Something Or Nothing: Is Melbourne's Attack Premiership Worthy?

Last updated: May 13, 2021, 5:52AM | Published: May 13, 2021, 5:30AM

No one’s here to pour acid on Melbourne’s incredible 8-0 start to the season.

Indeed this is a safe space, with the Stats Insider futures model assessing the club as second favourite for the premiership, a number derived in large part by the Demons so far smashing through every obstacle placed before them.

Through the season’s first two months, Melbourne has knocked off both of last year’s Grand Finalists, flexed its midfield muscle to the extent it has 3 of the league’s top-ten Brownlow favourites, while it’s also paraded an utterly menacing defence that’s conceded 18 scoring shots less than the league’s next best (Brisbane).

Yet for all their demonic ways, what’s so far been absent is a great attack, at least relative to this year’s dense array of contenders, as well as in relation to previous outfits who’ve blitzed their way through the early portion of their fixture.

In fact, of the last 12 teams since 2000 to start 8-0, Melbourne’s attack can be considered the most tepid, cobbling together just 67 points in its last start victory over Sydney, while averaging just 89.2 ppg on the season.

With that said, you’ll note that 10 of those previous 11 teams progressed to at least a Preliminary Final off the back of their 8-0 start, while 3 were ultimately crowned premiers. So while the demons attack mightn’t be excellent just yet, the historical company they keep certainly is.

And anyway, does it even matter that Melbourne’s offence isn’t exactly sending a shiver up the spine of opponents?

Well, unfortunately, it kind of does.

Of the last 26 premiers, 22 have all bought along an offence that’s ranked at least top-5 in the league, with only Richmond of 2017 and 2019, the Bulldogs of 2016 and Sydney in 2005 good enough to buck the trend.

And currently, Melbourne’s points per game attack is ranked just 6th in the league, has mustered only 3 points more than Carlton, and scored just 21 points more than the league’s 9th best attack.

Whilst the Demons are generating the league’s most inside-50’s at 57.4 per game, they rank only 7th insofar as marks inside-50, and are producing a scoring shot on only 43.3% of those incursions which places them 9th in the league.

With all that said, these are still early days, and all is certainly not lost.

For starters, this is a relatively new offence that’s been installed and one that’s still incorporating new parts.

Meanwhile, Melbourne's attack has already been pitted against 5 of the league's 10 best defences, while it's an offence that’s already showing signs of serious progression.

Kysaiah Pickett is obviously breaking out in his second season, leading the club with 27 total scoring shots and leading the league with 18 tackles inside-50.

He’s been the fulcrum of an overlay maniacal Demon forward line that’s leading the league with 106 total tackles inside-50, with all of James Jordon, Charlie Spargo, Alex Neal-Bullen and Tom McDonald averaging more than a tackle inside-50 per game.

And it’s also a forward line that’s jam-packed with diversity.

For just the 2nd time in Max Gawn’s 11 season career, he’s averaging more than a scoring shot per game, which has been made possible by the rapid development of Luke Jackson who’s allowed his captain and 4-time All-Australian ruckman to venture forward when necessary.

As for Brownlow medal favourite Christian Petracca, not only is the brilliant demon averaging 28.9 touches per game, but his 68 total score involvements is the 3rd best number in the league.

There's a little bit of everything in this forward line, yet its true golden ticket to forward riches might lie it’s big off-season acquisition in Ben Brown who has the potential to elevate the team’s attack from middling to top-tier.

While the hirsute Tasmanian is just two games into his Melbourne career, he brings with him 7 seasons and nearly 300 goals worth of forward-craft wisdom, while it's his pin-point accuracy which the Demons will be most keen to harness.

Through 8 games, Melbourne's 51.7% overall accuracy places them just 6th among current top-8 company, with poor conversion distorting the picture of Melbourne's true output forward of centre, while at the same time undermining its potential.

As we saw with Brisbane last season, deplorable kicking for goal can spectacularly derail the best-laid plans, yet Brown's 5.1 start is incredibly encouraging, while the club will be only too happy to embrace his career 67.5% conversion rate.

Unlike other clubs who are needing to completely pull down and rebuild their forward line, all the ingredients are in place at Melbourne, as too is a glittering array of variation.

While no, the offense isn’t humming just yet, if it can find its voice, this thrilling 8-song EP has the potential to be developed into a masterpiece of an album over the next few months.

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James Rosewarne

James is a writer. He likes fiction and music. He is a stingray attack survivor. He lives in Wollongong.