We've examined the AFL’s rather pronounced penchant for change, particularly in regards to AFL Finals positioning over the last couple of decades.

What we discovered was that over the last twenty seasons, no less than 55 teams failed to back up their September appearance, at an average of 2.7 clubs per season.

Today our interest shifts to identifying the teams best positioned to fill the void, potentially exchanging their last-September 'observer' role, to that of an active participant.

While, on the surface, examining last season’s bottom ten functions as something of a twisted beauty contest, the reality, however, is that amongst this collection of 2019 afterthoughts, there's at least a couple of clubs actually well placed to play Finals in seven months time.

The much harder part is, of course, identifying just who is ready to make that leap from pretender to contender. Thankfully, we’ve sorted through plenty of data to identify the relevant trends that could help you arrive at a better-informed decision when putting together your 2020 AFL predictions.

ANALYSIS: Predicting The Clubs Most Likely To Fall Out Of AFL Finals In 2020

AFL 2020 PREDICTIONS: Simulating Every Club's AFL Premiership Chances

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AFL LADDER POSITIONING

Let's get the bad news out of the way immediately; If you’re a bottom-four club, your prospects of returning to the Finals within 12 months aren't great.

Over the last 20 seasons, just four of the 55 (7.2%) teams that were marooned in this section of the ladder improved their standing enough to make Finals.

While this likely makes for sombre reading for fans of Sydney, Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast, some comfort can be taken in the fact that two of these four turnarounds have happened in recent seasons, with the Brisbane Lions last season improving from 15th place and just five wins, to within only percentage points of a Minor Premiership in 2019. 

Understandably, the teams knocking loudest on the door - those positioned 9-11 - have had the best chance of breaking through to a finals appearance, with 28 of the 55 (50.9%) upgrading from these positions. For Hawthorn and the two South Australian clubs, this stat might have helped them train that extra bit harder over the summer months. 

PERCENTAGE

If there is a sweet spot - a portal if you prefer - that clubs could make use of to fast-track a September return, it’s having a percentage between 90 and 99 the season prior.

Over the last 20 seasons, 17 of the 55 clubs (30.9%) who made the jump back into the Finals were located in this percentage range. That’s good news for the likes of Sydney, Fremantle and North Melbourne, while the Adelaide Crows' 100.8% isn’t too far off the mark either.

For the Gold Coast Suns and their 18-game losing streak that closed out their 2019 season, some solace can be taken from the fact that making the finals from their lowly position within a twelve-month timeframe is, though bleak, still within the realm of possibility. For starters, the West Coast Eagles in 2002 - Chris Judd’s rookie season - jumped from five wins and a lowly 65.9 percentage, all the way to finals football. 

As recently as 2017, Essendon was able to return to September action the season after their three-win, 60.9 per cent campaign, thanks in large part to having most of their key players return from a 12-months PED ban.

So Gold Coast… we’re saying there’s a chance.  

WIN PROFILES

While ladder positioning and percentage have been helpful, simply looking at a team's win totals from the season prior provides excellent insight for clubs looking to crash the Finals party. 

And it appears as though 9-10 wins is that 'sweet spot' constituting 22 of the 55 (40%) teams that made the leap. Here, four teams qualify from last year's ladder with all of St Kilda, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Adelaide fitting the win-profile of a team perhaps on the verge of returning to September. 

For teams who won six games or less last season (and we're again looking at you Gold Coast and Melbourne), returning to the Finals might be a tall order with just nine of the 55 teams fitting that profile over the last two decades. 

CONCLUSION

If the last twenty years have taught us anything, it's that the composition of the 'Final Eight' will change. The more pressing question is just who will be the recipients of the inevitable spots that will open up in 2020? 

While a crystal ball would be handy, relying on past trends - at least as a guide to the future - will suffice.

READ: Simulating Every Club's AFL Premiership Chances

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