There’s one thing having a ‘hunch’ about a teams season’s prospect and putting a few dollars down. It’s another thing entirely to have that hunch supported by data to help better inform that decision and perhaps make some real money. 

Thankfully, we’ve got Stats Insider in our corner and who are fresh off running their numbers ahead of the start of the 2022 season. 

Already a few very interesting betting opportunities have emerged from the data, so without further ado, let’s have a look at where some of the early value might be lurking. 

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Port Adelaide to miss the eight 

Two straight finishes in the top two and two straight preliminary finals as well, yet the SI numbers are pointing to a possible slide this season for Ken Hinkley’s men. 

At this point in time, Port are figured as a a 53.3% chance of making finals. That’s just a tad better than a flip of the coin proposition which isn’t a projection being mirrored in most betting shops where the Power are mostly trading at around the $1.35 mark.

The Play- Based on the SI numbers, Port missing the top 8 could be well worth an investment. TopSport are currently offering $3.4 about them missing, keeping in mind the SI numbers are suggesting that price 'should' be closer to the $2 mark.

If you are thinking about going against the Power it’s also worth remembering how brutal their fixture is, particularly in the early part of the season. In the first 10 rounds alone they’ll play in 4 different states, and that doesn’t include side trips to Geelong and Cairns. Furthermore, 4 of their first 10 games are against teams who won at least one final in 2021. 

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St Kilda to make the eight

Lats year, the SI number crunches evaluated St Kilda’s fixture as being by far the most brutal in the AFL and factored that in to underestimate their finals prospects relative to market. Their forecast was proven correct with the Saints never kicking into gear and missing finals for an 8th time in 9 seasons. 

This year however the model is a lot more optimistic about St Kilda and is currently assessing them as a 46.8% chance of playing finals which is a figure that’s much more boisterous than most betting markets. 

The Play- TopSport are currently offering $2.5 about St Kilda’s season continuing into September, while their price has even traded at around the $2.9 mark at Betfair as well. These are strong numbers, especially considering the SI numbers would suggest the price ‘should’ be around the $2.1 mark and especially considering how generous St Kilda’s fixture is and where they won’t meet a single finalist from 2021 until Round 6. 

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West Coast to miss the eight

The Stats Insider model was skeptical about West Coast’s chances last season and indeed the Eagles went on to miss the finals for the first time in 7 years. Once again, the model is preaching caution about any kind of West Coast revival. Most markets are presently grading the Eagles as about a $2 prospect of making the 8, yet the SI model is a lot more pessimistic, assessing them as just a 38.7% chance of playing in September. 

The Play- While no, it’s not as strong a lean as Port missing out, the SI numbers still suggest value where West Coast failing to make the 8 is concerned with Bet365 offering $1.72 about that happening. If you’re not completely enamoured with that price it could be worth waiting a little. West Coast’s early fixture is gentle and they won’t face a team who won a final in 2021 until Round 6. If you think they’ll navigate that fairly easily yet you still don’t like their long term prospects, it could be prudent to revisit this one a little down the road and with even healthier odds than present. 

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