Collingwood's 2022 AFL Premiership Chances: Is the Hype Real?

Collingwood has been the AFL's best feel-good story in 2022, though there is still some unfinished business for the Magpies.

Round 22's 27-point loss to Sydney ended the extraordinary 11-game winning streak Collingwood had been on with an average winning margin of 10.45 points – its seven games following the bye were won by a combined total of 45 points.

A group built on such resilience makes for a dangerous contender if the hype is to be believed, and with the Magpies earning a 2022 finals berth, hopes will be high for players and fans alike in September.

What Round 23 Means for Collingwood

The equation for the Magpies is pretty simple in Round 23 – beat Carlton at the MCG and they will get a top-four finish.

Of course, in reality, it will be a difficult fixture to navigate. As things stand, Stats Insider's predictive analytics model gives the Magpies a 51.2% chance of finishing in the top four, indicating a slight advantage to the team in black and white in Sunday's blockbuster game.

In terms of style of play, they don't get much more contrasting than the two bitter rivals.

Carlton ranks first for average disposals (384.8) and sixth for marks (97) per game in 2022. By having possession of the ball far more often than their opponents, the Blues hope to control proceedings by dictating tempo.

It's a methodical, slow style but predictable when Carlton wants to get it moving – Adam Saad tends to run and carry the ball with speed and the Blues' numbers push forward when it's time to get going.

In contrast, Collingwood ranks 13th for disposals (352.9) and 17th for marks (81.9) per game. The Magpies are a bottom-five clearance team in the AFL and instead play a manic style of footy akin to Richmond at its peak.

The Magpies are also ranked third in tackles per game (61.7) and fourth in tackles inside 50 (11.1).

Consider the fact that both teams average the same number of inside 50s per game and it becomes clearer that it is Collingwood's unpredictable, direct nature against Carlton's desire to control and use its superior marking targets.

A win gives the Magpies a guaranteed double chance in the finals. A loss means Collingwood would face a huge fight to not be eliminated immediately.

How Does Week One of the 2022 AFL Finals Play Out for Collingwood?

As it stands, Stats Insider's AFL model predicts there is an 80.6% chance that Collingwood will face Geelong, Richmond or Carlton in the first week of the 2022 AFL finals, with Melbourne and Brisbane representing more unlikely scenarios.

Given the third-placed Demons and fourth-placed Lions face each other on Friday night, we will know which team will slide down the ladder into an elimination final spot if the Magpies win.

The most likely scenario is that Collingwood beats Carlton and faces Geelong, given the fact Sydney and Fremantle play far lesser opposition in St Kilda and GWS respectively in the last round of the home-and-away season.

When considering the opposition, the Magpies are almost certain to face an uphill battle in the first week of finals.

Perhaps they should have beaten Geelong in Round 3 and the footy world should have seen the early signs of Collingwood's legitimacy early in the season. With the Magpies leading by five goals at three-quarter time, the Cats ended up running all over the top of a young team who kicked inaccurately.

A win in that game would have had the two teams equal on points entering the final round.

The issue for Collingwood is that Geelong were testing an attacking game style early in the season. With defensive credentials established, Chris Scott opted to change the way his team played in order to combine two methods in the back half of the season.

Collingwood had 26 scoring shots against Geelong that evening. The Cats have not conceded that many since then and in their own 12-game winning streak, they have conceded 17 scoring shots per game and concede the fewest inside 50s in the AFL by far.

Yet an elimination final against the Tigers, whose style coach Craig McRae has modelled Collingwood's on, is not any easier.

While the Tigers have a leakier defence, they have increased the pressure higher up the ground since the bye and have become a team that deprives the opposition many inside 50s.

What made Collingwood so effective during their extraordinary unbeaten run was applying pressure and winning it back.

Largely though, it was a counter-attacking style that aimed to absorb. When Sydney ramped the pressure up last week, Collingwood couldn't handle it. A team that has conceded the second-fewest tackles inside 50, the Magpies were under siege in defence and it caused plenty of turnovers.

Well, the Tigers concede the fewest tackles inside 50s themselves and attract the second-fewest tackles. They are a team that doesn't hold the ball for very long and gets rid of it long and directly, immediately, making them somewhat impervious to tackling pressure.

Between these two teams, the Magpies face a tough task.

Collingwood's 2022 Premiership Predictions

Stats Insider model's gives Collingwood a 15.4% chance of making the 2022 AFL grand final, and a 6.4% chance of winning the premiership.

Obviously, the aim of the game is to hang on as long as possible when September comes around and, despite it being the most difficult challenge, beating Carlton in the final round and setting up a qualifying final clash against the Cats would be the best-case scenario for the Magpies.

Otherwise, orchestrating back-to-back games against Carlton is more favourable than a contest with Richmond, given the pressure game tends to affect the Blues more than the Tigers.

Regardless though, there has been incredible self-belief and buy-in from a young playing group that has given Collingwood an incredible opportunity for finals experience in 2022.

Perhaps they have outperformed their final ladder position but in taking some big scalps along the way, the Magpies truly believe they can beat any team on any given way.

In the off-chance they don't face one of the three aforementioned teams, the Magpies nearly caused an upset over Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 5, while they own an extraordinary record over reigning premiers Melbourne, including two wins this season.

Any success in September is an uphill battle for Collingwood's playing group, but the Magpies have repeatedly proven everyone wrong throughout 2022.

(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)