Bullish about Brodie: Can a ruckman win the 2019 Brownlow Medal?

They can’t kick, handball, bounce or kick (included twice for obvious reasons) and we all love to laugh at them when they attempt such fundamental footballing skills.

But, despite this (relative) lack of basic hand-eye coordination, obvious umpire bias against, and nearly three decades of empirical data, many people are STILL asking the question - can a ruckman actually win the 2019 Brownlow Medal?

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Back to the Future

To get a sense of just how high the tide of history is that we’re attempting to swim against here, we must go back to 1992 when the last ‘recognised’ ruckman to win the Brownlow, Scott Wynd, was dominating for a team called Footscray.

It was a glorious time; petrol was 65c a litre, a schooner cost about $1.80 and big Wyndy was rocking out at the Brownlow afterparty to a song by a little-known grunge band from Seattle about teenagers and their unwavering spirit. At least, I think that's what it was about...

Petrol and beer prices may have risen faster than the Demons' 2019 expectations, but recent history would indicate that the chances of a ruckman winning the Brownlow in 2019 remain as unlikely as they were in the days of Nirvana.

Or do they?

Stats Insider says:

Before I go sullying this article with my own filthy, uneducated opinions, let’s have a quick, unbiased look at what the Stats Insider Brownlow Model is saying about Brodie Grundy’s season and his 2019 Brownlow chances.

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider Brownlow Model, Grundy comes out with an average of 20.1 votes per simulation, equating to a 4.4% chance to win, behind the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Nat Fyfe, Marcus Bontempelli, and Lachie Neale - incredibly, all midfielders.

Whichever way you dress it up, 4.4% to win the Brownlow Medal is not particularly attractive as a betting prospect, but the good news for us punters, is we don’t need all 10,000 simulations to fall our way for Grundy to win – we need just one!

READ: 2019 Brownlow Medal Value & Best Bets

The Case for Brodie Grundy

Max Gawn was nothing short of amazing last season (2018). He was voted #1 in the Coaches Association Awards and #3 in the Players Association Awards. He averaged just shy of 16 disposals per game, was awarded 20 Brownlow Medal votes, and almost - almost - singlehandedly dragged the Demons to an AFL Grand Final berth.

His 20 Brownlow votes saw him finish equal 4th, eight votes behind runaway winner, Tom Mitchell, four behind Steele Sidebottom and just one vote behind teammate, Angus Brayshaw.

READ: 2019 Brownlow Predictions - A Unique Approach

Some may read this and think that if Gawn’s 2018 season couldn’t even crack the top 3 on Brownlow night, then Grundy is seriously pushing uphill in 2019.

I respectfully disagree. 

In fact, I see what Gawn did last season as a reason to be even more bullish about Brodie;

• A handful of Gawn’s 2018 votes were 'stolen' by Brayshaw (3rd in Brownlow on 21 votes) who had a legitimately exceptional season. Had Brayshaw been a little less impressive, Gawn would have finished at least second, comfortably;
• Grundy had 17 votes last season in a year where his teammate Sidebottom polled 24. Not only has Grundy had a better year in 2019, but his teammates have slid back (no Magpies midfielder has had a Brayshaw or Sidebottom season in 2019);
• There have been no ‘Tom Mitchell’ seasons this year from a midfielder which means the top 4-5 players in the votes in 2019 will be within a couple of votes, giving Grundy genuine win equity;
• Grundy’s 2018 season catapulted him into the football media spotlight, where he has lived all season. This media chatter must have tangible impact on umpires’ awareness levels in-game, which surely translates to votes:
• New ruck rules (see below)

New Ruck Rules in 2019

The difference in impact between executing a perfect tap to advantage, and literally taking the ball out of the ruck and disposing of it, cannot be understated.

Whether it is a hack kick forward, a perfectly delivered drop punt, sharp hands or a solo goal, the impact on the game (and therefore in the eyes of the umpires) increases dramatically under these new rules, and Grundy has seemingly taken full advantage in 2019.

They are noticeable moments. 

Grundy’s clearance numbers have gone through the roof this season, and whilst his disposals haven’t gone up - as I expected they would (up to 21.2 disposals per game from 20.2 in 2018) - the new ruck rules create noticeable moments from an umpire's point of view.

Moments that matter when it comes time for an umpire to give his or her 3-2-1’s.

They also, simultaneously, deny the prime-moving midfield rovers the chance to take possession and clear the footy.

I would not be underestimating the impact of this rule on the subconsciousness of an umpire, as they go to award their best-on-grounds. It could legitimately result in 3-5 extra votes for Grundy, come the end of the night.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL STATS INSIDER 2019 BROWNLOW MEDAL REPORT

Case Study: GWS v Collingwood, Round 18, 2019

Finally, to highlight what a tricky caper this Brownlow betting thing is, I thought we’d look back at a specific game from the home and away season to try and delve into the psyche of the umpires just a little.

It was a Saturday twilight fixture in Sydney, between the GWS Giants and the Magpies, and if you didn’t see it, don’t worry - you didn’t miss much - the game was over in about five minutes.

The Giants were up by 40 points at quarter-time, with the final margin being a very easy 49pt win to the home side.

It was also, statistically speaking, Brodie Grundy’s best game in 2019.

31 disposals. 

11 clearances. 

9 tackles. 

48 hit outs.

And, a goal. 

A more complete, more dominant game cannot be played by a ruckman, and yet, Grundy could very well fail to poll a single vote.

Jeremy Cameron kicked six goals. Harry Himmelberg kicked four, Toby Greene had plenty of footy and kicked two for himself, while Tim Taranto had 32 touches, six clearances and laid 14 tackles.

For the Magpies, Adam Treloar (34) and Taylor Adams (32) were both prolific in terms of finding the football, while Adams also equalled Grundy’s game-high 11 clearances.

So who do the umpires give their votes too?

We know who had the ‘best game' statistically, but how much does the need to be on the winning team get baked into umpires decisions? 

How much does early impact matter in a game like this one, where it was over before the first break?

Will the umpires have been taking notice of the big ruckman in the middle keeping his side from being flogged by 100+, or were they all jumping aboard the 3-2-1 Giants train before half time?

"Whoopty doo, what does it all mean Basil?"

It is moments and games like the one above, that will ultimately decide who wins the 2019 Brownlow Medal, and it could be that specific game which determines whether it’s big Brodie Grundy who takes Charlie home in 2019.

If you’re looking for a definitive answer, I’m afraid you’ve come to the wrong place because having a flutter on the Brownlow Medal makes betting on the Melbourne Cup look easy.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL STATS INSIDER 2019 BROWNLOW MEDAL REPORT

The data is saying loudly and clearly that it is possible, but simply unlikely Grundy will win, but if you dig a little deeper, and lean (hard!) on the few intangibles that (could) help Grundy’s cause in 2019, there seems a decent pathway for him to emerge victorious, and I think, with the aid of a few pre-Brownlow beverages, my head and heart will conspire to take me tumbling down that path for better or worse.

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