Did The Sydney Swans Botch Their Renovation?

For the longest time the Sydney Swans were one of the league’s most dependable, recession proof stocks.

Between 1996 and 2018, they missed the Finals on just three occasions, qualified for half a dozen Grand Finals and won two premierships. 

From Rodney Eade to Paul Roos to John Longmire, the Swans established an identity and body of work that was the envy of the league, with their infamous ‘bloods’ culture underpinning so much of their success.

While club monikers and slogans are often stomach turning, what the Swans stood for was real. 

While perennially graced by superstars and Hall of Famers such as Tony Lockett, Adam Goodes and Lance Franklin, a blue collar ethos was always at their heart, with the individual brilliance of their stars continually complimented by a pronounced bedrock of blood and bones.

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Unfortunately that ever dependable Swans stock has plummeted, with our futures model giving Sydney just a 1.7% chance of winning the 2020 premiership along with just a 33.2% chance of making the Finals.

After decades of success, the Swans are now in the same queue as so many of the league's also-rans, anxiously waiting to get a move on and with no clear path in sight.

What’s most incredible is that we are just three seasons removed from the Swans winning the 2016 Minor Premiership and starting the Grand Final against the Western Bulldogs as favourites.

In many respects, this was the Swans at the very peak of their powers.

It was only their third post-war Minor Premiership while their league best 151.1% was the best club return in 100 years. Luke Parker and Daniel Hannebery both finished top-five in the Brownlow, Franklin kicked 81 goals and the Swans had a league-best five All-Australians. 

The reality however is that 2016 now seems like an eternity ago. 

From that Grand Final team, just nine players remain on Sydney’s list while mega-star Lance Franklin is injured, and at 33 years of age, likely past his scintillating best.

For a club in perennial contention, with a list full of stars and augmented by well credentialed, experienced veterans, the Swans instead enter season 2020 as the league’s third youngest team and one ranked just 15th for overall experience. 

Not only have the Swans fortunes changed rapidly, but the demographics of their list have completely transformed.

Which might also be where Sydney’s biggest problem lies.

In a city completely obsessed with real estate, did the Swans get their renovation horribly wrong?

Did a proud club, and one renowned for its list construction, take one false step too many?

When we think of talented Swan’s youth the mind gravitates to the likes of the preciously gifted Isaac Heeney along with Callum Mills who was recently rewarded with State of Origin selection.

However apart from Heeney and Mills, do Sydney boast any other established, youthful brilliance that jumps off the page? 

Lewis Melican and Aliir Aliir look dependable down back while Nick Blakey looks very promising. Jordan Dawson had a break out year of sorts in 2019 and placed top ten in the best and fairest.

Apart from that, Sydney’s youth stocks aren’t exactly bursting at the seams, with just eight Rising Star nominations over the last five seasons. That’s not great.

And so if we appreciate that Sydney’s youth isn’t exactly going to drive them, what will the Swan’s point of difference be this season? What's going to separate them from the rest, and fuel a potential return to the Finals?

Remember that 'Blood culture'? That unwavering commitment to the ball and their teammates?

Well, last season the Swan’s had the league’s very worst contested possession differential, while only Hawthorn fared worse from a clearance differential point of view. 

They generated just 47.7 inside 50’s per game which was a mark only the Gold Coast Suns perfumed worse in.

These pronounced dip in numbers culminated in an 8-win season along with an anything but inspiring Dane Rampe-George Hewitt Best and Fairest quinella.

The lack of excitement was parlayed into perhaps the league's most concerning pre-season with Sydney losing both their trial games, departing with a league-worst 50.1%, not at all helped by a 94-point belting by the Giants, whose list and general state of being couldn’t be in sharper contrast to their cross-town rivals.

RELATED: Can GWS Recover From Their Giant Grand Final Nightmare?

While things haven’t gone swimmingly for the Swans recently, and while this recent renovation won't receive an imminent visit from 'Grand Designs', they are trying to do something a little different- particularly up forward.

When Franklin does come back he’ll have an army of small forwards at his feet led by Tom Papley, who’s emerged as one of the league's most accomplished goal sneaks, along with new recruits Lewis Taylor and Sam Gray who at their best can offer the Swans a unique combination of blistering speed and football smarts.

If Nick Blakey can continue to improve, if Sam Reid can stay healthy, and if their mosquito fleet can spring to life, then perhaps the Swans have reason for hope after all.

ALSO READ: AFL 2020: 18 Clubs, 18 Reasons for Optimism

So much, however, will depend upon the functionality and production of that forward line.

If it can hold its own and pose a genuine threat, then the likes of Heeney won’t need to be deployed forward, which would in turn weaken a midfield that needs all the class it can get its hands on.

There's no denying this Swans rebuild has been odd, and as of yet, not overly convincing. 

While it's a club that has lost its tenacious edge, and one not bursting with a plethora of young talent, the club has proved itself master builders previously. 

2020 presents as a perfect opportunity for the beleaguered Swans to show the football world the progress of their renovation, even if anything but conventional.

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