Footy Forensics: Eagles v Saints
Last updated: Jun 2, 2018, 2:17AM | Published: Jun 1, 2018, 3:43AM
There are mismatches and then there are games like this where short of a tropical cyclone or a major miracle St Kilda will be on the end of a 100+ point drubbing at the hands of an Eagles side at the peak of their powers.
The Stats Insider model agrees, predicting a dominant 53pt victory to the home side 114-61.
Personally, I think it will be much bigger than that.
St Kilda have lost Jake Carlisle to suspension and are already without Nathan Brown which leaves them without any recognised or experience key defenders in a game where they face the best key forward combo in the competition.
As if that didn't already spell bloodbath, Nic Naitanui will be putting it on a platter to his midfield, of which Luke Shuey has been added.
Finally, we turn to the St Kilda forward line or complete lack thereof. West Coast defenders will have a field day picking off possession chains across half back.
In such a one-sided game there is obviously no value to be found in the H2H market. St Kilda just can't win this game and the Eagles at $1.04 is don't even bother territory particularly when there is so much value about at the Line.
52.5pts. That's just over two goals a quarter. It's a big Line in the context of Lines this season but it is nowhere near where it should be. West Coast will eat this up before halftime.
Bet of the round for mine is the Eagles to cover the spread at home against a Saints side who has no key forwards nor key defence.
I expect West Coast to kick 20 goals here so the Overs does appeal, but the Saints are the variable. The Eagles could very well shut them out completely and keep them to sub 40pts. It is that one-sided of a game in my mind.
Aligning with SI totally here. Eagles to cover the spread is the bet of the game though. Kennedy will kick a massive bag here.
West Coast by 80+.
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