Like Manchester United and Chelsea before it, since letting go of their greatest ever manager, Arsenal have looked a shell of their former self. 

Constant disappointment and underachievement have seen numerous managers sacked as well as repeated squad overhauls. 

However, in recent times, the tide has slowly turned in North London. 

Mikel Arteta has this young side playing exciting football and already has an F.A Cup trophy to his resume. The Stats Insider futures model is currently assessing them as a 37% chance of finishing in the top 4 (the strongest projection outside the top 3) and with games in hand on the likes of Manchester United and West Ham, the season couldn't have gone any better. 

For some though, Arsenal remain an enigma, frustrating their fans while still appearing a long way off genuine title contention. 

Today we’ll take a dive into just where this icon of English football truly sits. 

RELATED: 5 Young Strikers Set To Rule The Footballing World

Expectations vs Reality

To arrive at a clear conclusion about whether Arsenal has performed to expectations this season one must look at where they were expected to finish at the start of the season, as well as their league standings last season. This is a barometer that they needed to meet to indicate clear improvement. 

What were the pre-season expectations for Arsenal? Well, considering the arbitrary nature of that statement, it would need to be a broad spectrum. Last season, after a very turbulent period during the middle of the season, the Gunners finished in a very respectable 8th place, missing out on European football by a solitary point. 

During the off-season they brought in Nuno Tavares, Ben White, Aaron Ramsdale, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Albert Sambi-Lokonga as well as making Martin Ødegaard’s loan a permanent deal. Not only are these key signings to address major areas of concern in the team but they also added much-needed youth, something this side has sorely lacked for some time.

These signings, coupled with the added experience of their current squad gaining continuity within Arteta’s system made the expectations for this season much higher than they were 12 months ago. Realistically, a top 6 finish would be deemed a success for the Gunners in their relative infancy with this squad, coupled with their relatively inexperienced coach. 

That was at the start of the season. Now, just after the halfway mark of the campaign let’s look at where they compare to those pre-season predictions.

As mentioned, Arsenal sits 4 points outside the top 4 with three games in hand. Whilst on the surface this seems like an incredible improvement on last season, this does need to be understood within the context of the competition at large. Considering the other sides in the EPL have underperformed massively this season the Gunners may be a little bit disappointed they haven't maximised their position and already solidified a top-4 spot. 

Their recent signings, particularly White, Ramsdale and Tomiyasu have hit the ground running, instantly improving the side and making them a much better team. Meanwhile their younger players like Tavares and Lokonga look promising, even if their minutes have been limited.  

Taking these factors into consideration, it'd be fair to suggest that Arsenal have over-performed (to an extent) based on pre-season expectations.

RELATED: What Can We Expect From Frank Lampard’s Everton?

Game-to-game

Another factor to determine whether a side is over or underperforming in a particular season is by looking at their stats on average throughout the season. This is to determine whether they are deserving of the points they are banking. Teams like Brighton, especially in the last couple of seasons, have fallen victims to horrendously underperforming based on their game-to-game stats. 

Looking at expected points, the Gunners have 2.50 fewer expected points than they have actually points. This suggests that they are over-performing by just under one win. With their actual points sitting at 39 and their expected points sitting at 36.5, this indicates not a lot of difference and that the team as deserved what it's got. This is also mimicked in their league positions, as both the actual table and the expected points table has them sitting in 6th position. 

Dissecting their actual results they were given a murders row to start the season, something that didn't help their case. Playing Brentford away in the first match of the season made for a perfect storm with Brentford full of energy, playing their first-ever match in the topflight and against a depleted Arsenal side.

They then took on the champions of England, and then the champions of Europe. Despite being rock bottom of the league after three games and not scoring a goal, Arsenal picked themselves up and went on to win the next three league games in a row, including a win in the North-London Derby. 

From Arsenal's 7 losses this season, only 2 of them have come against sides that are below them on the table. This shows that they are often beating the sides that they are expected to conquer which is one indication that a team is heading in the right direction and performing at its level for a consistent time.

With an easier fixture at the start of the season, and some more luck with injuries and issues with COVID-19, this Arsenal side might have already entrenched themselves in the top 4. It’s indeed the fine margins that can determine whether a side is considered to have a good season or a great one. 

RELATED: Could A Composite Bottom-17 Team Topple The EPL's Elite?

Over Or Under

Overall, it would be unfair to categorise Arsenal's season as being either over or underperforming. 

Considering the amount of nuance and context that's needed to explain it a fair assessment would be that they are performing to expectations. Not being remarkably good nor extremely underwhelming either. 

And really, Arsenal fans should take great solace in that considering how much drama this club has endured in recent years and taking into account how young both the side and manager is. To have hit their targets with relative ease has made for genuine progress.

We will however start to see just what this club is made of over the coming weeks as the finish line draws near and the race to secure that top 4 spot intensifies. 

Did you enjoy this article? Join our free mailing list to get the best content delivered straight to your inbox, or join the conversation by leaving a comment below or on the Stats Insider Twitter or Facebook page.