Why Kentucky Will Emerge From The Madness With Another NCAA Title

Before you get the impression that Kentucky is a clear or heavy favourite to win the 2022 NCAA Tournament, let me stop you right there: No, the Cats aren’t a runaway favourite by any stretch. 

The bookies have Kentucky at around the $8-$9 mark, an estimation the Stats Insider futures model supports, currently assessing them as a 7.3% chance of pulling down the nets in New Orleans. 

This NCAA Tournament is likely to be different from 2021 in which Gonzaga and Baylor were the obvious co-favourites and went on to meet in the championship game.

This year however, we have no such goliaths. 

This year, parity and chaos are likely to emerge in March Madness. 

RELATED: Check out all of our NCAA futures projections

A dozen teams could realistically win it all, and the top seeds are not overwhelming giants.

Every team has a significant flaw which could be exploited by the right matchup or an in-form opponent. Don’t get the idea that any team is miles above the rest. 

Now that we’ve established the parameters and context for discussion, here’s why the Kentucky Wildcats will emerge from this bracket of mystery and magic and claim a 9th NCAA basketball championship. 

If you have followed Kentucky through the whole season, you know that in February, the Wildcats were without TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler for a few games. Washington and Wheeler make the Wildcats cohesive at both ends of the floor. They play strong defence and facilitate the offence. Everything runs more smoothly for this team when Washington and Wheeler are on the floor.  

In February, the Wildcats played Alabama and LSU without them, and fell behind by double-digit margins in the first half, yet managed to rally and win both games.  

Precisely because of Kentucky’s injuries, the bench has had to play significant minutes at various points in the season. Calipari’s ability to cultivate his bench and develop his players gives Kentucky more depth – and higher-quality depth – than the vast majority of teams in this NCAA Tournament. 

Oscar Tshiebwe is a 2022 National Player of the Year favourite, and the Washington-Wheeler combination certainly makes Kentucky a lot more cohesive, but the best reason Kentucky is built to win the championship is that Kentucky is more than two or three guys. Seven players make significant contributions, and while the Wildcats want their best players on the floor, they are better positioned than most teams to withstand a five- or seven-minute stretch in which they don’t have their best five-man group on the court. That’s a notable point of differentiation from the rest of the field of 68 teams. 

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What is also worth noting about this Kentucky team is that Iowa transfer C.J. Fredrick got hurt – knocked out for the season – before the campaign was able to take off. To be sure, Kentucky can go through bad shooting days (any team can), and it’s true that the Cats shot the 3-pointer horribly in their SEC Tournament semifinal loss to Tennessee over the weekend. We’re not saying Kentucky is free of flaws; every team in this tournament has them. Yet, even with the limitations posed by the Fredrick injury, Kentucky earned a No. 2 seed in this tournament. That shows how good the remaining (active) roster is. With Fredrick, there’s little doubt this would have been a No. 1 seed and a noticeably better team than it already is. 

Kentucky’s ceiling was lowered by the Fredrick injury, and yet Big Blue’s potential remains considerable as the NCAA Tournament starts. 

Let’s also look at Kentucky’s East Region bracket and the possible path to the national championship game. The Wildcats could face third-seeded Purdue in the Sweet 16. Purdue hasn’t been to the Final Four since 1980. The Boilermakers have been an annual underachiever in March, with a few rare exceptions such as 2019. Purdue does not play great defense. Kentucky should be able to dominate that matchup if it happens. 

In the Elite Eight, should Kentucky get there, top-seeded Baylor might be waiting. The Bears are defending national champions, but they lack the star power of last year’s team. They also lack health. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, a worker-bee forward who made this team much more cohesive at both ends of the floor, is out for the season with an injury. Baylor looked like a physically and mentally weary team when it lost in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals against Oklahoma. Even if Kentucky doesn’t shoot well against Baylor’s tenacious defense, Tshiebwe’s rebounding and Big Blue’s defence can lift UK to the Final Four. 

If Kentucky makes the Final Four, Gonzaga could be the national semifinal opponent. Gonzaga was pushed around by Saint Mary’s in a loss to the Gaels on Feb. 26. Kentucky has the blue-collar toughness to create a street fight and a physical style of play which can similarly unsettle Gonzaga and knock the Bulldogs out of their rhythm. Kentucky would pose a number of matchup problems for Gonzaga. 

In the national championship game, Kentucky could play any of several high-profile opponents. Arizona will be a popular pick to make the title game, as will Kansas and Villanova. Kentucky’s combination of Tshiebwe in the paint and Washington and Wheeler on the perimeter will give UK a level of inside-outside balance that will be hard for any opponent to match. 

Kentucky has the ingredients – chiefly the ability to win many different kinds of games (slow, fast, high-scoring, low-scoring) – which translate into maximum March success, and minimal madness. 

Everyone else will be mad when March is over, but not Kentucky.

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