The Man Who Needs To Win The U.S. Open More Than Anyone Else
Sep 7, 2020, 4:35AM
The title of this piece is provocative. Why? Because titles are designed to be provocative. However, if creating a provocative title for a column, a writer should make sure the actual column represents truth in advertising.
The substance of a column needs to be consistent with the title. One should not slap a title on a piece which doesn't then explore the content of the title itself.
So, I need to be honest. I need to make sure I deliver what the title promises to give to you.
Let's begin, therefore, with an explanation of the title itself.
"The man who needs to win" the 2020 U.S. Open -- now that Novak Djokovic is out after an extraordinary and shocking default on Sunday in New York -- is a topic which needs to be treated with great care.
'So unintended. So wrong': Novak Djokovic apologises after US Open disqualification π
β Stadium Astro (@stadiumastro) September 7, 2020
How's your Monday going? pic.twitter.com/Qd7TDlRlJP
You might very reasonably think that "the man who needs to win" the U.S. Open must win this tournament at all costs. You might reasonably conclude that when saying one man needs to win this tournament, I am applying a career-changing level of pressure on the men left in the field. "This guy better win the tournament" could be interpreted -- honestly and sincerely -- as an attempt to instil fear into these ATP players.
"YOU BETTER WIN, OR ELSE!"
"YOU BETTER WIN, OR YOU'RE NOT GOING TO FORGET THE DISAPPOINTMENT!"
"YOU BETTER WIN, OR YOU'RE NEVER GOING TO ESCAPE THE PAIN!"
"YOU BETTER WIN, OR YOUR CAREER IS NEVER GOING TO FULFIL ITS POTENTIAL!"
No. "Needing to win" more than anyone else is not intended to apply that level of pressure on these athletes. It is not a matter of "Do this now, or it's a disaster!" No. That is NOT the focus here.
When I say that one man needs to win the 2020 United States Open more than anyone else, I am referring less to the downside, and more to the upside.
I am not referring to a nightmare scenario created by a loss. I am referring to the positive, transformative power of a championship.
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If there is one man in the men's field who needs to win the U.S. Open more than anyone else after Djokovic's remarkable exit from the tournament, there are three clear choices: Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, and Alexander Zverev.
One can make a case for that any of these three men really need to win the U.S. Open more than the other players left in New York.
For Medvedev, a 2020 U.S. Open title would fill the emptiness created by last year's loss to Rafael Nadal in a U.S. Open final which easily could have gone either way. Medvedev was amazingly impressive in a three-month stretch of 2019, from August through October. His work from Washington D.C. through Shanghai was astounding. It was a tour de force from a non-Big 3 player, the kind of high-level consistency only Djokovic, Nadal and Federer had delivered over the previous 15 years.
If Medvedev wins this tournament, his hardcourt reputation will grow. No, it won't soar the way it would have if he had been able to play and beat Djokovic in the final. Nevertheless, a championship at the U.S. Open will mark Medvedev as the best non-Big 3 hardcourt player on tour, giving him a massive boost heading into 2021.
Given that ATP tennis in particular -- like modern tennis in general -- is primarily hardcourt-based, Medvedev has a lot to gain from a title at this U.S. Open.
What about Alexander Zverev? He is in Djokovic's half of the draw, so he is obviously the favourite to make the final from that top half. If he goes all the way and wins the U.S. Open, a man who has not yet reached a major final could undergo a quantum leap in his psychological outlook and how he sees himself. There is a convincing argument to make that if Zverev wins the 2020 U.S. Open, he -- not Medvedev or Thiem -- could make the most profound transformation.
Jez has been working me hard πͺπΌ #ROAR https://t.co/77zljhjHsq
β Alexander Zverev (@AlexZverev) September 6, 2020
The big counterpoint to that argument is as follows: Zverev -- especially if he doesn't play Thiem in the final -- will not have faced the titanic test which can provide unquestionable proof that he has reached a higher plateau. Zverev has a 5-1head-to-head advantage over Medvedev, so beating him in the final won't remove all doubt from a discussion of where Zverev stands on the ATP Tour. Beating Thiem would count for a lot more. Ultimately, though, not facing any of the Big 3 en route to a possible major championship would still leave a lot of pundits -- such as myself -- wondering if Zverev could fly freely and begin to dominate men's tennis in 2021 and beyond.
Let's consider the case for Dominic Thiem in this discussion.
Thiem -- a lot like Medvedev at the 2019 U.S. Open -- came very close to beating a member of the Big 3 in a hardcourt major final when he pushed Djokovic to five sets in the 2020 Australian Open final.
(You remember the 2020 Australian Open, right? It was seven years ago, given how 2020 has proceeded.)
Thiem knows he is very close to breaking through. His game has evolved on hard-courts to the point that he can be viewed as a legitimate major-title contender at every non-Wimbledon major. Grass is the one surface where his game lags behind the rest of the ATP Tour. Clay is still his best surface, but Thiem has shown in the past two years that his hardcourt game can compete for huge trophies on the predominant playing surface in modern professional tennis.
If Thiem -- in the bottom half of the draw with Medvedev -- can emerge as the champion this upcoming weekend in New York, he could overcome the final obstacle on a path to considerable career success. At age 27, though, Thiem's biological tennis clock is ticking with more urgency than Medvedev or Zverev, who are younger than 25. Yes, Medvedev and Zverev have enormous upside to gain with a win this coming week, but they have a lot more time to take the big step which can transform their careers.
Think of it this way: Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev are going to be judged by how they perform the next 10 years. Dominic Thiem will be judged by how he does the next five or six.
Finally, we can have a new men's Grand Slam champion this year, in the #USOpen2020
β Mohandas Menon (@mohanstatsman) September 6, 2020
Could be anyone from...
Dominic Thiem (favourite)
Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev
David Goffin
Andrey Rublev
Pablo Carreno Busta (dark horse)#USOpen
If Thiem can break through at a major tournament in New York, and gain the extra measure of confidence which could elevate his game against Djokovic and Nadal at the majors in 2021, Thiem could be viewed in the fuller course of time as the man who truly took the baton from the Big 3 and Andy Murray. His legacy would be transformed on a level we can't currently imagine.
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The 2020 U.S. Open men's tournament is a huge opportunity for everyone left in New York.
David Goffin has a huge chance. Vasek Pospisil is playing the tennis of his life, and he has already taken down Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut. He has to be thinking he has a chance to do something remarkable.
Yet, among all the men left in the Big Apple, the man who needs to win the U.S. Open the most -- to boost his career and improve the chances of fulfilling every ounce of potential in his body -- comes down to Medvedev, Zverev, and Thiem.
Medvedev and Zverev have very good arguments to be sure, but Dominic Thiem is the player in the best position to take off as a result of a championship. Thiem could soar and roar in 2021 if he can come through in New York this next week.
The Big 3 figure to make a strong stand in 2021, but if one man can use the 2020 U.S. Open as a launching pad and surpass the Holy Trinity of men's tennis next year, it's Austria's Dominic Thiem.
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