NFL Preview: Week 16

Week 15 saw little brother beating up on big brother as a number of teams finally got the better of their rivals. We saw the Browns break an 11 game losing streak with their win over the Broncos, the 49ers break a 10 game losing streak against the Seahawks and the Chargers broke their 9 game losing streak against the Chiefs in tremendous fashion. 

That wasn’t all, as the Steelers knocked off the Patriots ending their five-game losing streak and the Bears won the NFC North with a win over the Packers ending a five-game losing streak. The stage is now set for an explosive Week 16 with endless possibilities and playoff scenarios all in play. 

The week is highlighted by four great games with the Steelers @ Saints, Ravens @ Chargers, Texans @ Eagles and Chiefs @ Seahawks all having dramatic playoff implications. We won’t be touching on those games here. 

In our previews, we will compare our 10,000 simulations of every outcome compared to the bookmaker’s 50% market. Based on this data, we’ll determine whether there’s a clear betting advantage on certain markets. This can offer a clear long-term, profitable betting strategy more often than not.

For more information, visit our NFL hub, where you can get full access to all our NFL predictions plus more regular content.

Here are our & the Stats Insider Model’s favourite plays for Week 16 of the NFL season:

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

WHEN: Monday 5:00am AEST

THE PLAY: Under 45

This game sees the Patriots, fresh off two straight losses, hosting the Buffalo Bills. The last fixture between the two finished with a 25-6 New England victory. The Patriots haven’t lost three straight games since 2002 and should take care of business here as 13 point home favourites. 

The Stats Insider Model has found an edge on the total in this one with the Under 45 occurring 56% of the time, giving us a +6% edge. We like the Under here as well and expect a similar scoreline to their first game.

While all the focus has been on Tom Brady and the offense, the Patriot defense has been great over their last seven games. The Pats have held their opponents to 17 points or less in six of their last seven games (slip up in Miami being the exception). 

New England only allow 19.7 points per game at home this season & face an anaemic Bills offense that is only scoring 15.1 points per game on the road. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo are 3rd in the NFL in opponent points per play and should offer some resistance to an offense that will now be without Josh Gordon. The under has hit in 4 of New England’s last six home games & five of Buffalo’s last six road games. Take the Under.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

WHEN: Monday 8:05am AEST

THE PLAY: San Francisco +4

The Stats Insider Model started the season going 3-0 on the Bucs against the spread & 2-1 on their Moneyline. It became a big talking point on the Punt Return Podcast. It’s looking like the 49ers are the Model’s team to close out the season. 

San Fran & the SI Model are on a golden ATS run with the model going 2-0 against the spread & on the moneyline across Week 14 & 15. The Model loves the 49ers again this week with a massive +11% edge on them +4 at home to NFC North Champion Chicago Bears. This edge also means the moneyline will be a play for the model as well. 

The 49ers are coming off two of their better outright wins of the season, ending Denver’s playoff chance & delaying Seattle’s by a week. Across those wins, the defense has only allowed 18.5 points while producing 5 sacks and 15 QB hits. Nick Mullens has proven he is a viable back up quarterback in this league and the emergence of Dante Pettis has helped the offense move the chains. 

This looms as a “trap game” for the Bears who have to travel East to West after celebrating their division win & face a team on an extra day’s rest. The 49ers have had the Bears number of late winning four of the last six games between them. Chicago is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco and we think the 49ers have a good chance to cover for the third straight week. 

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

WHEN: Monday 11:15am AEST

THE PLAY: Under 43.5

It wouldn’t be a Stats Insider Holiday Season without having a play on Christmas Day! The Stats Insider Model has found a +8% edge on the Total on the Christmas Day game with the Under 43.5 occurring 58% of the time. 

Both these teams are officially out of playoff contention and won’t have a lot to play for so this game may be a bit of snore (maybe focus on the Christmas Ham instead?), although this could potentially be the last NFL game in Oakland. 

These teams both rank in the bottom third of the NFL in some key offensive numbers which definitely point you towards the Under. In Yards per game the Broncos are 18th while the Raiders are 23rd, in First Downs Per Game the Broncos rank 20th and the Raiders 24th and in points per game the Broncos rank 21st and the Raiders 29th. 

While Oakland’s defense is one of the worst in the league, the Denver offense has struggled moving the chains since Emmanuel Sanders went down and Demaryius Thomas was traded. Add in Denver’s 4th ranked DVOA defense and we have the perfect recipe for a low scoring division game. Denver are currently on a 5 game Under Streak and the total has gone under in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland. It’s a boring Christmas Day play but take the Under. 

NOTE: We have plenty more discussion and plays available on our podcast, check out The Punt Return Podcast.

Remember, the Stats Insider projections are dynamic and are subject to change right up to the jump. Always gamble responsibly.

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READ: What is the Edge?

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