Latest: AFL Data Model Lists Geelong as 2022 Premiership Favourite

After Melbourne had topped Stats Insider's AFL premiership probabilities since the beginning of 2022, Geelong is now our flag favourite.

What seemed inevitable quickly became reality when the Cats defeated the formerly infallible Demons in Round 17, moving them into premiership favouritism.

The 2022 season has seen the most deliberate structuring of a Geelong team to have a lasting impact throughout the whole year than any season in recent memory, with the club’s offensive ball movement finally catching up to its typically strong defensive unit.

Averaging the second-most points per game while conceding the third-fewest, Geelong now sit atop the AFL ladder with six rounds left of the home-and-away season.

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Stats Insider's 2022 Geelong Predictions

Stats Insider's AFL Data Analyst Greg Butyn said of the change: "Geelong's soft-ish run home means they are the most likely team to receive two home finals this September. 

"With third and fourth place looking likely to be two of Sydney, Fremantle and Brisbane, an interstate team travelling to the MCG in week one of the finals helps Geelong's premiership chances greatly."

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Geelong's Win Over Melbourne

Geelong's Round 17 win against Melbourne finished as a 28-point margin but the game played closer to an eight-goal differential as the Cats met every challenge thrown at them by the reigning premiers.

Earlier in the season, the only slight hitch in the Demons’ style of play seemed to be defending quick ball movement – the Bulldogs kicked 8 goals in 20 minutes against them in Round 1, then the Gold Coast took Melbourne to its limit in Round 2.

Most recently, teams like Collingwood, Fremantle and Sydney have been successful when taking the game on, while struggling when slowing the play down.

Chris Scott turned his team’s game around to break down the Demons convincingly. Geelong has moved the ball relatively quickly this season, averaging 6.46 disposals per inside 50 with a kick-to-handball ratio of 1.4:1, but against the Demons, these numbers shifted to 5.76 disposals per inside 50, with a ratio of 1.79:1.

Without Tom Stewart, the Cats predictably relied on Jack Henry to be an aerial threat and Zach Guthrie tried to play a more defensive role, but it was the work of the wingmen into defence that really had an impact.

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Mitch Duncan, Isaac Smith, Max Holmes and Zach Tuohy all featured heavily in the defensive half to kick-start the quick transitional ball movement. Duncan had 32 disposals and kicked two goals, Holmes had six intercepts by outworking some of the hardest working players in the league.

Melbourne ranks just ninth for clearances and seventh for clearance differentials in 2022, but the impact Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Christian Petracca have out of the middle is enormous. While the latter kicked a couple of goals directly out of centre clearances, it was the work of Geelong in the clinches to prevent direct, attacking ball movement that had the big impact.

Tom Atkins’ emergence continued, finishing with 21 disposals, nine clearances and nine tackles. Since moving to the midfield, Atkins has become one of the league’s leading tacklers and crucially, has eased the burden on Joel Selwood, the returning Patrick Dangerfield and even the demand for Cam Guthrie to be the main extractor.

The Cats were able to restrict the preciseness of Melbourne’s kicks inside 50, completely nullifying their forwards, while in their own attacking play, posted a strong score with only a goal each from Tom Hawkins and Tyson Stengle, while Jeremy Cameron went goalless.

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Geelong: The Form AFL Team

Last week's victory against Melbourne makes it seven wins in a row for the Cats, largely flying under the radar until the big win over Melbourne.

At 5-4 after Round 9, the Cats were getting by with a couple of disappointing losses, but higher scoring overall.

Geelong's loss against St Kilda in Round 9 felt like a lost opportunity, a game the Cats really should’ve won and in hindsight, was the point in the season that they chose to bring together the two different styles of play into one, becoming a contender in the process.

Again, they’ve won seven games in a row. During that time, they’re averaging 95.29 points and have conceded 59.43 points a game. Games against West Coast and Richmond ran too close for comfort, but the Cats backed their processes and looked more comfortable than their opponents for large portions of those games.

Still, despite beating Brisbane, losses to Sydney and Fremantle lingered. It was very much external-facing pressure, but they still needed to take a big scalp.

Geelong is ranked first for inside 50s, a dominant first for marks inside 50, and are committing the fewest turnovers of any team. They are also conceding the fewest inside 50s by far and the fewest contested marks, all factors that would indicate a win over Melbourne was likely, but getting that victory was important for public perception.

MORE: Carlton vs Geelong Round 18 AFL Predictions

Can Geelong Win the 2022 AFL Premiership?

Again, all it has taken is one result for opinion to catch up to the numbers and the reality of what we’re seeing.

The Cats have been playing like a flag contender for the entire season and are finally being treated with the respect they have earned by playing the most solid footy with the highest floor in the league.

Adding Atkins to the midfield mix and having a plethora of wingmen occupying space in the defensive half means that when opposition teams look up, there are plenty of Geelong jumpers in front of them.

Geelong's pressure on the defensive side of the centre circle has been elite and when clean centre breaks haven’t been had by an opposing team, their offensive options are limited and often restricted to high balls inside 50, or breaking down outside the arc.

Being able to win so handily against the Demons without much scoreboard impact from their three main goal-scorers for 2022 is perhaps the single biggest boost to any angle you want to analyse Geelong from.

Unpredictability has been a trait that has brought such success to premiership teams in the modern era and the space created by Cameron coming so high up the ground to get the ball, as well as Stengle often finding himself on a high flank, means the direct ball movement will find different players with less defensive attention on them.

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Geelong’s final six games are against Carlton, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Gold Coast and West Coast. 

The next fortnight in particular will provide another offensive challenge, against two teams with good depth in mid-sized defenders. There are opportunities for Cameron and Hawkins to kick bags, but maintaining the unpredictability of role players hitting the scoreboard will be just as important to the team.

The Cats are justifiably seen as the team with the best chance of winning the flag with just six weeks left in the regular season, but it will be up to them to overcome the issues they’ve had in September for nigh-on a decade.

Playing this style of footy is sustainable and built for finals, but Chris Scott won’t have played all his cards just yet.

It’s time we enjoyed and appreciated this team that has been so relevant for so long and has been rejuvenated along the way with each season.

Geelong is the premiership favourite for season 2022 and looks set to have a lasting impact on the year.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)