Betting Ahead: Spying The Early Top-4 NRL Value

Feb 17, 2022, 1:54AM

We don't need too much reminding about how far ahead the top three teams in the NRL were last season.

The Melbourne Storm (44 pts), Penrith Panthers (44 pts) and South Sydney Rabbitohs (42 pts) left the rest of the competition for dust ahead of what was still a mostly-dominant Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (34 pts) side in 4th.

However, there is a little bit more uncertainty at the top this year. Penrith have two big seasons to play off, Melbourne lost a couple of key contributors, and South Sydney will be without their halfback of the last decade. It's not all plain sailing this year which presents some opportunities to spy some value before it all kicks off.

Sydney Roosters - $1.80

It's hardly a huge call to kick things off but the Sydney Roosters look long across most markets. This is a side that finished 5th last season despite losing a player to long term injuries every other week.

Boyd Cordner, Jake Friend and Luke Keary are big enough losses to derail any club. Add Lindsay Collins, Brett Morris, Billy Smith, Joseph Manu late in the season and the regular unavailability of Victor Radley, and it's incredible that the Roosters played finals footy let alone won a game.

Healthy for the most part heading into Round 1, the Roosters are preparing to build on an attack that scored 25.4 points per game (5th) while conceding only 21.3 per game (6th) last season. The cohesion developed through some injury luck will go a long way to improving the defence further, too.

With Keary back and Sam Walker more experienced, James Tedesco is primed for a huge season. He took on a lot more responsibility as a distributor in 2021. In spots he would have typically left for Keary and Cooper Cronk in recent years, Tedesco jumped in to get his hands on the ball, passing players into positions on the field to launch an attack from. Still effective in that role, a return to his role wider on the field should only add to the Roosters overall attack.

Trent Robinson has proven himself to be one of the best coaches in the game. Last year only added to his reputation. The Roosters won't spend more than three or four rounds outside the top four if they can stay healthy.

Parramatta Eels - $3.75

While the Parramatta Eels haven't been able to get past the second week of the NRL Finals, they've played like a Top 4 team for most of the last two regular seasons.

In 2020 Parramatta spent eight weeks at the top of the ladder and 19 of the 20 inside the top four.

In 2021, the blue and gold spent 18 of the 25 rounds sitting in the top quarter of the ladder before fading to finish 6th. Injuries derailed what was a promising season with Reed Mahoney a devastating loss at dummy half - one they couldn't cope with.

Despite not being too high on them as premiership contenders right now, it's safe to assume they will be tough to handle throughout the regular season. They're a very good football side at the very worst. With players fit and firing and a handful departing at the end of the season, there is a feeling that this is Parramatta's best chance at a premiership for the foreseeable future.

They have the quality in key playmaking positions. Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson have developed a formidable partnership while the assumption is that Dylan Brown will bounce back from a disappointing season. Importantly, they have cohesion across the park. As is the case with most premiership-winning teams, they also have key contributors like Isaiah Papali'i playing above their current salary.

For better or worse, Brad Arthur and the Eels know how to pile up wins in the regular season. They have the sort of draw that can see them plant themselves in the top four early on too.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks - $5

Yes, new coaches have only added 1.09 wins in their first season in charge across the last 20 years.

And yes, one extra win would have only seen the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks sneak into the Top 8 before being thrashed in Week 1 or 2 of the finals last season.

Still, there is reason to be relatively optimistic about a top-four finish in 2022.

The Sharks pack is deep. In a season that is likely to be disrupted by positive tests and isolation periods, the Sharks are better prepared than most. Whatever the rules have been at the time, winning the middle has always been crucial to collecting the two competition points and the Sharks will be in that battle every week.

Three of Braden Hamlin-Uele, Andrew Fifita, Siosifa Talakai, Royce Hunt and Aiden Tolman are likely to miss the 17 when healthy. They've got an absolute monster in Franklin Pele ready and waiting in the wings as well.

Add the attacking potential of Nicho Hynes, Will Kennedy, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Blayke Brailey, Jesse Ramien, Connor Tracey, Matt Moylan and Cameron McInnes, and you've got a side that is sure to improve on their 21.7 points per game last season.

There is always a team or two that most tip to make the Top 8 that fall short. Likewise, there is a surprise packet that climbs up the ladder every season. A lot needs to fall into place for the Sharks to jump from 9th to 4th, but there is a lot to like about this squad.

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Jason Oliver

As far as Jason is concerned, there is no better time of year than March through June. An overlap of the NBA and NRL seasons offer up daily opportunities to find an edge and fund the ever-increasing number of sports streaming services he subscribes to. If there's an underdog worth taking in either code, he'll be on it.