After 17 long weeks, the stage is finally set for the NFL Postseason. The surprising presence of the defending champs led by the most mysterious quarterback in recent NFL history, Nick Foles, adds plenty of intrigue to NFC while all six of the AFC teams won between 10 and 12 games. When you look at all of the teams in the playoffs, you can easily make the case for every single one of these teams. The 2019 postseason should be one for the ages. 

In the Wild Card edition of The Punt Return Podcast, Darryl Data & Wye open the show discuss any potential value in the Super Bowl LIII odds with Darryl seeing some value in the Eagles at $34, the Seahawks at $31 and the Ravens (if you can get $21). The Patriots are the apple of Wye’s eyes right now, he likes them at $8 and believes they are being a bit overlooked due to Tom Brady’s form. He states that Bill Belichick is the greatest advantage in the sport at this time of the year and always gives the Patriots a great shot to make the Super Bowl. 

Before going game by game with their picks and bets, Wye mentions some key statistics about wildcard weekend including:

• Last Season the Wild Card Teams went 2-2 straight up and 4-0 against the spread against the division winners
• Home teams that close as favourites of 2.5 points or less are just 1-7 against the spread in Wild Card Games since 2000.
• Teams that play a home playoff game in the wild-card round after not making the playoffs the season prior are 10-22 against the spread.

This episode of the Punt Return also included some bonus content with the guys discussing the College Football National Championship game between Clemson and Alabama and also giving you their favourite DFS plays from Draftstars, Moneyball and Draftkings. There is all of that and plenty more, just click to download below:

Wild Card Preview

The first game of Wildcard Weekend sees the Colts travel to Houston to take on the Texans. This is the only game of the round that both Darryl and Wye have a consensus play in. They both like the Under 48.5 with the model giving a nice +5% edge. Wye likes the under and leans towards the Colts here because:

“Both these teams rank inside the top 10 in defensive DVOA with the Texans finishing 4^th and the Colts 10^th. The Texans have allowed the 3^rd fewest points per home game this season with an average of 17 points and four of the last five games between these two teams have gone Under. Despite going 1-1 against the Texans in the regular season the Colts outplayed the Texans in both games edging them by 0.3 yards per play in their first meeting and 2.0 yards per play in their second meeting. The Colts finished the season allowing the least amount of sacks in the NFL, while the Texans allowed the most. The Colts strengths matchup really well here.”

In the second game, the Cowboys host the Seahawks and the guys talk up the running backs from a DFS perspective with the Fantasy Insider Lineup cruncher liking both Chris Carson and Ezekiel Elliott. From a betting perspective, Wye continues his love for the underdog and mentions:

“Only one of Dallas’ 10 wins this season came by more than one score with the Week 6 beatdown of the Jaguars being the only one. We now know that the 2018/19 Jaguars stink. Conservative play calling, inconsistent quarterback play and a stout defense invite plenty of close games and that leaves the door firmly open for the Seahawks to get ‘DangerRuss’. The Seahawks are 2-0 in their last two games against the Cowboys and Russell Wilson has thrived as an underdog (17-6-1 against the spread) and in primetime (22-5-1 straight up in his last 28 prime time games). Combine those two together and the Seahawks are a perfect 5-0 as an underdog in primetime in their last five games. The Seahawks should make this game very interesting with some big plays on offense and daring Dak Prescott to beat them deep.”

In what should be the best game of wild card weekend, Baltimore host Los Angeles in a Week 16 rematch. That week 16 fixture finished with the Ravens pounding the Chargers 22-10. The line in this game keeps hovering around the 2.5/3 point mark making it a tough one to play. 

The model has this dead on with the Chargers by 3 so the line movements between now and kick off will be pivotal in playing this game.  Wye notes that Chargers have been stitched up massively by the NFL schedule makers with this game set to kick off at 10:30am California time but sees some interesting trends that point him in the direction of the Chargers:

“The Chargers have a big advantage in this game that they didn’t have when they met in Week 16: they have played Lamar Jackson. In Week 16, they had very little preparation for the electric running quarterback but still managed to hold him to just 39 yards but allowed 200+ yards from him in the air. They’ll be able to adequately prepare for him this time around. The Chargers are also better on the road this season than at home, boasting an incredible 7-1 against the spread road record. The Ravens are also just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games at home. Furthermore, playoff favourites of less than 3 points since 1980 that are facing a team with a better record are just 3-12 straight up, this situation is firmly in play here. The key for the Chargers here is getting enough protection for Philip Rivers. The O-Line has been a mess in the last month and the Ravens have the best pass rush in the NFL. If they can provide Rivers with time, they’ll go a long way to winning this game.”

The final game of Wild Card weekend can best be summed up by the brilliant words of NFL Network’s Gregg Rosenthal who wrote: “it's a clash between the league's best defense and the league's most improbable phenomenon: Nick Foles' late-season magi”. 

The Bears host the Eagles in what many are expecting to be a low scoring slugfest in the elements of Soldier Field. Darryl and the SI Model, however, have some different thoughts and have some contrarian thoughts in this one. Wye finishes his dog day afternoon with yet another play on the road dog:

“The Eagles find themselves in familiar territory. They’re yet again road dogs with Nick Foles at the helm. Since their blowout loss to the Saints in Week 11, the Eagles have improved dramatically on both sides of the football. Their offensive & defensive lines have played near the form that brought this team success last postseason. The Eagles defense in the last month are allowing just 4.8 yards per play (good for fifth in the NFL) and they finished the season with a league-best 44.64% opponent red zone TD scoring percentage, meaning they hold teams to field goals more than anyone. This bodes well for them given that Cody Parkey has missed three field goals within 40 yards this season. If the Eagles can hold the Bears to field goals and their offensive line manages to do a decent job protecting Nick Foles (and his injured ribs) from Khalil Mack & Co, the Eagles can cover the near touchdown spread.”

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