How the Saints Are Covering Jack Steele's Injury

Covering the absence of one of the AFL's best players is difficult, but St Kilda have set themselves up well to do so.

Jack Steele is far from a one-dimensional midfielder. Arguably the best inside player in the league, it's the Saints skipper's work rate and ability to get to as many contests as possible, and his defensive application that separates him from even the "very good" tier.

In 2021, the 26-year-old averaged 29.1 disposals, 8.4 tackles, 6.3 clearances and 4.7 marks per game. He kicked 13 goals, contributed to 5.9 score involvements per game and rated elite for his pressure in attack, polling 26 Brownlow votes in an impressive year.

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Despite this, St Kilda remained mediocre across the board. They were 12th for clearances, 7th for tackles and 11th in disposals. Their contested possession rate was average and in every statistical differential, the Saints broke even at best.

But now, with our AFL futures model ranking the Saints as the fourth best chance to win the flag, and their 2022 AFL premiership odds with TAB sitting at $18, things are clearly on the up at St Kilda. 

How the Saints Have Improved in 2022

So how in 2022, do the Saints sit 7-3 after 10 rounds and fifth on the ladder after two strong victories – against Geelong and Adelaide – through big midfield efforts without their captain?

Clearly, the Saints have taken huge strides forward as a team and it has largely been based around shared responsibilities through the centre.

Throughout the season, the emphasis on having Steele be the dominant player at every stoppage has disappeared and has made the team far better, while leaving them more ably equipped to handle the absence of their skipper.

On face value, the movement hasn't been big in the aforementioned statistics – the Saints are 12th for clearances and 9th for tackles, while they're up to 5th in disposals.

The differentials though, they tell a different story.

The Saints have gone from 12th to 5th in clearance differentials, 10th to 6th for disposals and 9th to 4th in contested possessions. By spreading the load across a variety of players, the Saints have been able to have a greater influence on contests all over the ground.

While the Saints play against lowly North Melbourne this week, it's still an important game for them to continue to divvy up that load.

Jack Steele's 2022 Stats

Steele himself has seen an increase in his impact in the defensive half. A clear career-high in intercept possessions has coincided with a 15% increase in defensive-half pressure acts.

A contested possession rate of 44.7% is his lowest in three seasons, while his heat map indicates the slight shift in focus.

Of course, the preference would be to have Steele available and ready to throw into the middle. In the win against Adelaide, St Kilda lost stoppage clearances by 11, finishing with eight less than their season average.

While the Crows were wasteful in a winnable contest, it was about meaningful ball movement when it came to crunch time and the Saints increased their handball play in tight to stretch the Crows in their last game.

With Steele, currently ranked 7th in our AFL Player Ratings, expected to be out for 6-8 weeks, opportunities simply open up further for others.

Who Has Stepped up for the Saints in 2022

In terms of genuine impact, it might be a career-best season for Brad Crouch, averaging 28.2 disposals, 6.3 tackles and 5.9 clearances a game.

The 28-year-old's ball use isn't fantastic but his turnovers have remained similar while reaching 2017 numbers in other areas. The improvement on his first season at the Saints has been vital for the team.

The much-maligned Seb Ross has silenced his critics with a truly outstanding first 10 games.

His average of 24.2 disposals is a return to his previous prolific nature, but it's far from the headline number to show his impact.

Ross has been criticised for his ball use and lack of composure throughout his career. This season, his kicking efficiency of 66.4% is rated above average for midfielders across the league and is 3% better than any of his other 10 seasons in the league. 

An average of 4.2 interception possessions is among the very best in the league for his position, while his numbers pushing back into defence are career-highs, a fantastic feat for a veteran with two best-and-fairests.

Zak Jones' return has certainly been handy in recent weeks, with the timing certainly helpful. He is a completely different player to the skipper, but at his best, Jones can be a destructive contested player with breakaway speed as he has shown in bursts early. 

We can expect Jones to get a bit more midfield time as the season progresses, but 23 disposals and 4 clearances against the Crows was a good step in the right direction.

Jack Sinclair has taken his form to another level and is a fringe All-Australian on the half-back flank, but is used on occasion through the midfield when cleanliness and efficient ball use are needed. 

Coach Brett Ratten's willingness to rotate midfielders and use players in spurts is certainly a newer feature in 2022 and has been vital to the Saints overall progression, where Sinclair is the epitome of an x-factor option.

If we consider the fact Steele has taken a slightly less intensive role, then we can see a first-year player such as Marcus Windhager stepping up as an impact option.

Against Adelaide, it was an effective 15 disposals and 3 clearances. His speed and courage at the contest mixes well with Crouch.

However, when truly discussing how St Kilda have transformed their midfield to be able to cover their best player's absence, no player has been as influential as Jade Gresham.

Jade Gresham's 2022 Leap

The 24-year-old is ranked 9th in the league for bounces, 14th for inside 50s and 16th for centre clearances. He's averaging 23.9 disposals, 5.1 inside 50s and 4 clearances, kicking 9.9 with 8 goal assists in 10 matches.

Over the last fortnight where he has had to step up, he has had 57 disposals, 13 clearances, 11 inside 50s and 10 tackles, with 50% of his possessions won in a contested manner.

Gresham has always showed flashes of midfield potential but has had injuries severely impact the trajectory of the early parts of his career, often deployed as a forward when fit as a result.

His emergence as a genuinely good midfielder has softened the blow of losing the club captain and his offensive skill has been a pleasant point of difference to what has been a rather vanilla midfield previously.

That, ultimately, is the biggest step forward for the Saints in 2022 and why they haven’t fallen apart with Steele, as had been previously feared.

There’s depth, coverage and a willingness to rotate skilful players through to change the mix and be unpredictable, a big change from previous seasons.

The Saints have a tough run in the second half of the season and it remains to be seen whether they are up to the challenge as a team, but the midfield group is well equipped to handle themselves without their best player.

No longer do fans need to fear that without Steele, the Saints would be uncompetitive and that can only be a positive going forward.