• AFL
  • NRL
  • NBA
  • College Basketball
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • Tennis
  • Premier League
  • La Liga
  • MLS
  • Golf
  • Racing

Footy Form: Bounce back week inevitable

The Magpies, Demons, Crows, Eagles and Bombers are all in line for a bounce-back win in Round 2.

Richmond v Collingwood

When, Where and Weather: 7:20pm (AEDT) Thursday March 28 @ MCG, Melbourne. 

No rain, not very humid - great conditions for footy.

Comment: Richmond were less than impressive against Carlton last week and are down Alex Rance and Bachar Houli in defence, whilst the Magpies are coming off a loss to Geelong thanks to a lot of wasteful disposal off half back.

One has to think that if the Magpies can clean up their ball movement from their backline into their forward half the Tigers will be pushing it uphill here with a critical mass of talent minding the pine.

Who Wins and Why: With Houli, Rance, Grigg and Caddy all missing for Richmond, I just have to like the Magpies to impose themselves here, their forward line looks to have this depleted Tigers back six more than covered. Collingwood by 22.

Model and Market: Despite the outs for Richmond, the Stats Insider model has simulated a close game here. So close in fact, that the model can’t split them at 86-all. Markets have the Magpies slight favourites and the bookmaker's line has been set at -1.5 so either both model and markets are showing too much Tiger love, or I am wrong… I think we all know the answer.

Exotics Watch: The draw is clearly in play according to the model and the bookies, could be worth a shot at odds. I love the price about big Mason Cox to kick 3 tonight and I also don’t mind Jaidyn Stephenson to snag a treble as well. Just think it’s a good night to throw some darts at the Magpies forward line. Collingwood 40+ is also in play tonight for mine.

View Stats Insider's Free Tgers v Pies Predictions 

 

Sydney v Adelaide

When, Where and Weather: 7:50pm (AEDT) Friday March 29 @ SCG, Sydney. 

Next to no rain forecast but there is the chance of a thunderstorm according to the bureau. Monitor.

Comment: Both teams were pretty poor in Round 1 but in a race to the bottom, the Crows won handsomely given the talent in that side. The Adelaide midfield is so much better than Sydney’s on paper, but if the Crows keep bringing knives to gunfights they will continue to be embarrassed.

This game starts and ends with the Adelaide midfielders. If they can (and they can) get on top then the Crows forwards get half a chance against what looks a pretty settled and capable Sydney back six. Talia to get the Franklin matchup, Keath to Reid.

Who Wins and Why: Sydney was poor at home last season but even if they are at their best, if Adelaide also bring their best then the visitors will win comfortably. We have to assume that both teams want a win badly here and if they play like it, the Crows bat much deeper in the middle, which is where the Dogs got them last week, and where this game will be decided. Crows by 12.

Model and Market: The Stats Insider model has the home team winning by 8 points - 86-78 - and markets have set the Swans line at -6.5pts, so again, I am either overestimating the Crows or underestimating the Swans… or both. Sydney certainly can win this game.

Exotics Watch: The bookies have noticed that Rory Sloane can play abit, dropping from mid $4’s last week to mid $2’s this week for 30 disposals. Can’t see him pulling up short of that 30 mark, but in a contested type game (which this will very much be) on the small ground, Sloane can hit 40. 30 is the saver for the 35/40+ punts. Zac Jones for 25+ worth a look too.

View Stats Insider's Free Swans v Crows Predictions


Essendon v St Kilda

When, Where and Weather: 4:35pm (AEDT) Saturday March 30 @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. 

The roof will likely be closed for this one with rain forecast in the city on Saturday.

Comment: What can we say about the Bombers first round effort that hasn’t already been said about the Greek economy? An absolute disaster start for the much-hyped Bombers, but they get as good a chance at redemption as possible and the footy world is expecting a response game here against a St Kilda side that did it's absolute best to lose to the Suns.

Acres, Brown and Marshall all good in’s but the Saints are giving a lot away in the ruck to Bellchambers who I expect will be putting it wherever his midfielders want it all game.

Who Wins and Why: After what they served up last week, the Bombers will win this game on shame alone – the big question is just by how much. Bombers by 25.

Model and Market: Based off 10,000 match simulations, the model is predicting a 19 point victory for the Bombers (98-79), whilst markets have the Bombers as short as $1.36 in H2H markets with a -19.5pt spread.

Exotics Watch: Marvel is condusive to run and carry footy which brings Andy McGrath into the game for 30+. Don’t mind Shaun McKernan to kick a few sausage rolls here at good odds either.

View Stats Insider's Free Bombers v Saints Predictions


Port Adelaide v Carlton

When, Where and Weather: 5:10pm (AEDT) Saturday March 30 @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide.

No rain forecast, perfect weather for footy.

Comment: The Power beat a sub-standard Demons side and all of a sudden the footy world has hailed them contenders again. Just hold on a second, guys, because the Blues are more in this than you think.

Yes, Port played well but it was largely on the back of youthful run and that’s exactly what Carlton have as well. Charlie Curnow had one of his worst ever games against the Tigers and Calton still almost won. Don’t write the Blues off here, good chance to be in touch late.

Who Wins It and Why: Justin Westhoff’s 250th game will ensure the Port are up for this, and I do expect them to win but I can see them having to work for it. Hard. Port by 10

Model and Market: The Power are winning 83% of SI’s 10,000 simulations, with the model predicting a 35 point Port Adelaide win. The Power are incredibly short at the bookies too, with Carlton getting over six goals at the line (+33.5).

Exotics Watch: Tom Rockliff is stupidly short odds to hit 40+ as is Patrick Cripps. No value there for mine. Zac Fisher and Sam Powell-Pepper both appeal for 25+ games while Todd Marshall looks the value option in the goal scoring markets.

View Stats Insider's Free Port v Blues Predictions


Geelong v Melbourne

When, Where and Weather: 7:25pm (AEDT) Saturday March 30 @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong.

Forecast showers and possible hail for parts of Melbourne on Saturday. Monitor.

Comment: The Demons will be out for redemption, whilst the Cats are near unbeatable on their home deck. This game will be toughly contested and any rain will exponentially increase that.

Steven May will play his first game for the Dees, as will Kade Kolodjashnij. I am prepared to forgive Max Gawn’s Round 1 effort and assume he has a big say in this game.

Who Wins and Why: There will be just a kick in this for mine. The Cats are very tough to beat at home but if May can contain Hawkins - which I think he can particularly with some weather assistance - then the Dees can win this ugly. Melbourne by 5.

Model and Market: 58% of the model’s 10,000 simulations are landing on the Cats which is a sizeable margin in what looks a real coin flip game. Markets are gifting the Demons +8.5 at the line so whilst both model and bookies expect a tight contest, they are coming down on the side of the home team.

Exotics Watch: A lot of Round 1 form baked in here. There is value about the Dees at the Line and H2H. The Tri-bet is also in play. I don’t love anything in the goals or disposal markets given the weather risk in Geelong.

View Stats Insider's Free Cats v Demons Predictions


West Coast v GWS Giants

When, Where and Weather: 8:10pm (AEDT) Saturday March 30 @ Optus Stadium, Perth.

Perfect weather for footy.

Comment: Massive bounce-back game for the Eagles here. I failed to factor in the conditions at the Gabba last week, and the Eagles were 25 up at QT before the ball turned to soap, and the tall side they went in with just couldn’t compete with the quicker, smaller, hungrier Lions.

GWS, in contrast, were near-perfect against the Bombers at Spotless in Round 1. This will be a much tougher task in Perth against the reigning AFL Premiers, though.

Who Wins and Why: Josh Kennedy returns and captain Shannon Hurn is playing game 250, at home, in front of 50,000 screaming Eagles fans. You just don’t win a flag, lose to Brisbane in Round 1, and not play Round 2 like your footy life depends on it. The Eagles just won’t drop this game. Eagles by 20+.

Model and Market: The Stats Insider AFL model has the Eagles winning this game in 68% of it's simulations, with a predicted scoreline of 94-77. That is almost bang on the -17.5pt line the markets are offering for the Eagles.

Exotics Watch: Fire up your Dom Sheed for 40+, still great value and if he can peel off 35+ in horrible Brisbane conditions, he can go even bigger here. Chris Masten playing game 200 could be highly motivated to have a big one, solid odds if you like him to find the footy. Love Lewis Jetta for 20+. Amazing value. Zac Williams for 25+ also appeals. Stephen Coniglio is resting deep forward when not on-ball, so a few goals frokm the superstar mid would not surprise.

View Stats Insider's Free Eagles v Giants Predictions 


North Melbourne v Brisbane

When, Where and Weather: 1:10pm (AEDT) Sunday March 31 @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. 

Roof will likely be closed with a very small chance of rain. 

Comment: A dry Marvel surface against a wounded opponent – most of the footy world is waiting for this clash to see if the Lions are the real deal in 2019.

No need to wait for mine, they absolutely are and they can smash North here. I don’t see a real weakness in this Lions team, which is scary to say at their age demographic, but it’s true. The Kangaroos, on the other hand, are carrying 3 or 4 players, which in a game like this makes all the difference.

Who Wins It and Why: Brisbane are deeper in the midfield, more settled and secure down back and more dangerous up forward. Better form from Round 1. Just better all around. Lions by 10.

Model and Market: Both model and markets are clearly signaling a tight contest, with the Line set for the Lions at +1.5. The model has the Lions winning by 1pt 92-91.

Exotics Watch: Tri-bet’s are in play here. Lions value H2H. Love the value about Trent Dumont for 30/40 touches, whilst for the Lions, Hugh McCluggage can clear the 25-30 disposal mark at great odds. 

View Stats Insider's Free Kangaroos v Lions Predictions


Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

When, Where and Weather: 3:20pm (AEDT) Sunday March 31 @ MCG, Melbourne. 

Very slight (0-1mm) chance of rain, unlikely to impact play too much but as always, monitor.

Comment: This will be a cracker as two strong Round 1 winners meet at the MCG for what looks like a really free-flowing, high-scoring game.

Who Wins and Why: If the Dogs kick straight they can give Hawthorn a big scare here, but the Hawks have too many avenues to goal to let this one slip. Hawks by 8.

Model and Market: Both model and markets have the Hawks running away by just over 3 goals, with the line set at -19.5. I think it will be closer to one straight kick. 

Exotics Watch: Dogs value H2H for mine. Hawthorn's Worpel, Shiels and O’Meara all in play for 30+ at value. Aaron Naughton value for 2/3/4 goals and this is a game where Luke Bruest can kick 6.

View Stats Insider's Free Hawks v Bulldogs Predictions


Gold Coast v Fremantle

When, Where and Weather: 4:40pm (AEDT) Sunday March 31 @ Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast. 

Forecast is for sunshine, but on the Gold Coast one never knows. It will either be raining or humid - in either case, ball movement is rarely at its best in the Sunshine State after dark.

Comment: Freo belted the Kangaroos in Round 1 while the Suns went down to St Kilda – not great form lines for the Suns to have much chance here.

But wait – enter the humidity factor! It will have rained for 5 days straight on the Gold Coast come Sunday, when it is forecast to be sunny. Conditions will be ripe by 5pm for extreme humidity and dew factor to completely destroy ball movement.

Who Wins and Why: The Dockers have the better top end talent, and the better and more experienced spine, but the conditions will keep the Suns in this past the point they deserve to be. Dockers by 10.

Model and Market: The Stats Insider model has simulated a reasonably 'dominant' 18 point win to the home team. I’m not sure about the 94-78 scoreline though, as these conditions could well be a defenders dream.

Exotics Watch: Like the Suns at the line, LOVE the Unders. Brayden Fiorini for 30+ remains value for the second week in a row.

View Stats Insider's Free Suns v Dockers Predictions

Check out our AFL Hub for more comprehensive AFL content, fixtures, predictions and results.

Making Stats Insider free is a conscious effort to make advanced analytics and predictive data more publicly available to Australian sports fans, punters and everyone else. 

Join in the conversation and tell us how you feel! 

Drop a comment at the bottom of the page to participate in discussion with like-minded-sports-and-data-nerds 👇

Follow us on Social Media!
FACEBOOK / TWITTER / INSTAGRAM

Dan Fraser

Former ABC Journo and Champion Data stats nerd who loves his fantasy sport, punting, footy, cricket, golf - you get the point. More than prepared to take driver off the deck from 250 out (especially if it's for a beverage or two!) but will also happily take my medicine when the occasion calls for it. Pumped to be part of the Stats Insider team - if it's value and it's footy, I'm all over it in 2019 folks!

Related Articles
Loading...
More Articles