Looking at Round 25 of the 2022 NRL Season

Finals football is almost here, but first, two key spots on the NRL ladder need to be decided via Round 25 NRL action.

Here, we look at the odds of all four teams jostling for final positions in the top eight on the ladder.

NRL 2022 - Top Four Race

The race for the last place in the top four is down to two teams. Coincidently, the Melbourne Storm and Parramatta Eels go head-to-head on Thursday night to determine who will be blessed with the second chance in September.

Parramatta Eels

Make the top four: 45.1%

The Parramatta Eels have completed a typical Parramatta Eels regular season to date, looking like one of the best teams in the NRL at times. 

When they're hitting the edges, creating numbers down the short side and playing on the back of their competition-high 13.2 offloads per game, the Eels are capable of beating anybody. We've seen as much with their wins over the Panthers and Storm this year.

However, for reasons unknown, there are times the Eels barely look eight quality. They look for the easy way around the opposition, fail to gain an advantage in the middle despite often running with the superior pack, and an inconsistent defence leaks points all too easily. 

We're going to need to see the 'good Eels' on Thursday night if they're to take hold of fourth on the NRL ladder. 

While the Storm are in form themselves, they are there to be beaten in the middle of the field. The likes of Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Ryan Matterson and Junior Paulo can lay the platform for Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses to attack Storm defensive edges that have left a lot to be desired this season. 

The Eels have played like a four team at times this year and it's now rather fitting that they need to produce that sort of form in a single game to secure their spot and a second chance in September.

Melbourne Storm

Make the top four: 54%

It looked as though the Melbourne Storm might slip down the ladder after losing four on the bounce to sit at fifth after Round 19. 

Plenty were quick to hail the end of the Storm as we know it, with some even considering the possibility of them falling out of the top eight entirely. 

However, by backing up four losses with four wins, the Storm have put themselves in the box seat for what would be their eighth straight top four finish.

While they couldn't take care of the Roosters in Melbourne last week, it's clear that Craig Bellamy has his side on the right track.

Cameron Munster has slot seamlessly into the #1 jersey, putting himself into the conversation around the best fullback in the game in the process. That consistency in a key position has rubbed onto the rest of the team, with the Storm attack and defence looking more comfortable following the move.

Munster can pop up as he pleases with the ball. While the stats pages have him down for four tries and three try assists since making the move to the back in Round 19, he has been involved in a lot more positive attacking actions than the numbers suggest. 

Perhaps, more importantly, is his impact in defence. He's a rugby league genius and his organisation and timing from the back is arguably the best at the position. 

The Storm have still needed to work through a handful of teething issues though. Nick Meaney is still very much a stopgap option in the halves and there is room for Jahrome Hughes to take a more on-ball role in the search of a better balance. 

But with Munster at the back, cohesion developing on both sides of the ball and Bellamy building this team into finals football, they're deserving top four favourites heading into Round 25. 

Eels vs Storm is at CommBank Stadium on Thursday, September 1 at 7:50pm AEST.

Fighting For The NRL Finals

It wasn't meant to be this difficult for the Broncos and few in the capital saw the Raiders winning enough games to feature in finals football. But here we are, going right down to the last game of the last round to determine the eighth spot in September footy.

Brisbane Broncos

Make the top eight: 15%

The Brisbane Broncos sat at fourth on the ladder with 12 wins and six losses after Round 19. Kevin Walters had put together a quality side that had finally started to produce the sort of football they've been capable of for years.

However, it's looking more and more likely that Walters lucked into that side. He hasn't been able to select it since, with the Broncos having lost four of their last five games. As if the losses weren't bad enough, conceding 50 points in back-to-back weeks at Suncorp Stadium has wiped away their points differential advantage over the Raiders.

They now rely on beating the Dragons and for results to go their way.

In a sign of a struggling coach running out of ideas, Walters looks set to replace his rookie halfback in response to his side copping two hidings.

Tyson Gamble is a superior defender to Ezra Mam. The young half has been a target over the last fortnight with Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Isaiah Papali'i picking him out in the line. However, installing one better defender in the line doesn't solve the more pressing issue of their weakness with the ball in the middle. 

The Broncos rank dead last in tackles inside the opposition's 20-metre line. They need to create more opportunities to attack in good ball, because when they're there, few sides in the competition are more efficient.

Whoever Walters sends out onto the field this week, the message needs to be around keeping it tight in the middle, dominating the yardage game, and making regular entries into the opposition's 20. Adam Reynolds has proven all season that he can manufacture points when provided with the opportunity. 

If the pack can present Reynolds with a platform to attack from, they'll go to bed on Saturday night at eighth on the ladder hoping for the best on Sunday.

Dragons vs Broncos is at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium on Saturday, September 3 at 5:30pm AEST.

Canberra Raiders

Make the top eight: 85%

The Canberra Raiders don’t need to do a lot on Sunday afternoon. Simply beat the worst team in the competition and they will extend their season by at least a week. To most, that sounds like a relatively comfortable path to the finals. For the Raiders, however, it isn't so simple.

Famous for making life for themselves as difficult as possible, there is no certainty Canberra will complete the job on Sunday.

The Sea Eagles are grossly out of form and they didn't provide a lot of resistance in Round 24. While the Raiders piled on 48 points, they benefited from the sort of luck you get when playing a side that has checked out of the season already. 

Still, the Raiders can take plenty out of the game as they work towards Sunday afternoon and, we assume, another game in Week 1 of the NRL Finals.

RELATED: NRL 2022 Futures

The Green Machine ran for 2,262 metres in Round 24 - over 700 metres more than they have averaged in 2022. 

The back-five combined for a whopping 906 running metres between them while the Raiders pack all contributed with efforts over 100 metres. As has been the case all year, Joseph Tapine led the way with 191 running metres of his own.

With the platform set, Jamal Fogarty and Jack Wighton linked up in ways we've not always seen this year.

Notably, Fogarty found 74 metres on the ground in this one. 

He was always a willing runner of the ball before his arrival in Canberra though. The 28-year-old isn't regarded as particularly threatening or dangerous, but he averaged 90 metres per game with the Titans in 2020 and 75 metres per game in 2021. 

Coming back from injury and with perhaps too much focus on his role as the organiser of the side, Fogarty has averaged only 58 metres per game in 2022. While the total number looks impressive, it came on only five carries of the ball.

Fogarty's run numbers have dropped from 12 per game in 2020, to 10 per game in 2021 to nine per game in 2022. He showed this week how dangerous he can be when running the ball, though.

If the Raiders can continue their run of form in yardage and provide Fogarty and Wighton with room to carry the ball themselves, they shouldn't have a problem getting past the Tigers on Sunday afternoon.

They might even put up a fight the following week, too.

Tigers vs Raiders is at Leichhardt Oval on Sunday, September 4 at 4:05pm AEST.