Big Bash 2018-19 Team Projections
Last updated: Dec 18, 2018, 11:39PM | Published: Dec 17, 2018, 12:17PM
Forget that big ol' Santa guy, the only countdown us sports lovers are focused on right now is the start of BBL08!
Stats Insider has you well and truly covered for all things Big Bash 2018-19, simulating every single game 10,000 times, ball-by-ball, to deliver you the best value edge against the bookies every day. Match predictions for the first few games are already live on site, with the promise of plenty more!
No late-night gift wrapping, no left-out, half-eaten carrots... with Stats Insider, betting on the Big Bash is easier (and even more fun!) than beating your two-year-old at opening Christmas Bon Bons!
RELATED: The Winner of the Big Bash Revealed!
We'll start by taking a little look at the TAB BBL Futures markets compared to the Stats Insider Simulator projections for each franchise in this season's competition. You can check out the updated, dynamic Simulator all throughout the tournament for further projections.
Winner: $6.50
Finalist: $3.10
Semi Finalist: $1.55
Most Losses: $11
Roster: Wes Agar, Alex Carey, Michael Cormack, David Grant, Travis Head, Colin Ingram (SA), Rashid Khan (AFG), Ben Laughlin, Jake Lehmann, Michael Neser, Liam O'Connor, Peter Siddle, Matt Short, Billy Stanlake, Cameron Valente, Jake Weatherald, Jon Wells, Nick Winter
Simulator says: The model likes the Strikers more than any other team in the 2018-19 competition, with the simulator spitting out the Strikers to go back to back in 25% of simulations making them a value play in both the Winner (TAB's $6.50 implies an approximate 15% chance) and Semi Finalist ($1.55 implies an approximate 65% probability) markets.
Author's Take: With Travis Head on national duties and Alex Carey only a Tim Paine finger injury away from joining Head in the Australian setup, there's plenty of pressure on the bats of Colin Ingram and Jake Weatherald. Eight overs of class from elite T20 bowlers, Rashid Khan and Ben Laughlin always keeps the Strikers in the game, and I really like the addition of Matt Short and Jon Wells into that top 6.
Author’s Exotics: Wells should get plenty of opportunity with the bat (#5 or #6 in the order) so that $15 price for Adelaide Most Runs appeals if you can get it or thereabouts.
Winner: $6.00
Finalist: $3.00
Semi Finalist: $1.70
Most Losses: $10
Roster: Max Bryant, Joe Burns, Ben Cutting, Brendan Doggett, Sam Heazlett, Matt Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Josh Lalor, Chris Lynn, Brendon McCullum (NZ), James Pattinson, James Peirson, Jack Prestwidge, Matt Renshaw, Alex Ross, Mujeeb Ur Rahman (AFG), Mark Steketee, Mitch Swepson
Simulator says: Not a lot of value for the Heat in the main Futures markets according to the model, with the Semi Finalist ($1.70 implies a 59% chance) and Winner ($6 implies a 16% chance) prices reflecting the Stats Insider tournament simulations bang on.
Author's Take: The Heat have shed some bowling debris in the off-season and added some class in James Pattinson. It remains to be seen whether the young Afghani spinner Mujeeb Ur Rahman can replace Shadab Khan and help Mitch Swepson in the middle overs - if not, there may be too much for Chris Lynn and Brendan McCullum to do with the willow.
Author’s Exotics: Value galore here for mine. Lynn and McCullum draw plenty of attention which makes the price of Joe Burns to top score for the Heat this series highly attractive at $8’s. The openers have a license to thrill but an early wicket (or two if he bats #4) and Burns is in, and he will place a much higher value on his wicket. Swepson great value at $7 to lead the Heat for wickets in BBL08.
Winner: $8
Finalist: $3.50
Semi Finalist: $1.90
Most Losses: $6
Roster: Jofra Archer (ENG), George Bailey, Johan Botha, Alex Doolan, Jake Doran, James Faulkner, Caleb Jewell, Ben McDermott, Riley Meredith, Simon Milenko, Tymal Mills (ENG), David Moody, Tim Paine, Tom Rogers, Clive Rose, D'Arcy Short, Aaron Summers, Matthew Wade
Simulator says: At just 9% to win (implied odds of $11) and with a 42% probability to make the Top 4 (implied odds of $2.38) a far cry from the TAB’s $1.90 offering, either the Model’s simulations have been overly unkind, or the markets are much more bullish on the 'Canes than they should be. Whatever the case is, there is no value here from the model’s perspective.
Author's Take: Few teams know how to bomb a Big Bash game better than Hobart, so I can understand why the model has underrated them compared to the market. But their first XI has five genuine elites in D'Arcy Short, Ben McDermott, George Bailey, Jofra Archer and James Faulkner. Throw in Matthew Wade on his day, and it’s a good-looking team. An in-form Faulkner is what Hobart have been crying out for and if 'The Finisher' can produce when needed, these guys could be the very real deal in BBL08.
Author’s Exotics: Losing Dan Christian and picking up Faulkner looks (on 2017 form) to be a big negative but remember in almost every other Big Bash season, Faulkner was arguably a top five player in the BBL, which makes the 71-1 odds about him for Player of the Tournament (objectively, of course) crazy good. Yes, his BBL07 was horrible, batsmen worked him out, but he has gone down to Tassie to get his 4 overs a game and bat in the top half of the order – that kind of exposure at $71’s, with his form over the journey, looks too good for me to pass on.
Winner: $7.50
Finalist: $4
Semi Finalist: $2.10
Most Losses: $5
Roster: Cameron Boyce, Dan Christian, Tom Cooper, Zak Evans, Aaron Finch, Marcus Harris, Mackenzie Harvey, Jon Holland, Tim Ludeman, Joe Mennie, Mohammad Nabi (AFG), Kane Richardson, Usman Khan Shinwari (PAK), Will Sutherland, Chris Tremain, Beau Webster, Cameron White, Jack Wildermuth, Harry Gurney (ENG, international replacement)
Simulator says: Melbourne bias in AFL markets are bad, but the odds about this Renegades team might even top that. The model wants very little to do with the Renegades, simulating just a 9% probability (implied odds of $11) of tournament victory - compared to markets around the $7.50 mark), and a 41% chance (implied odds of $2.44) to make the Top 4. It is worth noting that both the TAB and the Stats Insider model have the Renegades pegged around the 20-21% mark to finish with the most losses in BBL08.
Author's Take: With Aaron Finch and Marcus Harris on Test duty throughout the first half of the Big Bash, the Renegades top 6 looks very, very thin, but it’s the length - or lack of - of their tail-end that is the real turnoff for me.
Author’s Exotics: The $9 around Jack Wildermuth for Most Wickets for the red half of Melbourne in BBL08 looks the best value in the exotics, but, to be honest, the $5 for the wooden spoon (most losses, whatever) looks fairly solid. With bowling all-rounder Mohammad Nabi likely to bat in the top five for the first few games at least, that $5 on offer is unlikely to last past the first week!
Winner: $8
Finalist: $3.75
Semi Finalist: $1.90
Most Losses: $6 
Roster: Michael Beer, Jackson Bird, Scott Boland, Liam Bowe, Dwayne Bravo (WI), Jackson Coleman, Travis Dean, Ben Dunk, Seb Gotch, Evan Gulbis, Peter Handscomb, Sandeep Lamichhane (NEP), Nic Maddinson, Glenn Maxwell, Jonathan Merlo, Marcus Stoinis, Daniel Worrall, Adam Zampa, Liam Plunkett (ENG, international replacement)
Simulator says: Despite a string of injuries, the perennial underachievers of the Big Bash competition have seemingly built themselves up over the odds again according to the Simulator, which has the Stars projected as just a 10% chance to win BBL08 (implied odds of $10) - compared to the TAB's 12.5% - and 47% chance of finishing in the Top 4 (implied odds of $2.12). Scant value to be found here.
Author's Take: Injuries to Nic Maddinson (wrist), Seb Gotch (finger), Daniel Worrall (back) and Marcus Stoinis (ankle) have not seemed to impact the Stars much in-market but that is a critical mass of talent missing to start the season. Ben Dunk must fire because as good as Glenn Maxwell is - and make no mistake he is the best T20 player in the country, hands down - he cannot carry a team on his own. Dwayne Bravo needs to produce, and when a team is starting the season relying on a 35 year old all-rounder, and an opener who managed just 115 runs in BBL07 at 11.50, there are massive cracks appearing.
Author’s Exotics: Maxwell must do so much here that the 23-1 odds on offer for Most Runs of the Tournament looks somewhat appealing.
Winner: $5.50
Finalist: $2.50
Semi Finalist: $1.40
Most Losses: $21 
Roster: Ashton Agar, Cameron Bancroft, Jason Behrendorff, Hilton Cartwright, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Cameron Green, Josh Inglis, Matthew Kelly, Michael Klinger, Mitchell Marsh (c), Shaun Marsh, Joel Paris, Usman Qadir (Pakistan), Jhye Richardson, Ashton Turner, Andrew Tye, Sam Whiteman, David Willey (England)
Simulator says: The model likes the Scorchers alot - and honestly what’s not to like? With easily the deepest and most balanced line-up in the Big Bash, Perth go all the way in 15% of Stats Insider's simulations (implied odds of $6.65). According to the Simulator, the Scorchers make the Top 4 in a massive 65% of simulations (implied odds of $1.53), showing slight value in this market. There really isn't much real betting value around Perth given how good their squad is and their tournament history, so, rightly so.
Author's Take: Is too many good bowlers a weakness? With all-rounders Mitch Marsh, Nathan Coulter-Nile and David Willey all capable of batting in the top 6-7 and bowling 2-4 overs each, Perth don’t really need three more seamers. Yet they do have them (and quality ones at that) in the form of Jhye Richardson, Andrew Tye and Jason Behrendorff, who have all played for Australia. Throw in Ashton Agar who is 4 overs of consistent run-containment, as well as the young Pakistani leggy, Usman Quadir. This looks to be a scarily good side if the right lineup is picked each night. They will be very difficult to beat come the back-end of the tournament, when they get Shaun Marsh back at the top of the order.
Author’s Exotics: I can’t find anything to like value-wise about the Scorchers, which is fairly typical of a well-rounded side.
Winner: $8
Finalist: $4.25
Semi Finalist: $2.20
Most Losses: $5
Roster: Sean Abbott, Justin Avendano, Tom Curran (ENG), Ben Dwarshuis, Joe Denly (England), Jack Edwards, Mickey Edwards, Daniel Fallins, Moises Henriques, Daniel Hughes, Nathan Lyon, Peter Nevill, Stephen O'Keefe, Josh Philippe, Lloyd Pope, Jordan Silk, Henry Thornton, Greg West
Simulator says: The Sixers are somewhat of an enigma with the bookies, given their relatively short prices for both the Championship ($8) AND the wooden spoon ($5 - most losses), but the model is fairly consistent on where the Sixers land. Down, down, Sixers are down. With just a projected 8% probability for the tournament win (implied odds of $11) and a lowly 39% to even make the Semi Finals (implied odds of $2.56) the Sixers are not offering any positive value whatsoever according to the Stats Insider simulator.
Author's Take: While Joe Denly is in the top order, and Moises Henriques and Stephen O’Keefe are fit and well, the Sixers are a chance to win any game on their night, but once Denly moves on in mid-January, or if any injuries should strike, the wheels could fall off very quickly. Could mount a strong challenge to the Renegades for spoon honours.
Author’s Exotics: O'Keefe at $11 for most wickets is up there for mine, given his overs with the ball look secure whilst Denly at $7 to score the most runs for the Sixers overall looks excellent value, even if he only plays the first 10 games before heading to the Caribbean.
Winner: $8
Finalist: $5
Semi Finalist: $2.40
Most Losses: $4.25
Roster:
Fawad Ahmed, Jos Buttler (ENG), Pat Cummins, Callum Ferguson, Ryan Gibson, Chris Green, Liam Hatcher, Usman Khawaja, Jay Lenton, Nathan McAndrew, Arjun Nair, Kurtis Patterson, Sam Rainbird, Joe Root (ENG), Daniel Sams, Gurinder Sandhu, Jason Sangha, Shane Watson, Anton Devcich (NZ, international replacement), Chris Jordan (ENG, international replacement)
Simulator says: No one wants to be anywhere near the Thunder in BBL08 it seems, Stats Insider model included. With a win percentage probability of just 7% (implied odds of $14.28) and just a 35% chance to make the Top 4 (implied odds of $2.85), the model is giving the Thunder two and half times more chance to take the spoon this season, than grab the Big Bash title.
Author's Take: I'll be honest here, I'm scratching my head at the Thunder hate. They have arguably the most balanced top 7 in the whole comp with power hitters up front, stroke players who find the gaps in the middle order, a young gun and three bowling all rounders who can all find the fence late.
Author’s Exotics: Joe Root and Jos Buttler may only be available for the first eight or nine games, but while here, the Thunder are a very, very good chance to win any and every game they play. I can see them limping into the Finals on the back of an excellent start to the season, so I personally like the Thunder to make the Top 4 at the $2.40 price.
So, punters, there we have it. Remember, you can check out all Stats Insider's BBL Futures as the Tournament progresses, and if you want to see how the Big Bash could play out, try your hand at the Big Bash Simulator for abit of fun.
Match predictions for each and every game will be live on Stats Insider prior to the bat toss - available to Premium members only - so there's never been a better time to take advantage of our Free Trial offer.
Five days access to Stats Insider Premium? What have you got to lose?
