A-League Preview: Week 20

With an 'orange smiley' value edge in favour of Wellington against the Victory last week, some of our more conservative subscribers took our advice and backed the Wellington double chance play with great success. We'll claim that as another win for our A-League model! 

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our A-League hub, where you can get full access to all our A-League match predictions plus access to more soccer content.

This week's free play is...

Newcastle v Adelaide

When: Sun 24 Feb 5:00pm EDT

The Play: Under 2.5 goals

Sunday’s double header kicks off in Newcastle, where just three of the Jet's nine home games to date have produced over 2.5 goals, and the model finds a significant edge in that trend continuing as they host Adelaide.

After an unsuccessful tilt for Champions League football, the Jets need to retreat and focus on their defensive efforts, having conceded four during the week and the top six quickly falling out of reach. The return of Boogaard and Georgievski will go a long way towards their quest for just a second clean sheet in thirteen league fixtures.

They’ve begun correcting one large flaw in their game - they’ve found five first-half goals in three weeks to add to just four over the 18 league matches prior to that. 

The Reds saw a five-game unbeaten run come to an end at the hands of Western Sydney, and they now hit the road where they have registered four goals in their last four matches, with the last two (against Glory and City) comfortably falling unders. They’ve lost two in a row only once this season, and have followed a loss with a victory on two other occasions, so expect them to bounce back. 

Just four of the last 11 H2H meetings in Newcastle have seen three or more total goals scored. Nearly 51% of Stats Insider’s 10,000+ simulations are producing results of under 2.5 total goals, which makes the $2.25 currently available blistering value. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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Aaron Murphy

Armchair critic in all sports that don't involve tackle counts. Unashamedly biased towards Victorians. Stands up because he loves the darts. Wisden Almanacks are his idea of a good book. If he's not playing sport, watching sport, or talking sport, he's thinking about sport. Sport.

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