NFL Preview: Week 15

The best way to describe Week 14: miraculous. Whether it was the final touchdown in Miami, the fourth quarter arm of Patrick Mahomes or the Bears defense, there were miracles everywhere. For a lot of teams, Week 15 could be the part of a miraculous surge towards the postseason. 

Apart from half a dozen teams, the rest of the league is technically “still in the hunt” including even the Cleveland Browns. With both six seeds up for grabs (and the AFC North), this week will feature some desperate football as teams fight for their lives. Bring it on.

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our NFL hub, where you can get full access to all our NFL predictions plus more regular content.

Here are our & the Stats Insider Model’s favourite plays for Week 15 of the NFL season:

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW YORK JETS

WHEN: Sunday 8:30am AEST

THE PLAY: Houston -6

This game marks the very first Sunday fixture of the season for Australian NFL fans. The Texans three-point loss last week at hands of the Indianapolis Colts brought an end to their nine-game winning streak and the Jets went into Buffalo and walked out with a victory. 

The Jets are one of the very few teams out of playoff contention while the Texans are still a chance to either snatch the first-round bye from the Patriots or lose the division to the Colts. Motivation will not be a factor for the Texans.

The bookmakers currently have their probabilities at 50/50 at the 6 point spread. The Stats Insider Predictive Model 10,000 simulations of the match has spotted some edge in the Texans' favour. The Model has Houston covering the -6 point spread 58% of the time which indicates some value on them this week. Even if that line moves to -6.5, the edge still hovers around a +4%. Anything over 7 eliminates the Texans from the Model’s perspective.

It’s going to be interesting to see the Texans bounce back from that loss to the Colts. While a loss is never good, sometimes it can be better for a team in the long run. It gives them the ability to adjust & make the necessary changes to get back on track. The idea of heading into the playoffs with a 13 game win streak would have placed an incredible amount of pressure on them. 

The Texans 8th ranked DVOA defense matches up nicely against the Jets 30th ranked DVOA offense especially up front. Watt, Clowney & Mercilus should get to the QB early and often and force the Jets into plenty of third and long situations. The Jets are 1-6 straight up and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games, that should continue with the Texans getting back on track in this one.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay +8

This fixture sees the Winston led Bucs travel North to face newly anointed starting quarterback Lamar Jackson & his back up Joe Flacco. The Baltimore Ravens had the Chiefs last week. They had them on the ropes. All they had to do was make a simple stop on 4th and 9 to end the game. They didn’t. The rest is history as the Chiefs rally & win the game in Overtime. 

That win would have launched the Ravens well ahead of the Steelers in the North. The Buccaneers, despite their carousel at quarterback all season long, are technically still in the hunt for that elusive NFC 6th seed.

Tampa Bay have been one of the Stats Insider Model’s favourite teams all season long and Week 15 is no different. The Model has Tampa Bay covering the +8 spread 58% of the time giving us a +8% edge. 

We’re on the same page as the model here for a number of reasons. Firstly, this is classic let down spot for the Ravens after coming within whiskers of a victory against the Chiefs. Secondly, this Buccaneers Defense has been much improved of late only surrendering an average of 18 points per game across their last 3 games as opposed to over 30 before that. 

And lastly, this Ravens run-first offense with Lamar Jackson at QB isn’t exactly a points machine. The Ravens covers against the Raiders & Falcons relied upon 2 defensive touchdowns and a special teams touchdown. Ravens get the win here but the Bucs keep things close.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Washington +7.5

You’re probably looking at this and thinking “of all the games Week 15 has to offer and these guys choose this one, these two teams.” Yeah we know, this is a gross matchup but we (and the model) can’t ignore the edge on display. The Stats Insider Model has the Redskins covering the massive +7.5 point spread 58% of the time giving them a +8% edge. The number will be close to +10% if that line shifts to 8 points. 

This Jaguars side should not be a touchdown favourite against any team in the NFL. Their unbelievably stale offense has managed just a single touchdown in two weeks with Cody Kessler at quarterback. And their defense? Well apart from being embarrassed by Derrick Henry last week, they have given up an average of 340 yards a game across their last three, well above their season average. 

Washington, despite their ugly quarterback situation, still are “in the hunt” for the playoffs and have more motivation than their opponents. Josh Johnson showed a lot more offensive prowess when he took to the field than Mark Sanchez and they cannot possibly be as bad as they were last week. Washington are 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games after an against the spread loss and they have a great chance to cover this massive spread especially with a low 36 point total.

NOTE:

We have plenty more discussion and plays available on our podcast, check out The Punt Return Podcast. 

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

How do the Stats Insider predictions work?
READ: What is the Edge?

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