Footy Forensics: Giants v Hawks

Despite losing their best forward the Giants are still favourites to beat the Hawks who, if we forgive their last game (and we should), look incredible value at the H2H and Line markets tonight. 

The loss of Jeremy Cameron cannot be underestimated here for punters keen on the Giants. Without Cameron and still with no Toby Greene, the Giants lose the ability to move the footy with speed into the forward fifty as well as impact the scoreboard heavily. 

Yes Patton is still there but GWS are now fairly predictable going inside forward 50 which makes it very easy for the likes of Sicily, Gunston and Stratton to intercept and rebound. 

The Giants may be favourites with the bookies but Stats Insider says the Hawks are in this up to their eyeballs. I concur. 

I don't love the loss of Burgoyne but Ceglar coming in for Hawthorn does stretch that GWS defence. His inclusion also means Gunston will play across half-back where he is incredibly damaging. 

Fine and sunny in Sydney's west this evening. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, GWS are winning 53% of games which makes the Hawks by far the best value play at $2.30 in the H2H market. 

Hawthorn were sloppy in Tassie against a determined Suns side. Through a lack of pressure the Suns often make teams go away from their structures and waste the footy, it happens quite a lot actually. I'm expecting a really crisp, four-quarter response from Hawthorn.

GWS just don't have the forward line to kick a winning score here. Hawks solid value in this market, one of the H2H plays of the round. 

This is where the Hawks look even better, being gifted a +8.5pt start at the Line. Stats Insider has identified the Hawks winning 59% of games with this start which makes this a 'Star Bet' from SI. 

Small edge in the Unders which is I think the way it will go but relative to the above markets the Totals offer scant value to punters in this one. 

As you can see above, Stats Insider likes the value about the Hawks tonight and I agree wholeheartedly. Hawthorn always responds after a poor game and let's not forget what they did to Adelaide two weeks ago in that second half. 

GWS had to knock Harris Andrews out to beat the Lions last week (and even then only just got the win). 

Form, value SI model all saying Hawks to hold the line is the play. 

Hawthorn by 8. 

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