7 games, 2 teams, 1 point, 1 trophy - that's the equation to determine the winner of the 2021/22 Premier League. 

Manchester City and Liverpool have developed an intense rivalry with one another in recent times. However, unlike most rivalries, this is built on mutual respect and the increasingly spectacular footballing levels that they have driven each other to achieve. In this period both clubs has evolved in seemingly impossible ways. City was the first side to hit 100 points in the Premier League. The next season they finished on 98 points, piping Liverpool to the title by a single point. However, the Reds lifted up the Champions League in Madrid mere weeks later. The following season saw Liverpool win their first-ever Premier League title, before City responded the following season, winning their 3rd league title in four years. 

It comes down to this, 7 games left of the Premier League season and it’s never been closer. This could be the perfect finale to what’s been one of the best footballing eras, but who comes out on top? Let’s look at the case that’s presented for both sides. 

Punters- At TopSport, Man City are paying $1.36 to win the title while Liverpool are at $2.96.

History for Pep?

Manchester City is the perennial contender. They will always be up there challenging for the title, if not winning the title itself. That notion has only been perpetuated through Pep Guardiola’s reign of dominance. He has transformed an underperforming club into an English powerhouse that is capable of winning every competition they so desire. The ‘tika taka’ style, while being slightly less obvious in this city outfit, has landed in Manchester ever since Pep arrived. Regardless of the opposition, they pass nearly every team off the park and do so in scintillating fashion. The intricate passing patterns and the awe-inspiring movement off the ball have made them one of the most feared sides in Europe. Despite being sometimes ‘boring’ to watch, as their 600+ passes a game can get tiresome for some people, it is undeniable that their football has been extremely effective and has blown almost every competitor out of the water. 

The perhaps key difference in the Man City from 2021/22 to those of previous seasons is the lack of a recognised striker. With Sergio Aguero leaving for a free in the summer and Gabriel Jesus being deployed on the right-wing for the majority of the season, it’s been a false-nine fest for Pep Guardiola. With the likes of Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden, Kevin De Bruyne and Ikai Gundogan all playing that pseudo-striker role at various stages this season. While on paper this could seem to be the only weakness in this City team, it has in fact been one of their unique positives, with their newfound tactical flexibility and unpredictability causing trouble for the opposition. The effectiveness of this can be seen through their chance creation stats, they lead the league for shot-creating actions per 90 with 29.06 and passes into the final third with 51.9 per 90. 

Manchester City has by far been the overall best team this season. There is not much debating about that, the statistics say this, and the infamous ‘eye-test’ says this. Even look at the most recent EPL encounter between the two. City dominated the game, and it took a few missed chances and very clinical finishing from the Reds for that game to end 2-2. However, how do they only find themselves one point clear, with a lesser goal difference than their nearest rival? Well, Crystal Palace has taken 4 points off them this season, Southampton got a point at home and Spurs did the double over City. These needless dropping of points at various stages throughout the season has cost City dearly, now all they need to do is hang on. 

Punters- Man City have never won the UEFA Champions League, yet at TopSport you can get $2.2 about that equation changing this season. 

Greatness awaits Jurgen Klopp

Liverpool love being the hunters. Everything about them screams underdogs. And this season couldn’t have exuded that more. After the debacle that was last season, with injuries coming at all angles, this had to be a year of redemption for the 19-time English champions. They came out of the blocks firing, not losing a game until November, however a 3-game spell of dropping points allowed City to extend the gap at the top of the table to 13 points. However since then Liverpool has not let up, not dropping a point in the league from January 3rd all the way until their most recent game against Manchester City, a perfect record that’s seen them close the gap all the way to a solitary point. 

Whereas City’s dominance has come from systematically picking their way through lesser opposition and passing the opposition into submission, Liverpool goes about their domination in different fashion. While they do have a system and a tactic that is very intricate in its own right, their brilliance this season has come off the back of ruthless efficiency and individual brilliance. Mohamed Salah is the headline example of the latter, with his stretch of games towards the back end of 2021 leaving everyone in awe and showing just how good he is. When looking at the former, the stats speak for themselves. Liverpool have the most shot-creating actions per 90 with 4.19 as well as having the best goals per shot ratio with 0.13 and goals per shot on target ratio with 0.37. 

The Reds has been able to maintain excellence throughout every competition available, with at the time of writing, the quadruple still being a very real and attainable possibility. They would still have that 2018/19 in the back of their minds and will be wanting to do everything in their power to upset the apple cart and traumatise City- just like City traumatised them. With the likes of Luiz Diaz and Thiago Alcantara added to the squad since 2018/19, they will have as good a chance as ever to make City experience the same pain they felt. 

Punters- At TopSport, Liverpool are paying $2.18 to win what'd be a 7th Champions League crown this season. 

Who crosses the line first?

It’s anyone's guess. At this stage the Stats Insider futures model has City at a 66.7% chance with Liverpool sporting 33.2% probability while there are still a lot of factors still to play out.

Looking at the run-in, the Reds have by far the harder fixtures with games against Spurs, Everton and Manchester United still to play. Both sides still have the Champions League to still worry about as well, while Liverpool also has an FA Cup final against Chelsea on their horizon. 

It’s bound to be an enthralling final 7 games, with twists and turns certain to unfold. However, it might not be the final chapter of the story, as a potential meeting in the Champions League final also looms as the match to end end all matches.

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