Is it too little, too late for the Bulldog's AFL Finals charge?

Watching the Western Bulldogs in 2019 has been akin to seeing a dear friend struggle through writer’s block.

Their desire, intent and that dirty word ‘talent’ have been evident all season, yet when it’s come time to actually produce something tangible, the Bulldogs have struggled to get their story out.

Fortunately, however, winter has been kind to the Dogs, with their creative juices now flowing freely.

The big question is whether it’s all a matter of too little, too late?

When the Bulldogs lost at home in round three to the lowly Gold Coast Suns, despite a +18 inside 50 differential, the warning signs were there that there was something amiss with the creative process.

When they fell a couple of weeks later to the win-less Blues, after once again winning the inside 50 count, the warning signs had turned into a full-scale alarm at the Whitten Oval.

At the conclusion of round six, the Bulldogs sat 14^th on the ladder with just two wins, while having played one of the competition’s most gentle fixtures.

Instead of building upon their 2016 fairytale masterpiece, the Dogs were now staring down the barrel of missing the AFL Finals for a third straight season.

Yet with two games to play, the Western Bulldogs now find themselves back in the thick of September calculations, sitting just percentage outside of the top eight, and back to a 39% chance of participating in September according to the Stats Insider AFL Futures model.

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This weekend’s 104-point pulverisation of a hapless Essendon football club worked to crystallise all of the Bulldogs improvement over the last couple of months, with the goals (and wins) now flowing off the back of their midfield industry.

All season, the Dogs midfield has held its own, led by Brownlow Medal hopeful Marcus Bontempelli, while Jack Macrae has averaged a career high 33 disposals per game. The Bulldogs have also been aided by Josh Dunkley’s breakout season, which has seen the 22-year old average 34 touches per game over the last ten matches, while leading the club for tackles, averaging six per match. 

The club is second in the league for disposal differential at +35.2 per game, while their +6.2 inside 50 differential is a number bettered only by Port Adelaide and Richmond.

The Bulldogs are third in the league for clearances, while the perception that the team is one-paced and one-dimensional is countered by the fact that only Collingwood has generated more uncontested possession this season, while the club’s 74.3% disposal efficiency rate leads the league.

Hidden beneath an underwhelming win-loss record in 2019 has been a rather decent team which is only beginning to reveal itself now.

The reality is the Bulldogs issues in 2019 have pertained to a terrible conversion once inside 50, coupled with some of the league’s most deplorable numbers from a shot accuracy perspective.

Stats Insider’s own in house shot-charting tool paints a pitiful picture where the Dogs are concerned, with the boys from the West ranked near the bottom for conversion off both set shots and in general play, while their accuracy from within 24 metres has also been among the league's poorest.

Yet, in recent months the Bulldogs have made some tweaks to their attack which has played a significant role in their turnaround.

From a personnel perspective, the Bulldogs forward line has benefited greatly from the reincorporation of Patrick Lipinski and Bailey Dale into the squad. The two offer something that Bulldogs have struggled with all season, particularly in the realm of pace and flair.

By having both in the line up, the Dogs’ tall forwards in Josh Schache and Aaron Naughton have had much more space to operate in, while finding themselves in more one-on-one situations, with opposition defenders now occupied on multiple fronts.

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Over the last four matches the Bulldogs have averaged 105 points per game, which is well up on their 84.7 season average.

But, despite all of the Bulldogs' recent gains, and, having dragged themselves to the brink of AFL Finals, they are running out of time.

While percentage is the only thing keeping them out of the eight at the moment, their last two games are both against teams above them on the ladder beginning with this weekend's visit to the GWS Giants, followed by their final round, Ballarat showdown against the 8th placed incumbent Adelaide Crows.

While both games are very winnable, the Bulldogs must surely regret their 2019 form against so many of the league’s minnows which has seen them routinely drop games to the likes of the Suns and Carlton, as well as to North Melbourne and St Kilda in the days following coaching changes.

The bulldogs have lost no less than five matches to bottom seven clubs this season, which is a record - should they once again miss out on AFL Finals - they will surely stew over all summer.

It’s taken a while, but the Bulldogs have finally found their creative spark and been able to re-imagine a different destiny for themselves.

The only issue is whether their reawakening has arrived just a little too late.

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