La Liga Betting Preview: Week 11
Last updated: Oct 30, 2018, 4:16AM | Published: Oct 30, 2018, 4:16AM
Looks like an early Monday morning (or a very late Sunday night!) for our La Liga followers, with four of our five value games to come on the Sunday night/Monday morning matchday, including a game that starts in Barcelona at 9pm local time on a Monday evening. They do things a bit weirdly in Spain, don’t they?
Note: based on value identified by the model at the time of publication. Subject to change closer to kickoff, so check the match pages on game day for up to date information.
Who: Leganes v Atletico Madrid
When: Sat Nov 3, 11:00pm EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both To Score - YES
Nice and early for the first value game of the round and two green smileys are on offer as the model sees a tremendous price in both teams contributing to a game total of 3+. The reason? Both Leganes and Atletico continue to produce scorelines well below their ‘expected goals’ range and, as a result, the prices have been overcorrected.
Just one Atletico game this season has gone overs (a 3-0 home win to Huesca) while just one of the last seven matches involving Leganes have done so. The last two meetings between these sides finished as 0-0 draws.
It’s important to note that, while the model doesn’t see both teams scoring and over 2.5 as the more likely outcomes (36% and 38%), the Stats Insider service is all about finding edges for the punters to use as they see fit. However, should Leganes produce the kind of effort that saw them put two past Barcelona and Real Sociedad at home, while Atletico returns to the kind of form that saw them score 58 last season, these two plays could turn out to be a steal.
Who: Villarreal v Levante
When: Mon Nov 5, 2:15am EDT
The Play: Villarreal to win
Great news for favourite backers, with the model presenting an orange smiley for Villarreal to get their first home win of the season after a tough couple of opening months.
After a late and shattering away loss at in-form Alaves, the hosts have a trip to Almeria in the Cup during the week, which should help to play them into form ahead of this one. They have shown some better intensity and fluency of late, particularly against Atletico Madrid and against Rapid Vienna in their European journey.
Levante travel to Villarreal off the back of four consecutive wins, including on the road at Getafe and Real Madrid. However, they haven’t taken any points away from Villarreal since 2011. Both teams have scored in just one of the last eleven competitive fixtures between these sides.
Who: Huesca v Getafe
When: Mon Nov 5, 4:30am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both To Score
Since a change of manager in mid-October, Huesca’s fortunes have unfortunately not changed, with no wins to their name since an impressive performance in opening week. Interestingly, their worst football has been within the comforts of home, where they have just one point and one solitary goal to their name (with seven conceded) from four matches.
In spite of the two losses, Huesca have looked a better football side under Francisco, sitting deep with a back three and defensive midfielders while putting together some slick counterattacks. They’ve registered more shots than their two opponents combined (21 to 20) in two weeks but for no reward, and could put together their best effort at home this week.
They last met Getafe in 2016/17, in the second division promotion playoffs. Both legs went over 2.5 goals, with Getafe triumphing 5-2 on aggregate, and both teams scoring in the 2-2 leg at Huesca.
When: Mon Nov 5, 6:45am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals / Both To Score
5% orange smileys on offer for the overs as well as both teams to score. Real Betis have failed to score in their last three matches, struggling badly to break down some solid defences. Atletico and Getafe have conceded four goals between them in home matches, while Valladolid, who won at Real Betis two rounds back, have conceded just four on the road.
Real Betis get their chance to bounce back against a Celta Vigo outfit who have failed to win any of their last three on the road, and have scored six and conceded seven in four matches on the road.
With Celta Vigo scoring in all but one league match and keeping just two clean sheets, this presents an opportunity for both teams to find the back of the net. Both teams have scored in seven of the last eight meetings between these sides, with five of them finishing over 2.5.
Who: Espanyol v Athletic Bilbao
When: Tue Nov 5, 7:00am EDT
The Play: Over 2.5 goals (small stake)
The round finishes up on Tuesday morning with another opportunity to back the goals rolling in. The stats point to a tight fixture, however, the edge according to the model lies with the overs.
With Barcelona leading the table by just the one point, Espanyol are one of the surprise packets not far away from claiming a top two spot usually held by Real Madrid. After an away draw at other top-half side Valladolid described by manager Rubi as “angering”, Espanyol return home looking to maintain their perfect home record as well as extend an unbeaten run to six.
They tackle Athletic Bilbao, who have conceded nine goals in their last six matches, including 1-3 losses on separate occasions to Villarreal and Real Sociedad. Both teams have scored in all four of Bilbao’s away matches this league season.
Hard to back the overs with any confidence here, so I’d be recommending a small play or leaving it altogether.
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