Key forwards are a great feature of the AFL.

While the smaller players get to work in their different positions, collecting recognition and winning most of the available awards, having at least one good tall in the forward line will generally shape your future in a positive manner.

Generally speaking, the Coleman Medal goes to a key forward on a relatively successful team and is the byproduct of teams using their focal point to great effect – hypothetically speaking, the award should be mutually beneficial for both player and club, given the heavy boost in scoring.

Of course, it doesn’t necessarily indicate team success. Harry McKay won the award in 2021 kicking 58 goals for a mediocre Carlton team while Tex Walker had booted 40 in his first 13 games last season on a bottom-4 outfit.

But for certain, there has never been a “fluke” Coleman Medallist who’s performed poorly throughout the season.

Put simply, this is the only award that is absolutely quantifiable and unable to be tampered with- unless your game-plan involves trying to get Lance Franklin to 100 goals.

Trying to identify the next winner of the Coleman Medal may seem easy enough, but more often than not, the award is still up in the air in the backend of the season.

McKay’s 58 goals were the fewest to lead the competition since John Peck’s 56 goals in 1965, which brought up the former Hawk’s hat-trick of wins at the time.

Further proving the 24-year-old’s outlier of a season, McKay was the first winner of the award to have not featured in a finals team since Jack Riewoldt in 2012, who'd already achieved the feat in 2010.

Since Fraser Gehrig’s 74-goal haul in 2005 earned him the medal in consecutive seasons, only Josh J Kennedy in 2015-16 has won back-to-back Colemans, which debunks many a theory that the most likely winner is the one from the previous season.

If we want to dive down further, only Lance Franklin in 2016 finished in the top-4 of the Coleman Medal the year before he won the award, other than the aforementioned outlier of Josh Kennedy.

Some may see these as coincidences, but the analysis of statistical trends can at least give us an indication of what to expect from this year’s Coleman Medal race and perhaps narrow our selection down.

Using our filters, we can tentatively rule out any player from a non-finals contender and, for the sake of leaning heavily into our data, let’s rule out last year’s top 4 (which actually extends to 6 given equal placings) – Harry McKay, Tom Hawkins, Jack Riewoldt, Taylor Walker, Josh Bruce and Lance Franklin.

Taking everything into account, that leaves us with 4 intriguing Coleman prospects who could be well worth following for the entertainment alone in 2022.

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Jeremy Cameron (Geelong)

The 2019 Coleman Medallist made up great ground in his 12 home-and-away matches last season, kicking 34 goals at a rate higher that would’ve had him placing highly should he have played more games.

The 28-year-old is a genuine goalkicker in every sense of the word from the centre half-forward position, where the Cats like to use him to drag his opponent higher up the ground before turning around and outworking them towards the forward line.

While it does create space for Tom Hawkins, which is the main concern with Cameron given the two-pronged key forward attack, the former Giant was their big money recruit and we can expect the workload to shift around a bit at Geelong in 2022.

The main concern here will be the fitness of Cameron, as there’s little doubt that he can average 3 goals a game.

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Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs)

Naughton had two games in which he was subbed off having played less than a half, which would leave him with 40 goals in 19 games, not bad for a player who is still developing his forward craft.

The Bulldogs are such a multi-dimensional, offensive outfit that it seems difficult to believe that any one player can stand out from the pack, but there is an aura about Naughton, a command of the air that is simply vital for a dominant midfield group to be able to aim for.

It’s easy to forget that prior to the first game he was subbed out of, Naughton had kicked 29.26 in 12 games, averaging nearly 5 scoring shots a game with Josh Bruce in the team.

Whether he’s accompanied by Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Tim English or a bunch of resting midfielders, there’s little doubt that Naughton is the main man in attack in 2022 and his opportunities should be plentiful.

Again, staying on the park will be the tipping point on the scale for the 22-year-old and if he can play 20+ games, the Bulldogs could have their first Coleman Medallist since Simon Beasley in 1985.

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Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide)

We always love a left-field pick, don’t we?

To even acknowledge Thilthorpe you must believe that Adelaide are due to be a team that can at least push the top 12 this season, and that all records in modern history can be broken, with Lance Franklin’s Coleman Medal at 21 years of age an incredible feat.

Perhaps with all the hype of Ugle-Hagan and Logan McDonald, we underestimated just how good the 2nd pick of the 2020 National Draft actual is.

His 5 goals on debut against Hawthorn was an incredible performance, while his 3 goals against the Saints and 18-disposal effort against North Melbourne were just as good.

While not as prolific, finishing with 10 disposals and 2.1 against the eventual premiers was a really strong performance for Thilthorpe and his follow-up, 6-tackle, albeit scoreless effort against them in Round 22 showed that the 19-year-old has multiple ways in which he can impact a game.

With this effort in the air and on the ground, the 200-centimetre key forward will inevitably be rewarded for his efforts and will have all the chances in the world as the focal point of this Adelaide team.

Maybe the Coleman Medal in his second season is a bridge too far, but don’t be surprised if Thilthorpe ends up topping 40 goals and potentially pushes the top 5.

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Joe Daniher (Brisbane)

It was incredibly exciting to see a full season out of Joe Daniher, his first since 2017, and he looked the fittest he has ever been with the work rate he possessed up the ground.

Averaging 14.3 disposals and a career-high 3.4 inside 50s, the former Bomber’s role was similar to Cameron’s at Geelong, where he worked super high up the ground and was a relieving mark for the transition play, before being able to turn around and launch the ball 70 metres into space.

This role worked really well with Eric Hipwood, who is more of a traditional, inside-50 lead-up forward given the space created but, without him, we can expect to see Daniher’s role change.

Darcy Fort and Dan McStay project to settle inside 50, but they aren’t the aerially dominant threat that Daniher is.

The 27-year-old’s career-best season tally is 65 goals and in 2021, he took enormous strides forward in his consistency as a threat.

Charlie Cameron will inevitably get his couple of goals a game, but there’s a lot to like about the Lions finally entering their Premiership window and in terms of a narrative, not many would be better than big Joe winning the Coleman.

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