Should Carlton Be Concerned? The Blues' 2022 Outlook

After 13 rounds of the 2022 AFL season, the Blues are sitting a game clear inside the top four with a record of 9-3, yet things may not be as they seem.

Perspective will shape opinions – either the Blues should be commended for the ability to continue getting over the line even when not playing their best footy, or they’re riding a lucky wave and praying on the opposition’s inaccuracy to look good.

Fresh off a victory against the disappointing Bombers, it wasn’t a celebratory mood to commemorate the latest four points added to the tally.

A second quarter that created separation between the two teams should’ve marked an opportunity for a good team to punish a bad team. Instead, the Blues and Bombers played out a goalless last quarter that was reminiscent of a nil-all draw on a cold, wet night in Stoke.

Unfortunately for the Blues, tapering off within games seems to be a recurring theme for the club.

Carlton's second-half woes

When the Blues came from 15 points down at three-quarter time against the Tigers in Round 1 to win by 25 points, excitement was tangible.

Not only did Carlton seem like a strong team in the contest that could move the ball around quickly, but they seemed fitter than ever before and punishing offensively. The ability to run out games better than other teams has been the recipe for success in recent seasons and it looked like the Blues were going to be leaders in the field.

In the 11 games since Round 1, the Blues have won just four second halves. Three of those were dominant performances to close out games, but they were against North Melbourne, Adelaide and GWS, three decidedly poor teams in 2022.

Even poorer, the Blues have only had more scoring shots than the opposition in second halves three times since the first round, when hope felt real.

Against the Bombers, it was a two-point second-half victory, but with Essendon kicking 2.8, the game ought to have been tighter than it was.

Carlton has had spurts of brilliance to open up margins against teams in the first half of games that has clearly caught universal attention, but the inability to maintain large margins has been alarming, and resulted in a percentage that cannot compete with the best teams in the league – it’s the ninth-best percentage in the AFL.

In the seven second halves lost in 2022, the average margin is 23.71 points, including games against Hawthorn, Collingwood and Port Adelaide. It’s a cause for concern.

Stats Insider's 2022 Carlton Predictions

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Statistical dominance can be misleading

Carlton has certainly been one of the most number-heavy teams in the AFL this season.

The Blues average 50.4 more disposals than their opponents (1st), five more clearances per game (2nd), 1.6 less turnovers (5th), and continuously rank solidly for inside 50 differential (6th) and tackles (5th).

Carlton's extremely uncontested game also has them ranked 4th for disposal efficiency (75.4%), and having Adam Saad at their disposal means that they tend to gain meterage more by running.

Sure, combining these impressive numbers with the 75% win ratio indicates that it’s there may be a correlation between the two at the moment, but the Blues aren’t actually punishing teams by creating significant differentials.

Carlton ranks 6th for points scored per game and 8th for points conceded on average, remarkably middling for a team aspiring to have a double chance come September.

Individually, there’s no doubt that this style of play has benefitted the outlooks of personnel at Carlton.

Sam Walsh (32 disposals per game), George Hewett (30.1), Sam Docherty (28.5) and Patrick Cripps (27.6) are among the AFL’s leading ball-winners for their positions. Docherty (7 marks per game), Nic Newman (6.42) and Jacob Weitering (6.36) too are beneficiaries of the fact the Blues tend to chip the ball around in defence.

Perhaps the best trait that the Blues have is offensive pressure, ranking second in the league for tackles inside 50. Matt Owies is the league leader, averaging 2.08 per game, while Corey Durdin, Jack Martinand Jesse Motlop average at least tackle one tackle inside 50 per game. Charlie Curnow (0.92), Jack Silvagni (0.82) and Harry McKay (0.78) are among the league’s best inside 50 for key position sized players.

Yet the Blues’ second-half drop-offs are having an impact on the ability to apply the same amount of pressure from start to finish. Opposition teams are transitioning the ball easier as the game goes on and Carlton is suffering as a result.

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Jacob Weitering’s absence

It seems strange that so many have Weitering in their mid-year All Australian teams. The 24-year-old is having a poor season by his own standards, losing 30.3% of one-on-one contests and has been well down in his intercepting game, a previous strength of his.

Yet, Weitering's overall standing amongst the competition’s very best key defenders is unchanged and his importance to this Carlton team, even in a down season, is extreme.

The split of individual contests defended per game is pretty even among Carlton’s main lockdown defenders, but Weitering has taken ownership of the role on the opposition’s most dangerous player.

This accounts for the turnaround in his numbers, as he had previously been looked after thanks to Liam Jones’ amazing defensive exploits.

Under new coach Michael Voss, the Blues have made the appropriate change to the defensive structure, adopting a much better zonal approach with lots of help defence, but the best players in the AFL still need to be marked. Without Weitering, Lewis Young needs to shift across against stronger-bodied players, while undersized and poor one-on-one options Lachie Plowman and the now-injured Caleb Marchbank, have had to be used above their usual punching weight.

The mid-season drafting and expected debut of Sam Durdin offers some hope as a bigger body who has been impressive in the SANFL, although they’d be hoping there’s been greater development in contested situations than had been shown at North Melbourne. 

With the second-half drop-offs and the fact the Blues are a little more exposed defensively without their star, slight red flags are emerging.

Carlton’s next 5 games are against Richmond, Fremantle, St Kilda, West Coast and Geelong, all of which will likely be without Weitering.

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There simply has to be a post-bye boost in the fitness base and mental application in the second half of games, otherwise the Blues could be facing a slippery slope with a disappointing percentage.

Running out games is as important as ever in the modern game and coming up against some of the league’s best, we’re about to learn a lot about the Carlton Football Club.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)