Inside the Lions 2019 Turnaround

Like any great piece of art, the Stats Insider Sackometer can be interpreted in a number of ways.

Most gravitate towards the most vulnerable areas of the 'Sacko' and to where the more juicy storylines might be lurking. That’s where Brendan Bolton and Brad Scott spent most of the first half of the season, and who were at the foot of the table when, ultimately, both were removed from their posts.

Yet, there exists equally compelling narratives at the top of the Sackometer, painting insights just as valuable.

Which brings us to Chris Fagan and what his Brisbane Lions have achieved so far in 2019.

Brisbane sits third on the ladder through 16 rounds, with just a few points of percentage separating them and Collingwood for an opening week home final, and the equally valuable second chance.

Their 2019 turnaround has made for one of the most dramatic stories of 2019 to the point that one of this decade’s perennial bottom-feeders is now a legitimate premiership threat, with our Futures model granting them an 18.5% chance of premiership glory in 2019 - second favourite, and a number bettered only by Geelong’s 22.8%.

So how have the Lions turned their fortunes around to the point they’re now considered a legitimate premiership chance when just two and half years ago they finished dead last on the ladder?

First and foremost, it is crucial to understand that the Lions success in 2019 isn’t a product of beating up upon the league’s most vulnerable in order to pad their record.

In fact, the Lions have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to mix it with the game’s very best, making their intentions clear from the outset when they hosted the reigning premier West Coast Eagles in round one, blowing the gates off the champions with a 44-point thumping.

Impressive wins over the Giants and Port Adelaide in the last fortnight have resulted in the Lions being one of just four teams (along with Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast) who hold positive records against other teams with a 50% win rate - or better - on the season.

The Lions are thriving off the back of a game plan which preaches long, direct football, safe in the thought that their excellent brigade of small forwards will work tenaciously to keep the ball locked inside 50 once there.

Brisbane leads the league for tackles inside 50, averaging 13.8 per game with four players (Dayne Zorko, Allen Christensen, Jarryd Lyons and Charlie Cameron) all positioned in the AFL's top 40 for this metric.

Brisbane’s frenetic, no-nonsense approach is resulting in them having an impact on the scoreboard. The Lions are generating a scoring shot for every 13.84 disposals which is quite easily the most efficient mark in the league.

Outside of the statistical gains under Fagan, credit at Brisbane must also go to the list management team who have hit nothing but home runs from a draft and trading perspective over the last few years.

Since Chris Fagan and General Manager David Noble arrived in 2016, in addition to List Manager Dom Ambrogio’s continual excellent work, the Lions have been able to turbocharge their squad and extinguish the homesick factor which coincided with Brisbane’s barren run.

Their first three picks in the 2016 AFL Draft - Hugh McCluggage at three, Jarrod Berry at 17 and Alex Witherden at 23 - have proven inspired selections, while also showing significant improvement and adding so much to their game each season.

2017's number one overall selection Cam Rayner has continued to flash star potential, while their second pick that year, Zak Bailey (number 15 overall), is beginning to solidify his place in the team.

Outside of their draft mastery, the Lions have also been superb at the trade table.

Charlie Cameron has proven a phenomenal acquisition, as too, have Lincoln McCarthy and Jarrod Lyons. All three have become indispensable members of the Lions charge up the ladder, as well as bringing vastly different skill sets to the team.

Even Luke Hodge - who many thought surely couldn’t squeeze any more out of his 300+ game body - has played in 33 of a possible 36 games since arriving at the Gabba, while operating at a career-high 84.3% disposal efficiency rate.

Though of course any mention of Brisbane's list management strategy simply can’t take place without noting Lachie Neale.

Neale has achieved AFL ‘superstar’ status in recent years without the household-name recognition which often comes with it.

The former Docker is a perennial 30+ possession winner who is ranked fifth in the AFL Player Ratings while is now considered the second favourite to claim the 2019 Brownlow Medal.

The Lions gave up a couple of first-round picks to secure the two-time Fremantle Best and Fairest winner, and their investment has already paid off handsomely.

Neale's consistency and work rate, particularly at the coalface - where he leads the competition in clearances - sets up so much of what Brisbane like to do on the outside, and a strong reason why Brisbane's +155 metres gained differential is the third-best mark in the league. 

There is, of course, no single factor to explain how the Lions have burst past all expectations to find themselves third on the ladder right now, though their success should work as a template for so many of the league's battling clubs. 

Brisbane have illustrated that above-average drafting and trading can make for a fast track to contention, particularly when done in concert with exemplary coaching.

It won't all be smooth sailing for the Lions from here with Brisbane's run home still containing a couple of roadblocks in their quest to secure a home final.

They’ve yet to play the league’s tearaway leader in Geelong, while their home and away season will conclude with an always tough assignment against the Tigers at the MCG - a venue the Lions have won just twice at in their last 19 visits.

For now, though, these Lions can bask in the reality that their season has made for the most inspiring story of 2019.

Just think: this is a team who went into the season where a Finals berth would have been considered a brilliant achievement but where anything less than a Preliminary Final appearance would now seem like a profound disappointment.

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