After winning the BBL|08 title, the Melbourne Renegades have only won 7 out of 28 games, collecting two wooden spoons across the past two seasons making for a rather stunning fall from grace.

But there's renewed hope for the team from the red half of Melbourne this season, which for them kicks off tonight against the Adelaide Strikers at Marvel Stadium.

Coach Michael Klinger has been replaced by experienced former Australia bowling coach David Saker, while there's new faces such as Nic Maddinson, Reece Topley, Unmukt Chand and Zahir Khan, plus James Pattinson is fully available all summer after retiring from Test cricket. 

However, in the main, it is a fairly similar squad to last season, with a large crop of young Victorian talent, the likes of whom they’re hoping can take the next step with players such as Will Sutherland, Mackenzie Harvey, Jake Fraser-McGurk and Zak Evans hoping to push this squad back into contention. 

While personnel changes and linear development are great in theory it's important to identify the problem that needs fixing at the Gades if those dreams of a final return are to become a reality.

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Slip Sliding Away 

From a basic statistical point of view, the Renegades issues in BBL|10 were obvious, finishing with both the worst batting run rate and worst bowling run rate in the league.

Table 1. BBL10 batting and bowling run rates

Scrutinising the numbers closely, they were way behind the rest with the bat in BBL|10. Aaron Finch's form was dire amassing just 179 runs at average of 13.76 which are the kind of numbers which should improve.

The new additions Maddinson and Chand won't play on Tuesday, with the former on Australia A duty and the latter not selected, due to the BBL's limit on three imports per game. Shaun Marsh is out injured until Christmas while Finch is in doubt with a knee issue, so on the batting front they're relying on a similar line-up to find improvement.

So where will that improvement come from? We've crunched the numbers on when they scored runs and lost wickets throughout each match, splitting the batting innings into four quarters to pinpoint some trends, strengths and weaknesses.

Table 2. Renegades BBL10 runs/wickets per batting overs in matches

From a batting point of view you'd typically see a high spike in the power play (first four overs) and towards the back-end of the innings (the death overs), but that wasn’t the case with the Gades last season. 

In fact, aside from a typical flurry of wickets falling late in their batting innings, their numbers are fairly steady. The runs scored were relatively similar throughout the innings and never above eight runs per over (with total runs in the 16-20 over category skewed by being bowled out early six times).

On average they were approximately 2-35 after five overs which is never a good foundation. That opening partnership will be critical in BBL|11, minimising the loss of early wickets and setting a platform. That will look different with Marsh out and Finch potentially missing, offering an opportunity to Harvey, Sam Harper or possibly newcomer James Seymour.

Also the Gades need to find some big-hitting capacity to create some spikes in their run scoring. Mohammad Nabi has that in him but he's failed to deliver with any consistency. Dan Christian offered some of power-hitting down the order in their triumphant BBL|08 campaign, but he’s of course now playing for the hat-trick hunting Sixers, so it’s unclear just who’ll fill that void.

Table 3. Renegades BBL10 runs/wickets per bowling overs in matches

From a bowling point of view, they struggled to take wickets in the power play, nor were they able to generate many wickets at the back end. English left-armer Topley has been added to strengthen up this department, while Kane Richardson and Josh Lalor have traditionally been specialists in those overs.

James Pattinson also offers quality and aggression to their pace options, and along with Topley, will likely operate during the power play with a view to upping the wickets and cutting the runs. That's an obvious potential area of improvement for the Gades.

Zahir Khan adds mystery to their attack, along with Cameron Boyce who missed all of last season. Spin is typically used after the opening phase of overs, ideally producing a tight economy rate to put pressure on the batsmen with the field out and in BBL|10 that's where they had the best success, from overs 6-10. Unfortunately the Gades' leading wicket-taker last season, Peter Hatzoglou, has left for the Scorchers and he often bowled during this period, so Zahir or Boyce will need to fill the breach. 

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Cutting To The Chase

Something very interesting to think about with the Gades in the context of their most recent wooden-spoon winning season was their volatility when batting second. 

At the recent T20 World Cup, chasing sides dominated the event, albeit in completely different conditions in UAE, yet the Gades continually struggled in this realm last season. They were bowled out on 5 occasions when they were chasing targets while all 4 of their wins last season came when they lost the toss. If they are to make ground this season and put their two seasons fo hell behind them, they’ll need to come to terms with the art of chasing totals.

Some of that is ensuring the total you're chasing doesn’t feel insurmountable, thus reducing the necessary risks. The targets in their unsuccessful chases were 206, 210, 186, 172 and 174. Their three successful chases were for 131, 159 and 178 (the latter coming late in the season against the Strikers in an encouraging sign). Obviously, the lower the target, the more probable it is to chase.

Beyond the bowling, a large chunk of responsibility of the chase comes down to the batting line-up. And that's a largely unchanged batting line-up looking for organic and internal growth. 

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Renegade Redemption?

Ultimately, the Gades will be looking for their senior players at the top of the order, such as Finch, to get back to laying a foundation for their innings which was a major problem last season. Few sides win when they lose 2-3 wickets inside the opening five overs. Someone like Nabi can offer a mid-innings spike of runs or perhaps a breakout player such as Fraser-McGurk.

The big tick is their bowling attack does appear much better and appears to be packing a lot more variety and quality. If Pattinson and Topley can take early wickets and put the opposition under some sort of pressure then they'll give themselves a much better chance of chasing down the kind of targets than often alluded them last season. Incredibly, they averaged less than one wicket taken per match during the first five overs last season. 

According to the Stats Insider futures model the Renegades are just a 43.6% chance of playing finals this season, the model's least enthusiastic projection, yet there's enough reasons why they can return as a competition force.

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