What does the contemporary footballing landscape mean to you? If you ask a Carlton fan, they might volunteer ‘journey.’ Ask a Richmond fan, and they might say ‘dynasty.’ Ask a Melbourne fan and they might say ‘finally.’ 

If you ask a fan of the Brisbane Lions, they’ll probably say ‘cruel.’ 

And footy has been a little cruel to the Lions in recent times with just a single finals win to show for three-straight top-4 finishers. 

Cam Rayner tearing a hamstring was cruel. As too was Eric Hipwood suffering the same fate on the heel of finals last season. 

Eliminated in straight sets last September was cruel, and so was their Preliminary final beatdown against Geelong the year prior when a Gabba Grand Final was there for the taking. 

Yet for all that heartbreak and agony there’s perhaps a good dose of ecstasy just lurking around the corner. 

After years of proving their credentials in the home and away season, 2022 will be all about translating that form into September and into a potential premiership. 

Here’s why the Lions are perfectly positioned to bring the flag back to Queensland for the first time in 18 years. 

Punters- At TopSport, the Lions are paying $6 to haul in what'd be a first Minor Premiership in club history. 

A Squad in its prime

The Lions don’t need any more reminding about the pain of losing finals. They’ve lost 6 of the last 7 they’ve contested and in all manner of ways. 

They’ll be hoping their harrowing experiences are character builders, the likes of which can be added to a list that’s full of quality, that’s in its prime and ought to be zeroed it on premiership glory. 

The Lions have just three players over the age of 30 and have 7 teenagers on their list. The remainder of their squad are mostly players in that 23-28 age bracket and which is where 4 of their 6 All-Australians reside. 

Their list profile is so similar to Melbourne’s of last year. The demons ranked 9th in the competition in 2021 with their average squad member having 65 games under their belt. Heading into season 2022 the average Lion has played 67.8 games which also ranks 9th in the league.

Punters- At TopSport the Lions are paying $3.6 to make their first Grand Final since 2005.

A working tactic

The Lions have a game-style that works perfectly for them and which has allowed them to plough through the regular season and blow inferior opposition away.  

Since joining the club from Hawthorn at the end of 2016, Chris Fagan has installed so many of the components that made the Hawks so rampant and which has been largely based on a no-nonsense approach that aims to be brutal in the clinches and wants to get the ball into their forward 50 with speed. 

Last year their 56.5 inside-50’s per game led the league and was enabled by a deep midfield that ranked first in the AFL with a 41.4% contested possession rate.

This set up at attack that led the league from a points per game perspective and which ranked #1 for both goals and scoring shots per inside-50 entry. 

Joe Daniher returned to his best with his move north, while Charlie Cameron operated as one of the league’s most dangerous small forwards amassing 55 goals on the season including 8 over his two finals. 

When Brisbane’s preferred game-style was working last season they were just about unbeatable and were 11-1 in matches when they won the contested possession count.

Unfortunately for the Lions a pronounced Plan B was lacking when the going got tough, with both Melbourne and the Bulldogs smashing them in contested ball over their two finals. 

If Brisbane are to remedy their September woes they'll have to find alternative game-styles even if their Plan A has proved so rampant. 

Punters- At TopSport the Lions are 3rd favourites for the 2022 premiership and are currently paying $7.50 

What are the projections saying?

According to the Stats Insider futures model the Lions are the league’s second most likely team to win the 2022 premiership outside of Melbourne. 

They're currently a 12.7% chance of winning the flag and have been assessed as a 43.9% chance of securing a 4th straight top4 finish in 2022- a feat the club has accomplished just once and during a period they secured a hat-trick of premierships. 

Clearly, this Lions squad is rich in talent, primed for a deep run and might be just a couple of adjustments away from glory.

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