It's prediction season in the NRL.

With only seven sleeps until Round 1, the Stats Insider Futures Model has simulated the NRL season 20,000 times to provide our projections.

There appears to be five teams in with a sniff of the Provan-Summons Trophy with a sixth threatening to join them by finals time. 

As usual, there is congestion around the bottom of the Top 8 with three teams looking the most likely to fill the remaining two spots. Although, there will be a few coaches with calculators out towards the end of the season, crunching numbers and figuring out what needs to happen to land a place in Week 1.

Somebody needs to finish last, and while the model has a clear favourite ahead of Round 1, four teams look set to engage in a wooden spoon battle.

Trying to predict what is going to happen in the NRL is fools gold. Still, we're going to take a look at how the 2022 season might play out with help from the Stats Insider Futures model.

RELATED: Betting Ahead- Mining The Top Try Scorer Market For Gold

The Big Five

We kicked off the 2021 season with a 'Big Four' which produced roughly as expected. We've been forced into extending the top tier of the competition for 2022, though.

The Melbourne Storm ripped through the regular season before suffering a shock loss in the Preliminary Final. They've lost a handful of key contributors but you'd be brave to suggest they won't find suitable replacements. With the core group intact and Craig Bellamy still in the coach's box, the Storm are favourites to win the premiership at 21%.

It took two bites at the cherry but the Penrith Panthers finally got it done in 2021 and are at 17.8% to do it all again in 2022. Like Melbourne, Penrith has lost a few players that contributed to their premiership success; Matt Burton's influence will be particularly difficult to replace. Going back-to-back in the NRL is incredibly hard and to make three Grand Finals takes a huge amount of commitment and focus. We saw how hard the Panthers had to work to get into a second-consecutive Grand Final last year. Making it three will be some effort.

The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles (14%) surprised everybody last year to force this into a 'Big Five' to start this season. Tom Trbojevic played out one of the best individual seasons in NRL history and dragged the Sea Eagles to 4th on the ladder. Their reliance on him created some issues in the finals. However, a relatively young group led by Trbojevic and an experienced halves pairing can expect to improve. 

Nobody could predict the number of injuries the Sydney Roosters would be forced to deal with but in typical Roosters fashion, they found a way to not only be competitive but remain towards the top of the ladder for much of last season. Fit and firing ahead of 2022, they're back in the hunt at 13% to win the premiership.

Despite going so close in 2021, the South Sydney Rabbitohs are on the fifth line to win the premiership heading into 2022 at 10.8%. They somewhat overachieved last year and the loss of Adam Reynolds is yet to be truly felt. Souths won't have too many problems against the lower teams in the competition throughout the year. It's against their fellow premiership contenders where Reynolds would have had a significant influence.

Punters- At TopSport, Melbourne Storm are $5 premiership favourites, closely followed by the Panthers who'll be on the prowl for back-to-back crowns. 

On An Island

Perhaps rather fittingly, the Canberra Raiders occupied this island at this point last season.

They failed to live up to expectations and finished up at 10th on the ladder, never really looking like a side that could compete with the top teams in the competition.

This year it's the Parramatta Eels who won't surprise many people whichever way they go.

Brad Arthur's side is threatening to take the leap and become a genuine part of the premiership conversation. 

"In 2020 Parramatta spent eight weeks at the top of the ladder and 19 of the 20 inside the top four. 

In 2021, the blue and gold spent 18 of the 25 rounds sitting in the top quarter of the ladder before fading to finish 6th." - Betting Ahead: Spying The Early Top-4 NRL Value

They've been there or thereabouts for the last three regular seasons. They've reached the semi-finals in four of the last five seasons, losing all four. Although, it felt as though they were one Reed Mahoney away from beating the Panthers and advancing to the Preliminary Final last year.

To see the Eels put it all together and challenge 'The Big 5' won't come as a shock. However, like the Raiders last year, nor would a dive down the ladder.

Has Arthur taken this group as far as he can?

Will his voice start to wear thin?

How does the playing group respond to the key players leaving at the end of the season?

Reaching Week 2 of the Finals in four of the last five seasons is a great achievement, but memories of the season they didn't - a 16th-placed finish in 2018 - still linger.

They're on an island by themselves according to the model and most fans around the league are on the fence. 

Punters- At TopSport, Canberra are paying $2.1 to play finals in 2022. They're paying $6 to earn a top4 berth. 

Getting Three Into Two

The above six teams are all expected to finish in the Top 8 relatively comfortably:

1. Storm - 92.1%
2. Panthers - 89.7%
3. Roosters - 83.5%
4. Sea Eagles - 83.3%
5. Rabbitohs - 79.6%
6. Eels - 68.8%

That leaves two spots left for Week 1 of the Finals and the model has circled three teams as most likely to fill them.

The Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks went close to sneaking into the finals in 2021 (missing out on points differential) and have added some promising pieces to an already decent squad.

Cameron McInnes won't start the season but he will play a key role in how the Sharks move the ball when he does get onto the field. His combination with fellow new recruit Nicho Hynes has a lot of potential. Dale Finucane is an astute addition given the inconsistency the Sharks have played with through the middle in recent years. On the defensive side of the ball, in particular. Add highly touted rookie coach Craig Fitzgibbon and the consistency that comes with his hire and the Sharks are well-positioned to find the extra win and feature in the finals.

The Canberra Raiders suffered a massive blow to their finals chances with Jamal Fogarty ruled out for an extended period. He's not a match-winner himself, but he does all of the work that puts the likes of Jack Wighton, Joseph Tapine, Josh Papalii and Charnze Nicol-Klokstad in positions to succeed. His experience and the control he was likely to take of the side will be sorely missed. But this is an experienced and cohesive group with plenty of options in attack. Provided their defence is up to scratch, the Raiders should be within reach of the finals when Fogarty returns.

There is a lot of excitement around the Gold Coast Titans after their 8th-placed finish in 2021. However, it's worth noting they won only 10 games to get there. The only team to play finals footy with ten wins since 2002 is the Sharks in 2020 - a 20-game season. A new-look spine will need time to gel, too. Any team with AJ Brimson, David Fifita, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Moeaki Fotuaika is going to be competitive but this group may struggle to reach back-to-back finals for only the second time in the club's history given the possible teething issues in the spine.

Punters- TopSport are offering $10 about a team from Queensland brining the premiership back to the sunshine state for the first time since 2015.

The Mathematical Chances

It's roughly Round 20 when the calculators are whipped out as coaches and fans crunch the numbers and determine their path to the finals.

Anticipating congestion around 10th-12th on the ladder, it's the Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors and St. George-Illawarra Dragons that are the most likely to still believe in a finals spot heading into the pointy end of the season.

All three are in an 'a lot needs to go right' position.

Should Kalyn Ponga, Shaun Johnson or Ben Hunt go down with a long term injury then things start to get difficult.

All three playmakers have a relatively stable pack to play behind with the Knights and Warriors, in particular, capable of winning the yardage battle every week with the players filling the middle.

The Knights left edge has match-winning potential despite Ponga spending more time on the right side in 2021.

Shaun Johnson's right edge scored more tries down that side of the field than any other in 2018, 2019 and 2020 before injuries kept him to only ten games in 2021.

With Zac Lomax healthy heading into Round 1, the Dragons right edge could challenge Johnson's as one of the most dangerous in the competition.

All three clubs have bad memories of poor recent seasons, but all three will rightfully believe there is a finals spot available for them in 2022.

Punters- It's shaping up as a brilliant top try scorer fight, and TopSport currently has Manly's Tom Trbojevic slotted in as a $8 favourite for that honour. 

Bottom Feeders

The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs produced an awful 2021 season to finish 16th with only three wins all season. Their name turned 'bye' on the draw in the eyes of many.

They have made some exciting signings. Matt Burton is one of the best young players in the competition while Paul Vaughan and Tevita Pangai Jr. can add some starch to the pack if they behave themselves. They're being mentioned more in Top 8 conversations than those centred around the wooden spoon, but seven wins is a lot to make up in a summer. 

Especially with a brutal draw to start...

The Brisbane Broncos added Adam Reynolds to a young squad over the summer. He's exactly what they needed, but his influence is one that will show over time. It's his control of the side and execution in big moments - two things the Broncos have sorely lacked - where he will make his mark. Reynolds' expert kicking game will only help a defence that conceded 29 points per game last season so much, too. A second spoon in three years can't be ruled out at 11.6%.

Featuring here is all too common for the Wests Tigers but there is hope! For 2023...

Some good signings in positions of need are on their way. However, there is a long 2022 season to navigate first. It's made longer by Adam Doueihi's injury with the 23-year-old not expected to be back until as late as Round 12. Even then, Brien Seeney (NRL Physio) has late this season, if not the start of the next, as "likely the return to his best."

Michael Maguire barely kept hold of his job at the end of last season and it won't take much for the club to move him on in 2022. That disruption has the potential to cause havoc within a squad that hasn't always displayed 100% effort in recent years.

However, it's the North Queensland Cowboys that are the model's favourite to be left holding the unwanted culinary tool at the end of the season.

Like any team at this stage of the year finishing last seems incomprehensible.

A side boasting Jason Taumalolo, Valentine Holmes, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Scott Drinkwater and Chad Townsend should score more than enough points to compete every week. However, their NRL-worst 31.2 points conceded per game in 2021 still leaves a sour taste and it will take time to build faith in any new defensive structures Todd Payten sends them out with to start 2022.

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