Why the Brisbane Lions Could Be Pretenders in 2022

The Brisbane Lions may not be quite as powerful as they seem in 2022, with a host of stats leaning towards them falling soon.

The post-bye ladder leaders have consolidated their spot as one of the better teams in the AFL after their swift ascension to relevance in 2019, yet have only won a single final from six attempts in that run.

In 2022, the Lions sit with 10 wins and three losses at an average of 102.92 points scored per game – maintaining this scoring pace would have them as the first team to average triple-figures since Melbourne in 2018.

Despite all the signs pointing towards genuine premiership contention, and the club indeed sitting atop the AFL kingdom after Round 14, things are not as they seem at the Lions’ den.

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Attacking Efficiency or Plain Luck?

To average nearly 103 points a game in the AFL is a remarkable achievement in the modern game, but it certainly matches the philosophy of coach Chris Fagan, with the directness in Brisbane’s style of play. They operate with the second highest kick-to-handball ratio in the AFL (1.81:1) and simply look to gain territory and go over the opposition’s defensive scheme – the Suns are way ahead of anyone else in this regard, with the Lions and Tigers owning the second tier all to themselves.

In terms of expected scores though, no one comes close to the Lions, who have scored 130 more points than historical data would indicate is likely according to the Herald Sun, a differential nearly double the next best team.

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It checks out too in terms of accuracy, with the Lions averaging 15.5 goals per game and 10.2 behinds, nearly five percent more accurate than any other team in the league, an absolutely extraordinary statistic. Even as the highest scoring team in 2019 and 2021, the Lions accuracy was 50% and 55.38%, not anywhere near this season’s 60.31%.

Only in Rounds 1 and 13 did they score more behinds than goals and even then, they had six more scoring shots than Port Adelaide and 11 more than the Saints respectively.

A key issue that could arise from this is their over-reliance on accurate kicking for goal, which has traditionally not been a sustainable trait for any team over the course of a full season.

We often see the Lions as a dominant force, but when good teams punish bad teams, it should take into account a buffer for poor patches. 

Of their 10 wins, Brisbane finished with a maximum of four more scoring shots than the opposition on six occasions. Without their own sublime accuracy, or the opposition’s inaccuracy, we’d be looking at a different story with Brisbane's win-loss record in 2022.

Stats Insider's 2022 Brisbane Predictions

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Just how important is a kind AFL fixture?

Is the best way to really measure a team’s AFL premiership chances by the fact they haven’t had any multi-week hiccups?

The Lions lost to the Hawks in Tasmania and started off shockingly against GWS the following round but, by and large, they’ve escaped any sort of media scrutiny compared to the Demons, the Dockers and even the Swans.

We tend to only pick on bad results in the immediacy of the moment without a big-picture view on the season as a whole, which we ought to do with the Lions.

The Lions have only had to play two games against current top four teams and they've lost them both. Brisbane snuck over the line against Collingwood, a peripheral finalist, and couldn’t translate their complete and utter dominance against St Kilda into any sort of worthwhile measurement.

In most of the rest of the games, they’ve bullied lesser opposition and really made the most of their home fixtures.

Since 2019, the Lions are 33-2 in the home and away season at the Gabba. In finals, they’re 1-4 at the venue.

Because the Lions have generally done what they’ve needed to do and posted big scores, there hasn’t been too much opposition to their overall performance, but having only played four of 13 games against current top eight teams, things are a little dicier than at first glance.

The Lions' 2022 run home includes two games against Melbourne, while fixtures against the Bulldogs, Richmond, Carlton, St Kilda, Gold Coast and a resurgent GWS will provide some stiff competition.

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What does it take to win the AFL Premiership?

This is the fourth season the Lions are looking at a top four finish and put simply, they must end up in the top two and give themselves every chance of home finals deep into September.

They have Lachie Neale, the likely leader of the Brownlow Medal race, and Hugh McCluggage in All-Australian form leading the way, while Charlie Cameronsits seventh in the Coleman Medal race with 31 goals.

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Recent history tells us though, it’s defence that wins Premierships.

At the moment, the Lions are conceding 76.69 points per game (ranked sixth), even with the kinder fixture. In 2021, they conceded 72.68 points per game (ranked fifth) and in 2020, they ranked seventh.

Since 2014, only West Coast has won a premiership without a top four ranked defence during the home-and-away season and they missed out on that ranking by a matter of four points, while the Lions are 75 points out of that range.

Individually, Harris Andrews and Marcus Adams rate above average for defending one-on-one contests, defending nine per game between them and losing just two, but the fact the Lions commit so many numbers forward as part of their direct attacking play and seek to apply pressure around the ball means that they’re left open defensively far too often.

The Brisbane backline then relies on the defenders being able to apply tackles or at least provide pressure in the back half to restrict the opposition, to which the Lions aren’t proficient in – Andrews, Brandon Starcevich, Keidean Coleman and Daniel Rich rank below average for pressure acts, while Adams and Darcy Gardiner barely scratch the average level.

It was okay in 2021 when they defended more one-on-ones and had far lower loss percentages as a group, but it gets harder when there’s more space to cover and individuals are looking to attack more.

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The Lions’ 2022 AFL Outlook

We now enter a big final two months of the season for the Lions to prove themselves, despite their current position.

The absolute last comparison they want to receive is to Port Adelaide, a team who won a minor premiership and finished with a home-and-away record of 31-8 across 2020 and 2021.

They had a winning percentage of 77.78 at Adelaide Oval during this time but had a flat-track bully tag associated with them, finishing with an 8-7 record against fellow top eight teams over the two seasons and 1-5 against top four teams, with percentages resembling mediocrity.

A competitive preliminary final appearance is the very least that has to be expected of the Lions this season, but the trends are indicative of a team that may well be a couple of notches off the pace as things stand, despite sitting first on the ladder.

The next nine weeks are important for the Lions but the next fortnight is vital to prove the validity of the club. 

A clash against the Demons in Round 15 is the perfect way to start a new chapter.

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)