BBL Markets Preview Game 19 - Hurricanes v Sixers
Last updated: Jan 4, 2019, 12:57AM | Published: Jan 4, 2019, 12:15AM
Welcome to Stats Insider's Big Bash Market Preview - your daily look at what the model (and my gut) are seeing in the main markets (and a few exotics) each and every day of BBL08!
What a night in Geelong for the model! Nailed 3/3! Let's see what value there is for punters tonight in Hobart for the Hurricanes v Sixers game.
READ: How Does Our New & Improved Cricket Model Work?
If you haven't already, now is the perfect time to sign up to the five-day trial and get all the data power of Stats Insider Premium FREE for five days! What have you got to lose?
Head to Head
The model is very heavy on the Hurricanes tonight, but not as heavy as the markets are. From the 10,000 match simulations the model has run, the Hurricanes are winning 59% of them which in BBL is a big percentage. The bookies are so far off the Sixers that they have a slight 3% edge from the model even at the 41%. Everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) has to go right for Sydney tonight. $2.50 is a long H2H price but not long enough for my liking against a Hurricanes team that has learnt to not implode.
Most Sixes
No bet here with more of the same story from the model - Hurricanes heavy favourites (52%) compared to the Sixers (36%) yet the Sixers have the slight edge (3%) compared to the markets who can't jump off the Sixers train quick enough.
Highest Opening Partnership
The model has found a 5% edge here for the Sixers in a market it sees as being very 50/50. The bookies (and I must admit, myself as well) don't agree but that's the good thing about the Stats Insider model, you just have to trust it. An edge is an edge and whether the model is seeing O'Keefe as an early wicket-taker, or Denly/Avendano to finally catch fire, or both, the Sixers are over the odds here.
High Bat
There is no value in the Hurricanes market with Short ($3.25) far too short but far too good to jump off at the same time. For the Sixers, I like Silk at $6's and Phillipe at $9's whilst Curran ($21) and Abbott ($41) should be considered as well on price.
Player of the Match
Short at $6's is the safe play. Archer ($10) looks overs which I like and McDermott ($15) is capable of a big match-winning knock whilst Phillipe ($26) and Botha ($26) on the revenge narrative both worth a stab.
Get all Stats Insider sporting predictions - every game, every day - with a FREE TRIAL of Stats Insider Premium.
Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram!
