One of the dirtiest words within the sports analytical community is ‘X' factor. 

Mention it among this enlightened group and you're likely to be kicked in the shin. And fair enough too. Theoretically, nothing is an ‘X’ factor. In sports, there really is an answer for everything. Numbers and models don’t lie and when they do; it’s the human’s fault.

Having said all that, pass me the swear jar.

Christian Petracca is an ‘X' factor! 

A walking, talking, footballing, ‘X’ factor.

Going into the season there was nothing wrong with any notion that said the Melbourne Football Club could be really good this season. AFL Premiership good. And, so too could Petracca. If the former number 2 AFL Draft pick could elevate his game to a tier many levels above his current output, the Demons path to those heights would be much smoother.

Instead, they have started the season nil and two, have looked a long way from serious contention, while Petracca’s numbers are already in a career-low zone.

Sure, Petracca’s lofty draft stock ties into how we assess one of footballs highest profiled dog-bite victims. But it’s the form he flashes, in ever so fleeting bursts, which can’t help but make you wonder if these small lightning bolts could become a bonafide thunderstorm, then the Demons' flag chances would be greatly enhanced. 

Melbourne broke out last season. They ended a demoralizing 11-year AFL Finals drought by putting together a season which got better by the week, culminating with a trip - albeit a forgettable one - to the AFL Preliminary Final weekend.

Christian Petracca did not break out last season. He was more or less absent in that Preliminary Final blowout, and while he wasn’t alone on that stage, it’s not as though his overall 2018 AFL Finals series could be classified as anything other than 'in attendance'. 

Which is precisely how his first two rounds could be classified.

At 23 years old, and 65 games into his career, Petracca is averaging under 19 touches and less than one goal per match. He’s never had a 30-possession game. He’s accumulated five career Brownlow Medal votes. Brownlows have been won at 23.

Petracca’s odds are literally 500-1 to take Charlie home in 2019, which is the same price as St Kilda's Tim Membrey.

When one thinks of Christian Petracca, it’s not crazy to have Dangerfield or Martin pop into your mind. Or even Nat Fyfe. Maybe a little bit of Marcus Bontempelli too? 

I really don’t think those names are too far fetched to be linked with him, which is where the Petracca paradox lies.

BROWNLOW VOTES AFTER FIRST 3 FULL AFL SEASONS

Marcus Bontempelli (37)

Nat Fyfe (32)

Dustin Martin (23)

Patrick Dangerfield (9)

Christian Petracca (5)

He’s got that kind of build, that stockiness. The big fend-off. That bounciness, the penetrative kick and is capable of bobbing up for a goal or three out of nowhere. Nothing during those moments would suggest we’re dealing with a footballer with such a hitherto pedestrian career. And if that provides me (as a football fan) with a modicum of frustration, then god knows what it’s doing to hardcore Demon stakeholders.  

Not only does Petracca not do those kind of things frequently enough, but he rarely does them against the best teams, either. Of Petacca’s statistically best 14 games of AFL football, just two have arrived in the same season his opponent made and won an AFL Final. He boasts a career AFL Fantasy average score of 73. So does his teammate, Bayley Fritsch.

When I watch Melbourne play, I see a good, talented collection of footballers that seem to have an emerging, progressive coach steering the ship. I also see a midfield group that is very much alike. Maybe even too alike.

In theory, Christian Petracca could be the perfect compliment, in the same way, for instance, Dustin Martin was in 2017, when he broke out as a true superstar for Richmond, and won himself a Brownlow and a Norm Smith on his way to helping the Tigers claim the flag.

And it’s not necessarily a problem if your midfielders are all cut from the same cloth, after all they get the job done routinely, dwarfing the AFL last season where centre clearances were concerned.

The Demons are crying out for a game breaker!

A conduit between their excellent midfield core and their emerging forwards. A player who when he’s up and dangerous, sends the opposition into complete panic mode.

MELBOURNE's CENTRE CLEARANCE DIFFERENTIAL RANK

2015: 14th

2016: 3rd

2017: 3rd

2018: 1^st

2019: 1^st  (through 2 rounds)

If Petracca is a forward he certainly doesn’t have enough scoring impact. If he’s a midfielder, none of his numbers shine brightly enough in terms of overall production. If he’s a little of both, that’s cool, he’ll have himself a decent - though not great - career.

CHRISTIAN PETRACCA - MELBOURNE' BEST & FAIREST

2016: 12th

2017: 7th

2018: 15th

A key issue with Petracca's game pertains to the actual definition (amongst analysts) classifying who or what he actually is, which is partly why I hitched my ride to the whole ‘X’ factor context. His body shape is quite unique for an AFL footballer, as too, is his actual style of play. I keep coming back to 'bouncy' and 'bulldozing' but I can accept how limiting those terms are.

It wasn’t my intention to pick on Christian Petracca; it’s just that I find him to be such an exotic and unique AFL specimen, especially in the context of this particular Demons team that is crying out for success.

It’s not beyond the realm of imagination to see Petracca developing into an absolute star of the game. Yet, I can also see him in my mind's eye, jogging towards a 200 game, ho-hum AFL career - which in itself would be a proposition readily welcomed by most young men and women the country over - yet for this guy, would seem to be something of a serious waste of talent.

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