AFLW 2019: Round 4 Preview
Last updated: Feb 22, 2019, 9:36AM | Published: Feb 22, 2019, 9:32AM
We are only three weeks into the season but thanks to the farcical fixture, Round 4 could see more than a few teams kiss their season goodbye.
When, Where and Weather: 4:45pm (AEDT) @ GMHBA Stadium. Kardinia Park is hands down the best AFLW stadium there is and these two sides will get great weather for it. Ideal conditions for expansive, high-scoring footy.
Comment: Mel Hickey and Rochelle Cranston will both be much better second up. Aasta O’Connor returns as well who is an influential leader at the club and is likely to take majority of center bounces. The move will likely push Madeline McMahon to permanent key defence. Madi Keryk revenge narrative.
The Blues get Tayla Harris despite her head-high bump and they have brought in Rhi Watt who had a huge VFLW season. Might even start first ruck then rest forward. Will both stretch the Cats defence.
Who Wins It and Why: It’s all out of the middle here. If Cats can contain Prespakis with a hard tag I think the rest of their midfield gets it done out of the middle enough to stay competitive. Going to be a really close game so I’ll lean with the Cats who have a few more guns in their arsenal than Carlton who are relying on 2-3 players to have monster games. Cats by a kick.
Match Page: Cats v Blues
When, Where and Weather: 7:10pm (AEDT) @ Whitten Oval, Melbourne. Fine and sunny is the forecast Saturday afternoon for this grand final rematch between two sides missing several stars from their 2018 campaign.
Comment: Whispers are that late changes are possible for the Lions particularly some of their star backs who are racing the clock to prove their game day fitness. Brisbane are already light on in defense so any further change will impact the result pretty significantly.
If teams stay as named I still like the Dogs on the back of their star quartet of Blackburn, Lamb, Conti and Brennan. That gets it done here against a Lions team that is carrying 3-4 players at the moment which is really impacting their team defence. As always a big Lutkins game may stem the flow of Bulldogs inside 50’s enough for Brisbane to have a sniff but teams have been excellent at going around her this season.
Who Wins It and Why: On exposed form the Bulldogs will win this well, but GF replays tend to have a way of tightening up and I expect this to be no different. Dogs by 6
Match Page: Bulldogs v Lions
When, Where and Weather: 9:35pm (AEDT) @ TIO Stadium, Darwin. There is a chance of a severe thunderstorm in Darwin which makes this game a very very different beast so strongly advise checking radar really close to opening bounce.
Comment: if the rain stays away and we get good conditions for footy, this game will be a corker. Both teams have skillful, tough onball brigades, so the clearance battle will be great to watch. Expect Foley to be dominant in the ruck so it’s a case of whether the Dockers can read and shark her taps.
The clearances will be crucial because both sides possess effective, fast forward lines that can convert opportunity to points. Be very interesting to see where Freo play Ebony Antonio. She has been used as a forward this season, to good effect, but it will be very tempting to play her back and attempt to curtail Erin Phillips when she pushes forward.
Who Wins It and Why: In the wet it’s Adelaide, hands down. In the dry, I still think the Crows get it done. They would have got plenty of belief against the Cats in terms of reward for effort which was the only element missing from an otherwise dominant start to the season. Adelaide by 8.
Match Page: Crows v Dockers
When, Where and Weather: 2:05pm @ Morwell Recreation Reserve, Victoria. The Pies take this home game to Gippsland where the weather looks fine and sunny with not much wind to speak of – perfect for footy!
Comment: The weather is about where the good news starts and ends for Pies fans despite the fact they are hosting the winless Giants. No Ash Brazill is huge. She has been the Pies best player with daylight second and probably third as well.
The Giants were horrible last week against Carlton but it was due in part to their composure (and a little bit of pressure from the Blues). The good news for the Giants is they have the skills to play better. The same cannot be said for Collingwood.
Who Wins It and Why: No Brazill no show. If the Giants bring their same level of clumsiness and hesitancy to this game they will only just sneak in but if they play with any composure whatsoever they will romp home.
Match Page: Magpies v Giants
When, Where and Weather: 4:05pm @ Casey Fields, Melbourne. Expect winds to make this a 'take advantage when it's your turn' type clash. Goals against the breeze will hurt thrice as much.
Comment: First things is first, the Dees CAN win this. They have superstar onballers, a great spine and a zippy half forward posse capable of causing the Kangas problems. The caveat here is that the Kangas look so good across all lines that the Demons will need to repeat their efforts of last week and perhaps take it up a gear to be in the game.
I don't think either side will tag which makes clearances huge. Can see a big game from Meg Downie here. The intercepting defender has not needed to star much this season so far but she could be the reason Melbourne are still in the game heading into the final term.
Who Wins It and Why: North's form has been A+ so I can't back against them here but Melbourne are almost playing for a finals spot - after losing to Fremantle in week one, the Dees are approaching do-or-die territory in the pool of death. North's accuracy to get them home - Kangas by a kick.
Match Page: Demons v Kangroos
