What's Fuelling Hawthorn's Hot Start?

It’s fair to say that most people have been caught off-guard by Hawthorn’s fast start.

Predicted by many to be the eventual wooden spooners and thus, the league’s worst team, very few could have predicted the Hawks to have won both their opening games.

Even a match against North Melbourne to start the season was a genuine 50/50 against a fellow struggler, with the AFL community rather bullish on the reigning ‘spooners.

Sam Mitchell has taken over and is the heir apparent to the throne of the AFL’s best coach and the start to his coaching career has been pretty spectacular.

Hawthorn’s identity under Mitchell is still a little bit of a work in progress, but the culture and belief in the group has certainly been revitalised.

The 39-year-old’s bond with his players is already evident and his confidence in selecting young players and giving them responsibility other senior coaches may be afraid to give, already gives him an edge.

Against North Melbourne, the statistical ascendancy in certain areas matched what we think the Hawks will grow to be.

It’s an uncontested, clean style of football.

If the opposition are blocking space centrally, as the Kangaroos did on occasion, the Hawks will be patient and have the users in the defensive half to commit to meaningful ball retention.

There’s also a reliance on strong aerial work in defence, with intercept marking a fantastic strength of this group from, the talls to the smalls.

Punters- At TopSport Hawthorn are paying $3.25 to play finals in 2022, which could represent strong value considering the Stats Insider futures model has assessed that as a 54.9% probability. 

They operated with a disposal efficiency 5% better than North Melbourne and, despite losing the inside 50 count by 4, showcased an excellent efficiency rating in scoring from their entries, largely thanks to their 14 marks inside 50 and 17 contested marks.

Changkuoth Jiath was the day’s star finishing with 24 disposals at 83.3% efficiency, 9 intercepts and 3 intercept marks, but the likes of James Sicily, Jack Scrimshaw and even Sam Frost were all ranked highly for intercepts and had high disposal accounts with strong efficiencies.

The Hawks averaged 7.49 disposals per inside 50 but were extremely adaptable and the style in which they could control possession to manipulate North Melbourne was reminiscent of the 2018 West Coast Eagles, who were the masters of such a style and were largely influenced by Mitchell himself.

The tackling game was strong, finishing with 62 tackles and an impressive 14 tackles inside 50, with Dylan Moore proving why he is rated elite as a small forward, ending the game with 19 disposals, 10 marks, 4 tackles inside 50, 8 score involvements and a goal.

Hawthorn was absolutely the better team in Round 1, but that’s only part of why the excitement around the club feels a lot more reasonable.

It wasn’t necessarily the unexpected result, nor the fact it was an away win against modern history’s perennial home-and-away bully, that cemented suspicions that the Hawks are on the right path.

The 64-point margin was incredible, but it wasn’t even that.

Rather, it was the way in which Hawthorn obliterated Port Adelaide on the counter that was so emphatically destructive that proved that there’s a level of sustainability to this particular style of ball retention, with the aerial work of the defenders such an asset.

Hawthorn averaged 7.44 disposals per inside 50, not all that different to Round 1. It was still an uncontested style of football in the same ilk as the first match, but Port Adelaide was so statistically dominant across the board, that it felt as though the Hawks were counter-attacking on every play.

On the night, the Hawks were -74 in disposals, -12 in inside 50s, -24 in clearances and -19 in tackles. Port had 3 players with 36+ disposals while the Hawks had just Tom Mitchell finish with over 22 disposals.

Even the disposal efficiency proved to be far less than the Power’s, yet Hawthorn was rarely wasteful.

There were 10 intercept marks between Denver Grainger-Barras, Sicily and Scrimshaw and while the tackling numbers weren’t outstanding, the defensive half pressure act numbers showed as a team committed to the buy-in – working hard in both directions to ultimately push the opposition to their limits.

James Worpel (19), Blake Hardwick (13) and Harry Morrison (13) were leaders in the pressure acts in the defensive half, while typically uncontested flankers Scrimshaw and Jiath posted 10 each.

The Power pounded the ball inside 50 and the defensive unit of the Hawks simply beat the opposition’s forwards in the air and on the ground. When it was time to rebound and catapult in a counter-attacking fashion, Hardwick, Scrimshaw and Sicily were turned the Power off, notching 595+ metres gained each.

There was no issue hitting up targets inside 50 as was the case against North Melbourne – there were multiple goal assists for Jaeger O’Meara, Jack Gunston and Conor Nash.

Chad Wingard’s early injury allowed for more exposure to Josh Ward (20 disposals, 4 clearances) and Connor Macdonald (18 disposals, 1 goals, 413 metres gained) and Mitch Lewis’ apparent breakout season kicked off with 5 goals, backed up by his veteran teammates Jack Gunston and Luke Breust, combining for 6 goals.

It’s early in the season and there are a lot of young players at the Hawks, so to suggest this is a team trending towards a significant level of success this season is almost unnecessary.

Yet against a team seemingly at their level and another team that were one of the better defensive units of the last few seasons, the ball control and manipulative possessions the Hawks committed to was able to set up easier, more efficient forward entries,

There has been strong evidence of a great ability to flick the proverbial switch, with eye-catchingly quick ball movement to outrun the opposition towards goal and that, ultimately, is the best part of what Hawthorn has so far shown.

In one game, they had more of the ball and controlled the game better. In the other, they had to defend a lot harder and were stronger in the air and on the ground. This application to the defensive side of the game allowed Hawthorn to play their desired offensive game, despite having far less time in possession.

The Hawks’ next five opponents are Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong, Sydney and Melbourne. On paper, it’s a difficult run and if they lose most of these matches, fans will inevitably begin to cool off on this team.

Make no mistake though, these first two weeks of the season have already proven the Hawks are on the right track and are ready to have their development fast-tracked with the level of commitment across the board.

Hawthorn has won its first two games of 2022 and regardless of how the next few games pan out, fans should be genuinely excited about what’s to come.

Did you enjoy this article? Join our free mailing list to get the best content delivered straight to your inbox, or join the conversation by leaving a comment below or on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.