It's the time of year for optimism in the NRL. 

Every club, player and fan is anticipating an improvement on last season. Most consider themselves a finals side while some will enter Round 1 with a 'premiership or bust' mentality. But as we know, somebody has to come last. 

Wooden Spoon teams have averaged 4.9 wins across the last ten 24-game seasons. The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - last year's 16th-placed side - won only three games and finished with a -370 points differential.

Like most teams, they're welcoming in new players to the fold and expecting them to have an instant impact. But, again, we know that isn't always how it plays out and a few teams will be scrambling for answers by Round 8 or 9.

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Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs - $13

The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs are a bit of a roughie for the wooden spoon this season. 

They've added Matt Burton, Josh Addo-Carr, Brent Naden, Matt Dufty, Paul Vaughan and Tevita Pangai Jr. among other fringe first-graders to the side for 2022. Still, it would be foolish to wipe them out of wooden spoon contention entirely.

Teams finishing 16th win roughly five games in that season. While it's only two more than what the Bulldogs managed in 2021, three bottom-placed teams have won six games in the last ten 24-game seasons and the 2015 Knights won eight games before finishing last.

The Bulldogs, with all of their new additions and optimism, need to win twice as many games as last season to comfortably avoid the spoon - maybe more.

They're going to need some time to gel, too. Cohesion remains a significant yet still grossly under-appreciated part of the best-performing teams, and the Bulldogs have a long way to go in that department. A brutal start to the year won't help either:

Round 1 - @ Cowboys
Round 2 - Broncos
Round 3 - @ Sea Eagles
Round 4 - @ Storm
Round 5 - Panthers
Round 6 - @ Rabbitohs
Round 7 - @ Broncos
Round 8 - Roosters

That's a tough, tough start for a side that is going to struggle in their combinations throughout the opening rounds of the season.

A difficult fixture to start means a favourable finish, but the Bulldogs may have too much work to do by then. It's not hard to look at that opening draw and see the Bulldogs with only three wins in eight rounds. Perhaps only two.

The Play- At TopSport, you can snap up $13 about the Doggies winning a second straight spoon. There might be a handful of teams above them, but that price may well represent the best value on offer. 

St. George-Illawarra Dragons - $5

The St. George-Illawarra Dragons seem to be the consensus pick to finish near the bottom of the NRL ladder.

After overachieving to start the 2021 season to be 8th after Round 19, an eight-game losing streak dropped them to 11th by the end - still a decent achievement given the expectations on them before Round 1. However, a lot of the same concerns remain heading into 2022.

The Dragons managed just 1,539 metres per game last season. Only the 16th-placed Bulldogs performed worse in yardage. Francis Molo is a handy addition but will do well to replace Paul Vaughan's (now at the Bulldogs) 143 metres per game. And while Aaron Woods and George Burgess are recognised names, neither present as hugely influential signings right now.

For better or worse, Matthew Dufty played a significant role in the Dragons' early-season form and often looked like their only source of points. His frailties in defence saw him end games as a net-negative too often, but his ten tries and 11 try assists in 15 games will be difficult to replace.

Ben Hunt, Zac Lomax and Mikaele Ravalawa present as a potent attacking edge on the right side. However, we're back to the lack of yardage. The Dragons earned only 24 tackles inside the opposition's 20-metre line last year and the quality of the pack hasn't improved enough to suggest they will win many more opportunities per game in 2022.

The Dragons finished 11th in scoring with 19.8 points per game and 11th in good ball efficiency with 0.82 points per tackle inside the opposition's 20-metre line. They're relying on a 19-year-old Tyrell Sloan at fullback, a 19-year-old Talatau Amone at five-eighth, and a 32-year-old Andrew McCullough who has dished out three try assists in three years and not averaged more than 50 running metres per game since 2014 to improve the attack. 

Sloan and Amone are exciting talents but will struggle to put in complete performances every week while McCullough isn't likely to last the full season. 

Yardage and how the spine plays behind it is crucial to success and both are huge areas of concern for the Red V.

The Play- At TopSport the Dragons are $5 third favourites to collect a first spoon in the club's 24 seasons of amalgamated existence. 

Wests Tigers - $3.30

The Wests Tigers are so often part of this conversation in March.

Even after adding some quality talent and showing some promising signs at times throughout 2021, they're the bookies' favourite to finish 16th before Round 1 kicks off.

A lot of that will have to do with Adam Doueihi.

He is recovering from an ACL injury and will miss the start of the season. Given it typically takes players roughly 18 months to completely recover, we're unlikely to see the very best of the 23-year-old in 2022. The influential five-eighth handed out 17 try assists across 20 games last season and quickly became one of the best players at the position. That didn't stop Michael Maguire from shifting him out to the centres which is another cause for concern.

The Tigers have a lot of options. Maguire will be tempted to move players in and out of the squad until he lands on a 17 he's happy with. It proved to be an issue in 2021 and Doueihi's injury - along with another ACL injury for Shawn Blore - doesn't help.

But those options do set the Tigers up to pick up enough wins to avoid the spoon.

Tyrone Peachey's addition to the side has flown under that radar despite the 30-year-old bringing with him the skillset Wests have desperately lacked in recent seasons.

Alex Twal is superb defensively and strong enough as a ball carrier but offers nothing with the ball in hand to those around him. When Twal takes possession, the defence can turn in and send three players into the tackle knowing he is unlikely to move the ball wide. Twal averaged only one pass per game last season. Peachey, on the other hand, has found a home in the middle of the field. His versatility and ball-playing helped the Titans climb to 8th on the ladder in 2021 and he will be tasked with doing the same to the Tigers in 2022.

Jackson Hastings is an excellent temporary replacement for Doueihi and another option for Maguire at lock. Between Doueihi, Hastings, Peachey and Luke Brooks, the Tigers can effectively run with three halves on the field at once, promoting quick ball to their attacking edges. Oliver Gildart - signed from the Super League to play in the centres - has all the skills to make the most of the clean and early ball provided to him by whichever trio is on the field at the time.

Consistency remains a concern for the Tigers. They still have a lot of work defensively and those issues can compound in a game or across multiple weeks. Still, there looks to be too much talent in this side to finish at the bottom.

The Play- Despite not playing Finals since 2011, the Wests have also managed to avoid 'winning' a Wooden Spoon in that time. With that said, TopSport is currently positioning them as the $3.3 favourites to claim it in 2022.

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