La Liga Betting Preview: Week 10
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If you love backing goals and more goals, you'll love the value that the Stats Insider model has found for the La Liga this week after a good round of results in Week 9!
The Game: Athletic Bilbao v Valencia
When: Sunday 28 Oct, 1:15am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals
Valencia sit in 14th despite losing just once this season and the early value has been snapped up, with the visitors from 3.20 into 2.90. The model has identified an edge still available on the over 2.5 goals market, and the stats mostly back it up.
A total of 16 goals (3.2 per game) have been scored at Athletic Bilbao’s five home games, with both teams finding the back of the net in four of them. Without a clean sheet to their name and just one game in which they failed to score, there’s enough to suggest they’ll be on the board here.
That leaves the visitors, who have scored and conceded in the majority of their matches (five times each).
The Game: Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad
When: Sunday 28 Oct, 5:45am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score
Atletico Madrid have drifted horribly from 1.35 to 1.55 since markets opened, and and the 8.50 once available for Real Sociedad is long gone. Given that Real Sociedad are 2-0-0 when playing away from home as the underdog (having beaten Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao), you’d be brave to risk them at this point.
On that basis, I’m tipping them to take a point against an Atletico side that still aren’t in fifth gear and have dropped points in three of their last six. The model finds great value in the over 2.5 goals play, though that’s hard to have when just one Atletico match has gone overs. Much prefer the orange smiley for the Both Teams to Score play when I can see Sociedad pinching a 1-1 draw as Villarreal did last week. Real Sociedad held Girona – a side that had failed to score only twice this season – to a 0-0 draw.
Worth noting that Real Sociedad have comfortably won their last two at home against Atletico, though doing it away is, of course, an entirely different kettle of fish.
The Game: Barcelona v Real Madrid
When: Sunday 29 Oct, 10:00pm EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals
The visitors have been backed in from 4.00 to 3.40, which gives favourite-backers a 2.00 price now for Barcelona, who snapped a four-game winless run at home to Sevilla last week. Barcelona are 4-1-0 as home favourites this season.
Sevilla were the side who began Real Madrid’s four-match rut with a 3-0 destruction, but it’s worth noting that Real Madrid have won three and drawn one of their last four visits to the Camp Nou.
This is no doubt Lopetegui’s ‘grand final’ so I’ve no doubt that Real Madrid will show up to this encounter. Much prefer to back the safer over 2.5 goals play, given that Barca have scored 2+ in 32 of their last 36 league games at home and, well, Real Madrid are suffering their worst start in 17 years.
The Game: Deportivo Alaves v Villarreal
When: Monday 29 Oct, 4:30am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both Teams to Score
Typically a high scoring fixture, the model has produced orange smileys for both teams scoring as well as the overs in what I’d contend is the match of the round outside of the El Clasico.
Alaves are unbeaten in their last five at home, with both teams scoring and the total going over 2.5 in half of their matches this season. Alaves are rated as outsiders for the tenth consecutive time despite winning five of their nine this season including against Real Madrid!
Four of the last five meetings between these sides have produced three or more total goals and the model believes there is a good price to be found in it happening again.
The Game: Sevilla v Huesca
When: Monday 29 Oct, 6:45am EDT
The Play: Both Teams to Score
Potentially a very lopsided encounter here, but some value to be found nonetheless. Sevilla are very short favourites and continue to firm against a struggling Huesca side who are out of their depth and haven’t yet tasted victory this season.
But with the favourites having kept just two clean sheets this season and conceding six goals in their last three matches, the model finds an orange smiley in the BTS market – not a bad play given that Huesca scored twice in their first three away games to open the season.
Have just a small stake on this one: got to #TrustTheModel, but need to also trust in Huesca finding the back of the net for just the second time in seven matches.
