8 spot which should provide him with the perfect opportunity to surge towards the top of the leaderboard. 

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Lorenzo Edward

Lorenzo writes for Stats Insider. He lives on the NSW South Coast.
@LorenzoEdward39

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