Two rounds down, a heap more to go, and bettors are trying to make sense of the early thrusts of the AFL season as much as everyone else is. 

Today, a betting note of interest for all 18 teams, a task we’ll be tackling in reverse alphabetical order starting with the Eagles. 

A note that most of the references to odds in this piece refer to prices available at TopSport.com.au.

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West Coast 

There were massive concerns heading into the season and in just two rounds it’s all become pretty grim for the Eagles, so much so that we can legitimately be talking about a wooden spoon. Only the one spoon in their previous 35 seasons but West Coast are now in the league’s bottom 3 where favouritism for that unwanted accolade is concerned. If you can get your hands on anything over the $6 mark consider it value. 

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Western Bulldogs

Rather than thinking about seeking revenge for their Grand Final meltdown the Dogs ought to be more focused at this stage on just getting back to the finals. The 2021 runner’s up have already slipped into a 0-2 hole, their defence looks all at sea and up front Aaron Naughton is getting very little help.  If there is a consolation it’s that the Dogs have faced the AFL’s hardest fixture so far with games against Melbourne and Carlton, yet markets have legitimately shivered at what they’ve seen with the club drifting from second favourites for the flag out to $10 fourth favourites.

Sydney 

It’s taken only two rounds for most in the football world to appreciate that the Swans are a legitimate 2022 premiership threat. They started the season around the $15 mark but are now the third favourites for the flag with anything $10 or above now representing value. They’re up against the Bulldogs at Docklands next, a venue where they’ve actually won 20 of their last 26 matches.

St Kilda 

A St Kilda wooden spoon wouldn’t surprise, but then again neither would a top 4 finish such is how hard it is to get a read on just what the Saints are up to. Outside of the impossible to assess Eagles, St Kilda are the AFL’s most perplexing team at the moment, following up a dreadful first-up performance against Collingwood with a solid win in Perth against the Dockers on Sunday. Markets appear to be just as confused, offering $2.75 about the Saints playing finals in 2022 which was pretty much exactly what they were trading at in the pre-season. 

Richmond 

The unfortunate Dustin Martin situation will hover over the Tigers until he’s well enough to resume playing- a situation that’s already affecting their betting situation as Richmond navigate the early rounds of the season. Martin’s absence meant they went from favourites to two goal underdogs against the Giants on Sunday, and despite winning without him, you can still find $17 about a Richmond premiership this season which is about 5 or 6 more points more than what they traded at in the pre-season. If you love the Tigers and think Martin could return that price could represent some excellent value for admirers.

Port Adelaide 

The Stats Insider alarm bells were ringing loudly in the pre-season, signalling value on the Power to miss the finals in 2022. If you did get on, you’d be delighted by their troublesome start which most recently saw them destroyed by the Hawks on their home deck which followed a laboured effort agents the Lions at the Gabba. Interestingly you can still get plus money about Port failing to get their stuff together and play in September. If that’s a proposition that interests you it’s also worth considering that two of their next three games are against Melbourne and Carlton. 

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North Melbourne 

The Roos are back into wooden spoon favouritism despite winning their first game of the season against the Eagles. To me that seems a stretch and I’d be looking to bet around that price and towards teams like West Coast, Adelaide or even Essendon where that ‘honour’ is concerned. That said, many shops have taken down their wooden spoon price for now owing to so much chaos, with BetFair your best chance to get any action down. 

Melbourne 

The reigning premiers and league’s standout team, though one who suffered a rare ‘expected points’ loss to the Suns over the weekend. Not the biggest deal in the world, and probably testament to an improved Suns side, but something to keep in mind nonetheless. 

Meanwhile is it worth having a think about Ben Brown for the Coleman? He’s already kicked 5 goals, ranks 4th for marks inside 50, remains a ridiculously accurate kick for goal and has the luxury of that Demon midfield constantly providing him opportunities. He’s paying $9.25 at TopSport, but has traded at around the $12 mark at BetFair, and in a wide-open field that’s something that should be considered. Something else is the fact that Melbourne play Essendon this week and who’ve so far paraded as the league’s leakiest defence through the first two rounds.

Hawthorn 

Two outright wins as betting outsiders and the Hawks have gone from a pre-season Wooden Spoon fancies to a possible top 8 threat. Speaking of finals you can grab $3.25 if you think that’s something Hawthorn can pull off in Sam Mitchell’s first season as coach. That said, if you are tempted by that price do keep in mind that 4 of their next 5 matches are against Carlton, Geelong, Sydney and Melbourne. 

GWS Giants 

Once again, the Giants are behind the 8-ball, losing their first two games, shipping 100+ points in both contests while winning just a solitary quarter from the 8 on offer. Interestingly, markets haven’t been too spooked and there’s still value at around $1.62 for them to miss finals in 2022. Though that price doesn’t seem sparkling, it will should they lose either of their next two against the Suns or Fremantle. 

Gold Coast 

Perhaps the story of the season so far, nearly toppling the Demons on Saturday and actually leading the ‘expected score’ ladder. Scoring was supposed to be a massive weakness in the wake of Ben King’s season-ending injury yet the Suns already boast 8 players averaging a goal or more a game, up from the 3 they mustered over the course of 2021. Their Wooden Spoon price has almost doubled while some might even start thinking about the Suns making finals for the first time in club history, a proposition which will return you $7 on every $1 invested. 

Geelong

Expected scores actually suggest the Cats should be undefeated and paint a picture of these guys having the best attack in the competition through the first two rounds. There is though an large element of boredom in terms of the wider AFL world’s assessment of the Cats and that’s reflected in betting markets too where this pretty damn good team is still paying $13 about winning a flag in 2022, and $2.4 about finishing top four for a 13th time in 16 seasons. 

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Fremantle 

A blown opportunity for a really solid start to 2022 with Dockers barely getting by Adelaide in round 1, before producing a curiously insipid performance against St Kilda on Sunday in Perth. Just 15 scoring shorts and 42 inside 50s should be of massive concern for a team who enjoyed a lot of pre-season buzz, but who are again sitting toward the back of the line where their September prospects are concerned. If you can ignore the form, and the Nat Fyfe injury report, then perhaps that $3 represents value- though I’m not so sure. 

Essendon 

Already the Bombers are in the fight of their life to get back in the finals race, a prospect made all the more massive by a two-month injury to star midfielder Zach Merrett. The worst defence in footy so far, the second-worst clearance team and a squad that’s surrendering an AFL-worst 6,389 metros gained to opponents. They’re paying $1.37 to miss finals and with an immediate match-up against Melbourne, that’s a price which could be worth a think. Also worth keeping in mind is that they’re paying $34 for the wooden spoon at BetFair.

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Collingwood

Their wooden spoon price has swapped from around the $7 mark in pre-season to $30 courtesy of their 2-0 start. While knocking off St Kilda and Adelaide needn’t freeze the footy world in their tracks, the way they’ve annihilated both victims has been impressive, getting on the outside and using their foot skills to ensure easy wins. They are paying $2.75 to play finals which is the same price as St Kilda, while 3 of their next 5 games are against West Coast, Essendon and Gold Coast. 

Carlton

It’s hard to pretend to keep cool about how seriously impressive these guys have looked over their first two games with their premiership price cut from $33 to $12 after knocking off both Richmond and the Bulldogs.

Carlton will start favourites in every game from here until at least round 9 when they host the Swans, giving them them the kind of fixture which should lay the ground work to sure up a finals spot. They’re still paying $3.75 about finishing top-4 which seems one of the best prices available across the board while $1.65 also seems very high about them playing into September. 

Brisbane 

It’ll be inevitable that Brisbane are continually saddled with a bunch of ‘yeah buts’ until they prove their game can hold up in September. And that’s a bit of a shame as it’ll mean we can’t fully admire how attractive a brand of footy they do play, the likes of which has enabled them to skip out to 2-0 while conceding just 144 points across both games. They are now outright second favourites for the flag at $6.5, though curiously that’s only come in marginally from their pre-season price.

Adelaide 

It’s looking like another season of misery for the Crows. They’re just about favourites to win a second Wooden Spoon in 3 seasons with virtually nothing in their early form is suggesting they won’t be right in the mix. If you’d prefer a little optimism about Adelaide it’d be the fact that Josh Rachele looks seriously good and is an $8, third favourite for the Rising Star.

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