AFL Expert Tips for Round 21, 2022

Last updated: Aug 5, 2022, 4:27AM | Published: Aug 4, 2022, 11:10AM

To give you an advantage with your AFL tips for Round 21, Stats Insider has AFL expert tips for every game this weekend.

Gain the edge in AFL tipping competitions with the help of our data-driven AFL predictions for Round 21 of the 2022 AFL season, the result of simulating every AFL game over 10,000 times.

For reference, AFL tipsters that followed our Round 20 AFL tips 2022 article correctly tipped seven out of nine games.

AFL Expert Tips for Round 21

Melbourne vs Collingwood

In this week's opening AFL game, we are tipping second-placed Melbourne with a 71% win probability, according to our industry-leading predictive analytics model, while Collingwood has a 29% chance of recording its 11th win in a row.

RELATED: AFL Top Four Predictions

Melbourne vs Collingwood is at the MCG on Friday, August 5 at 8:10pm AEST.

Hawthorn vs Gold Coast

Despite the Suns being betting favourites, our tip for this game is Hawthorn, which has a 55% chance of winning. We predict that Gold Coast has a 45% chance of winning.

Hawthorn vs Gold Coast is at the University of Tasmania Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 1:45pm AEST.

GWS vs Essendon

After simulating this weekend's Giants-Bombers game 10,000 times, our tip is GWS, which has a 53% chance of winning. The Giants' opposition in Essendon has a 47% chance of winning.

GWS vs Essendon is at Giants Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 2:10pm AEST.

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle

According to our model, the Western Bulldogs have a 73% chance of winning, while Fremantle has a 27% chance.

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 4:35pm AEST.

Geelong vs St Kilda

One of this week's biggest favourites is Geelong, who we are tipping with a high level of confidence. On the other hand, St Kilda is predicted to have a slim chance of causing an upset.

Geelong vs St Kilda is at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, August 6 at 7:25pm AEST.

Port Adelaide vs Richmond

Port Adelaide is projected to have a 55% chance of winning by our model, while Richmond is projected to have a 45% chance of winning.

Port Adelaide vs Richmond is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, August 6 at 7:30pm AEST.

North Melbourne vs Sydney

The tip here is Sydney, which has a 95% chance of winning, against North Melbourne, which is predicted to have a 5% win chance.

North Melbourne vs Sydney is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, August 7 at 1:10pm AEST.

Brisbane vs Carlton

In Sunday's marquee AFL game, our model projects Brisbane as a 76% chance of winning, while Carlton has a projected win probability of 24%.

Brisbane vs Carlton is at the Gabba on Sunday, August 7 at 3:20pm AEST.

West Coast vs Adelaide

In one of the weekend's tightest games, Adelaide has a 52% win probability against West Coast, which is projected to have a 48% chance of winning.

West Coast vs Adelaide is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, August 7 at 4:40pm AEST.

AFL Tips For This Weekend - Round 21 2022

Melbourne
Hawthorn
GWS
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Brisbane
Adelaide

RELATED: Tips for Every AFL Game

All AFL tips this week and probabilities in this article are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.